The rest of the season

[humbleopinion]

In hopes of changing the subject (it has really gotten dull reading the board with posters saying the same thing over and over again) perhaps we could focus on the rest of the season.  Our schedule has been frontloaded with the best teams in the conference.  We have five losses; four of them were to the top teams in the conference (combined record of 17-4 in conference) and to the Salukis who lost to Drake and UNI this weekend by one point each.  We have yet to face the bottom end of the conference. If we were to have had a poll for the first weeks of January, it would have been optimistic to predict we would have done much better than our record has shown.

It's clear that we won't win the conference, but if we can find a team resembling the one that played Loyola, we still have a chance to salvage the season.

We have twelve conference games left.  Discouraging the comments that have been repeated ad nauseum, what matchups can yield wins for us.  Can we go seven and three to end the season at .500?  If so, what are those games?

[Valpo89]

The problem isn't necessarily the opponent. Most people have simply lost confidence in this team's ability to put together more than one solid effort (play well two games or more in a row).
After Saturday's debacle, maybe the Beacons are due to play well Wednesday. But I will be shocked if Northern Iowa doesn't win by double figures.
As for going 7-3 the rest of the way, that's WAY too optimistic.

[Just Sayin]

The problem isn't necessarily the opponent. Most people have simply lost confidence in this team's ability to put together more than one solid effort (play well two games or more in a row).
After Saturday's debacle, maybe the Beacons are due to play well Wednesday. But I will be shocked if Northern Iowa doesn't win by double figures.
As for going 7-3 the rest of the way, that's WAY too optimistic.

Agreed.

If someone is into probabilities, here they are for Valpo's remaining Schedule (Per KenPom):

Wed Jan 19      101   Northern Iowa   L, 72-68   67   37%   Home       ×   
Sat Jan 22      159   Indiana St.   L, 73-68   69   31%   Away       ×   
Wed Jan 26      121   Bradley   L, 68-67   66   45%   Home       ×   
Sun Jan 30      131   Southern Illinois   L, 67-60   62   26%   Away       ×   
Wed Feb 2      264   Evansville   W, 67-60   63   72%   Home       ×   
Sat Feb 5      159   Indiana St.   W, 71-70   69   54%   Home       ×   
Wed Feb 9      179   Illinois St.   L, 75-71   68   35%   Away       ×   
Sat Feb 12      70   Missouri St.   L, 76-64   65   14%   Away       ×   
Wed Feb 16      29   Loyola Chicago   L, 72-62   64   18%   Home       ×   
Sat Feb 19      264   Evansville   L, 64-63   63   49%   Away       ×   
Wed Feb 23      95   Drake   L, 69-65   65   35%   Home       ×   
Sat Feb 26      121   Bradley   L, 71-63   66   24%   Away       ×

Of course probabilities often mean little when it comes to college basketball.

[Valpo89]

Those probabilities make 7 wins seem even more impossible. Only two above 50 percent. Sad.

[mj]

I'm not sure if we're going to get another win versus the teams we've already played.

So the question becomes how many wins can we get from our 6 games against Evansville, Bradley, and Indiana State.  I think we go 2-4 in those games.

Maybe we pull out a surprise victory somewhere. But I don't see us going better than 5-13.

[VALPO LI]

Out of the 6 Home games left I feel Valpo can get 4.  Bradley, Evansville and Indiana State only have a combined 5-22 record away from their home court.  I like Valpo playing underdog vs. Drake at the ARC.
Valpo can get 2 or 3 on the road.  Evansville on paper looks promising but Valpo has a tough time winning at the Ford Center.  I can see Valpo catching ISUr, ISUb, Bradley or SIU sleeping and getting a W from one or two of them on their home court.

[valpo95]

In hopes of changing the subject (it has really gotten dull reading the board with posters saying the same thing over and over again) perhaps we could focus on the rest of the season.  Our schedule has been frontloaded with the best teams in the conference.  We have five losses; four of them were to the top teams in the conference (combined record of 17-4 in conference) and to the Salukis who lost to Drake and UNI this weekend by one point each.  We have yet to face the bottom end of the conference. If we were to have had a poll for the first weeks of January, it would have been optimistic to predict we would have done much better than our record has shown.

This is a thoughtful analysis of the situation, and I'm glad humbleopinion started the thread, and fully agree that those teams are rightly at the top of the conference. (Many teams will lose at Loyola, at Drake, and at UNI just to be specific.) Beyond the top of the MVC, I should also point out that Valpo has beaten Tulane (4-2, third place in the American), lost to Toledo (5-1, second place in the MAC, and lost to Charlotte (2-1, first place in CUSA-E). Even with the difficulty of the schedule, if Valpo had beaten Loyola and SIU (both winnable games), they would be 3-3 in conference and the arc of the season would look much different.

Rather than speculate about the entirety of the remaining season, the question for me is how they will do over the next six: Four of those games are at home, and the combined record of the opponents is 11-18 in conference. Does the team have the talent to go 5-1? Yes, though 4-2 is more realistic given the level of competition. If the team goes 5-1 or 4-2 and has some momentum, the final six games could be interesting and competitive.



 

[tjjvalpo]

This is great discussion. I have been critical, but frankly mostly disappointed in what I thought would be special season. I have tried to compare past results in Horizon and Midcon (summit) with our play in the MVC. The fact is that we had a pretty special team leading up to us joining MVC with Alec Peters. Our Net rating in MVC is 9th among the 10 teams. But, our net rating in Horizon and Summit is 2nd or 3rd So, what does this mean, this team would likely be 1st or 2nd in Horizon and Summit. We had all hoped that we would compete to be one of the top teams in the MVC this year. The reality is that we turned over majority of roster while the top teams brought back last years rosters with enhancements. In many ways we're are exactly many predicted we would be. The remainder of the season has us playing the bottom half of our conference. I think we could win more than we lose. I am hopeful that the rest of season will be much better and with confidence maybe we can surprise people in the MVC tournament.

[vok22]

This is great discussion. I have been critical, but frankly mostly disappointed in what I thought would be special season. I have tried to compare past results in Horizon and Midcon (summit) with our play in the MVC. The fact is that we had a pretty special team leading up to us joining MVC with Alec Peters. Our Net rating in MVC is 9th among the 10 teams. But, our net rating in Horizon and Summit is 2nd or 3rd So, what does this mean, this team would likely be 1st or 2nd in Horizon and Summit. We had all hoped that we would compete to be one of the top teams in the MVC this year. The reality is that we turned over majority of roster while the top teams brought back last years rosters with enhancements. In many ways we're are exactly many predicted we would be. The remainder of the season has us playing the bottom half of our conference. I think we could win more than we lose. I am hopeful that the rest of season will be much better and with confidence maybe we can surprise people in the MVC tournament.

We are 0-2 the last 2 years against perennial Horizon League bottom feeder UIC. I doubt we'd be second or third if we were still there.

[valpotx]

Agreed.  You cannot use the NET rating to make determinations on conference finish.  We would be middle of the pack in both the HL and SL, with how we are playing currently.

[usc4valpo]

Even if Valpo gets better, will people buy in? Attendance is down, game Atmoshere is below par, no pep band - was Valpo really suitable to compete in the MVC?

[Valpo89]

Even if Valpo gets better, will people buy in? Attendance is down, game Atmoshere is below par, no pep band - was Valpo really suitable to compete in the MVC?

The weather forecast for tonight, plummeting temperatures and impending Lake Effect Snow.
Coming off Saturday's dismal performance, and the previous ass-whipping administered by Northern Iowa, only die-hard Crusader (Beacon) fans will bother to show up tonight.
I predict more cheerleaders than students in the bleachers.

[tjjvalpo]

Good call-I think there were more fans in the chair back seats than bleachers. Frankly, I don't think the 6 pm start time helps either. I have a 45 minute drive to the game in good weather. It is hard to make the 6 pm start times on time. I am frequently walking in as they are announcing the starters.

[humbleopinion]

I predict more cheerleaders than students in the bleachers.

Given the poor student attendance at games prior to Christmas break, the turnout wasn't too bad last night. I hope those that thought that it wasn't worth the effort to attend hear about how exciting of a game that they misses and regret their decision.

[valpopal]

I predict more cheerleaders than students in the bleachers.

Attendance last night was listed as 1414, which is about at the average (1405) for all the conference home games this season. I don't remember seeing so many empty seats during a conference game in the past, even on snowy nights.


[tweet]1484164000191549444[/tweet]

[usc4valpo]

1400? Damn, that's feels like the Tom Smith era at the Hilltop. This is a major problem the university needs to address, and it is more than the coaching.

[Valpo89]

The crowd estimate of 1,414 was generous. There were 15 people upstairs during the anthem, and that swelled to maybe 30 during the game. Maybe 1,000 were there.

[crusader05]

I've said this before but I believe that Valpo is not the type of school where students will just "come out" to a game. They need to feel connected. I always felt that, outside of the big games, even the Alec Peters years it felt like the student engagement was less than during the Ryan B, Erik B etc years.  That was a team that was extremely connect on campus. 

Some of it can be game day atmosphere but that dies down/stops mattering if wins aren't there. This team needs to be a part of campus like they used to be.

[vok22]

As a current college student, albeit not at Valpo, I can tell you that engagement in everything has been absolutely killed by covid. Worse than you may even think. Way worse. It's a major issue, and I go to a large public school with a reputation for being rowdy.

[wh]

From the UNI board:

Originally posted by Schack View Post
I know it varies from year to year but how many wins are usually needed to stay out of Thursday?

The MVC tournament switched to a 10-team format in 1997, so we've had 25 years of 10-team tournament data through 2021.
At 6-12, there have been 16 occurrences and all played in the opening round (wasn't always on Thursday).
At 7-11, there have been 25 occurrences and 84% played the opening round.
At 8-10, there have been 23 occurrences and 52% played the opening round.
At 9-9, there have been 31 occurrences and 13% played the opening round.
At 10-8, there have been 21 occurrences and none played the opening round

So, 8-10 might give us a 1st round bye, but 9-9 is the mark we need we need to hit. If we consistently play with the intensity we showed last night on both ends, 7-4 the rest of the way is far from impossible.

[justducky]

So, 8-10 might give us a 1st round bye, but 9-9 is the mark we need we need to hit. If we consistently play with the intensity we showed last night on both ends, 7-4 the rest of the way is far from impossible.

I now have some hope for the rest of the season, but not much.  Lots of things are in need of improvement if we are to be a threat in St Louis. The final seed is less important than who we face. As of today I would much rather face either Drake or Loyola than UNI or MSU. Key injuries or maybe covid could rapidly change that thinking.

[valpo95]

So, 8-10 might give us a 1st round bye, but 9-9 is the mark we need we need to hit. If we consistently play with the intensity we showed last night on both ends, 7-4 the rest of the way is far from impossible.

The MVC is such a tougher conference than HL. If a team goes 10-8 in conference, it is likely to be third or fourth place. (Over the last 12 years, 10-8 has a team at or tied for third place 5 times, and in fourth place 3 times).  There also are far fewer easy wins throughout the year.

[vok22]

Illinois State just lost to Evansville. Updated Standings and next games:

Loyola: 5-1, vs Southern Illinois
MSU: 6-2, @ Indiana St.
Drake: 5-2 @ Illinois St.
UNI: 5-3, @Evansville
Illinois St. 3-4 vs Drake
Bradley: 4-4 @Valpo
Southern Ill: 3-4 @Loyola
Valpo: 3-5, vs Bradley
Indiana St: 1-5, vs MSU
Evansville: 1-6, vs UNI

If chalk holds in the next round of games (and we beat Bradley at home), we would move into a tie with Bradley for 5th at 4-5, and we would hold the tiebreaker. Bradley is no pushover though, and I doubt all the other favorites will hold strong. But point is we still have some hope. If we truly want to show progress, I want to see us win 4 of our next 5. Home games against Bradley, Evansville, and Indiana St need to be wins. Then pick up a win at Illinois St or Southern Illinois. I would honestly admit to seeing a little bit of progress at that point.

[valpotx]

Since I know that the Valpo stats folks peruse this board, can someone let me know why the below would be the case?  You are telling me that someone who played exclusively at the D-2 level, would still be recognized as the all division record-holder, versus someone that took the leap from D-2 to D-1, but still within the confines of the NCAA?  So someone that plays exclusively in D-3, can eventually lay claim to such a record, but someone who played a combined D-2/D1 cannot?  That makes absolutely no sense. 

Kevion Taylor has made a 3 in 83 consecutive contests dating all the way back to Dec. 15, 2018 while playing for Winona State in a game at Concordia St. Paul. The highest of the NCAA records (Division I, Division II or Division III) for consecutive games with a made 3 is 93 and belongs to Daniel Park of D-II Rollins from Jan. 26, 1994 to Feb. 28, 1997. However, Taylor's streak would not be recognized in the NCAA record book should it reach that point since it is split between Division I and Division II.

[Brandon]

Since I know that the Valpo stats folks peruse this board, can someone let me know why the below would be the case?  You are telling me that someone who played exclusively at the D-2 level, would still be recognized as the all division record-holder, versus someone that took the leap from D-2 to D-1, but still within the confines of the NCAA?  So someone that plays exclusively in D-3, can eventually lay claim to such a record, but someone who played a combined D-2/D1 cannot?  That makes absolutely no sense. 

Kevion Taylor has made a 3 in 83 consecutive contests dating all the way back to Dec. 15, 2018 while playing for Winona State in a game at Concordia St. Paul. The highest of the NCAA records (Division I, Division II or Division III) for consecutive games with a made 3 is 93 and belongs to Daniel Park of D-II Rollins from Jan. 26, 1994 to Feb. 28, 1997. However, Taylor's streak would not be recognized in the NCAA record book should it reach that point since it is split between Division I and Division II.

I agree with you. However, I've talked to the NCAA stats contact about this and basically they don't track an overall record for this category, only the records separated by division. So I don't think they can verify with certainty that there hasn't been someone else to cross over divisions with a longer streak, though it's highly unlikely. Maybe I should just celebrate it as the record from our accounts even if the NCAA won't officially list it in their record book!