Valpo MBB over the last 6 years

[cmack]

I was curious about the trending of the Valpo Basketball performance in the post-Drew era.  I wanted to visually see the performance of the team both in Conference and overall.  Note that 2016-17 was Alec's senior year and the final year in the Horizon League.  I compiled the conference finish along with the Preseason poll.  A few striking notes:
1) Best conference record in the MVC is 9-9
2) Conference Win % since joining the MVC is .389
3) Overall Win % since joinging the MVC is .456

Not sure if I attached the picture the most efficient way.  Did my best.

[Valpo89]

That is an excellent graphic. Take away year 1, and it's a sadder story than I thought.
Lots of injuries and other crazy things have happened during that time. More than other schools? Not sure. It seems like there was always someone missing, things would get better and the next batch of players are the ones who wanted to be here and were good players.
I'm still waiting.

[Chairback]

What's our % if you take out the non D1 victories?  We had a lot of them. 

To me this press conference was the start of the downfall.  Stagnant offense that has carried on for years. 


https://youtu.be/CIWO3dxVnO8

[cmack]

What's our % if you take out the non D1 victories?  We had a lot of them. 

We played 9 such games in the last 5 years (10 in the last six year).  Thankfully we won them all in that span unless I missed one.  Here are our win %'s excluding those:
2016-17    0.719
2017-18    0.433
2018-19    0.419
2019-20    0.529
2020-21    0.308
2021-22    0.393
All Years    0.475
Last 5yrs    0.423

[VULB#62]

I have a statement I want to make but the current threads were not quite the exact medium. I went back and eventually settled on this one. I probably could have found an even better one, but what the heck, this'll do.

Isn't it a crying shame that this forum has reawakened after two years of gradual participatory decline. And the impetus is all, unfortunately, negative.

When I went into lurking mode two years ago because of the stupid decision to cut MSO and MT (I still cringe), the threads were vibrant, regardless of the sport.  MBB game day threads were 2-3+ pages deep. Every game. The game threads were posted 2-3 days in advance.  Poster analyses were always fun to read.
I
By the time I rejoined a few months ago, that spirit had almost evaporated. Sometimes, days went by with only a post or two on what would have been a great topic. This season, some game threads weren't even started until after the tip.

Folks, that is an in-your-face barometer of the alumni community mental state of mind.

This forum is what I believe to be a very accurate microcosm of a very loyal alum and supporter community that wants Valpo to be successful and prosper. And it is DOWN, way DOWN. I only hope the powers that be have the sense to monitor this very important source of feedback. And it's not just the jock thing. Read the conversations on the strategic plan, enrollment, Moody ratings, and other Valpo non-athletic topics. The people on this board are much more than sports fanatics, they are people who give a damn about Valpo.  There are some brilliant assessments coming through.  Padilla and Smart, if they are worth their salaries should at least listen if not pay close attention.

Valpo, if you want to take a real time pulse of your constituency, I am not aware of anything as spot on as this forum.

[justducky]

This forum is what I believe to be a very accurate microcosm of a very loyal alum and supporter community that wants Valpo to be successful and prosper. And it is DOWN, way DOWN. I only hope the powers that be have the sense to monitor this very important source of feedback. And it's not just the jock thing. Read the conversations on the strategic plan, enrollment, Moody ratings, and other Valpo non-athletic topics. The people on this board are much more than sports fanatics, they are people who give a damn about Valpo.  There are some brilliant assessments coming through.  Padilla and Smart, if they are worth their salaries should at least listen if not pay close attention.

Valpo, if you want to take a real time pulse of your constituency, I am not aware of anything as spot on as this forum.

   

Thank you for your many contributions.
Also, was it just a coincidence that you stole the glass half full thing from Milanmiracle after he departed then posted right after him on the recent MVCFans Lottich thread? Hmmmm?

[VULB#62]

IDK, I've used that Avatar since I joined around 2011.  Did a screen shot off a tee shirt that I liked 

[justducky]

Well my thanks to both you and Milan for your spot on help in explaining to MVC fans the many problems we are facing. Hopefully they can show some patience if we can show some wisdom.

[VULB#62]

Actually seeing Milanmiracle on the MVC forum yesterday was quite a surprise. He is missed.

[Dr. T]

"What's our % if you take out the non D1 victories?  We had a lot of them. [/size]To me this press conference was the start of the downfall.  Stagnant offense that has carried on for years."


Yup ... par for the course. At the time, many of us chalked it up to growing pains for a new head coach. Butbott, alas, here we are. Progressing "nicely" ... common denominator = ML making excuses. At this time, making excused for being a top seed. Whether Valpo is the top seed or a bottom feeder, there's excuses + excuses + excuses. One difference, however, is that ML didn't have to address if they were deserving of an NIL bid this year ... 

[historyman]

"What's our % if you take out the non D1 victories?  We had a lot of them. To me this press conference was the start of the downfall.  Stagnant offense that has carried on for years."


Yup ... par for the course. At the time, many of us chalked it up to growing pains for a new head coach. Butbott, alas, here we are. Progressing "nicely" ... common denominator = ML making excuses. At this time, making excused for being a top seed. Whether Valpo is the top seed or a bottom feeder, there's excuses + excuses + excuses. One difference, however, is that ML didn't have to address if they were deserving of an NIL bid this year ... 

[may know]

Copy/pasting this from MVCFans:

KenPom/Attendance
'11 95 / 3362
'12 138 / 3383
'13 65 / 3173
'14 163 / 2833
'15 64 / 3066
'16 42 / 3572
[Lottich]
'17 104 / 3086
'18 150 / 2722
'19 220 / 2611
'20 146 / 2797
'21 193 / na
'22 202 / 1758
'23 289 / 1625

[crusadermoe]

Nuff said I guess. Quite sad. Truthfully I am skeptical of the numbers being that high since 2019.  That sure correlates solidly and the vast majority are non-students.  Students are a very small, but visible and symbolic portion of the game atmosphere within those stats.

Tough to turn around the trend, but not impossible.  The reality is you have to go big in your hire to get the top kids who can change that trajectory.  Is paying two head coaches the way to go?  Or is there a win-win that can be worked out?

[wh]

Actually seeing Milanmiracle on the MVC forum yesterday was quite a surprise. He is missed.

I recall regularly accusing MM of being too negative and pessimistic. He countered that he would rather be surprised by success than devastated by failure. Lesson learned for yours truly.

[justducky]

Actually seeing Milanmiracle on the MVC forum yesterday was quite a surprise. He is missed.

I recall regularly accusing MM of being too negative and pessimistic. He countered that he would rather be surprised by success than devastated by failure. Lesson learned for yours truly.

I'll go a bit further and reflect that the final broken straw for Milanmiracle was the row between him and a3uge about then Horizon League coach of year Brian Wardle and the Green Bay player pants crapping issue. Milan and I were pro Wardle (more or less  ) and I think it is now clear that he has become one of the best coaches in the Valley who outmaneuvers Lottich on a regular basis.

[valpofb16]

Attendance dropped by 50% , enrollment (grad / post grad ) dropped by 45% , worse product on floor.

Not rocket science

[Valpo1993]

If Valpo wasn't going to invest in the proper coach and facilities they should have never joined the Valley.   


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[historyman]

and I think it is now clear that he has become one of the best coaches in the Valley who outmaneuvers Lottich on a regular basis.

My opinion is that every coach in the Missouri Valley has outmaneuvered Lottich this past season except for maybe Pedon at Illinois State and Ragland at Evansville.

[IndyValpo]

Here is something interesting:
Indiana State, Southern Illinois, UIC, Missouri State, Evansville, and Illinois State have longer droughts than we do in making the NCAA.

[David81]

Here is something interesting:
Indiana State, Southern Illinois, UIC, Missouri State, Evansville, and Illinois State have longer droughts than we do in making the NCAA.

IndyValpo, I'm not putting it down your interesting point when I say that I'm not sure if that's the company VU wants to be in. Rather, it may reinforce the notion that there are relevant mid-majors and, well, irrelevant mid-majors, at least when it comes to being in the conversation for post-season tourney bids. After some 20 years of being relevant, Valpo finds itself rather quickly and decisively slipping into that second tier.

During that 20 year period of relevance, I think that most fans assumed that a losing season or even .500ish season was likely to be a one-off, to be followed by a rebound.

I know that many focus on Coach Lottich as the main source of that decline, and I'd have to agree. But I do wonder, along with others, whether the move to the MVC is a contributing factor. I remember thinking when the move was made, hmmm...why not stay in a solid league where you've been consistently competitive? That said, I will let closer followers of the college game overall speculate on whether recent VU teams would've faired noticeably better in the Horizon League.

[VULB#62]

That was my thought as well, David. We're talking fish and pond sizes here. FDU, coming out of the NEC is like Valpo coming out of the Mid-Con. Well deserved, but in each case, the NCAAT qualification was automatic.  Going to the MVC, Valpo took a gamble that it could duplicate their previous success in moving up.  But this time the pond was much bigger and the fish swimming in it had much bigger teeth as well.

In retrospect, Valpo should have studied the Evansville experience more carefully. They, too, came into the MVC  with a great winning tradition and high expectations. But they, like Valpo, are a smaller private university with a smaller alum base, smaller cash pool to draw from, a smaller enrollment than the new conference average, and the larger schools had a demonstrated history of much higher performance over time. But what about Loyola? Loyola got in before us and we were pissed cuz we had a better record in the HL.  Again in retrospect, though private, Loyola did not have the same profile. It had a large alum base, larger enrollment, and had demonstrated an ability to pump bucks into athletics — none of which either E'Ville or Valpo has ever been able to demonstrate - hell, EU dropped football !!.

It's the Peter Principle:  one aspires/moves up to their eventual level of incompetence. Smart people understand that, are careful not to cave into that siren song, and stop short of driving over that cliff.  Interestingly, I fear that Loyola and Butler both lost that smartness and have Peter Principled themselves into irrelevance.  But unlike Valpo and E'Ville,  both those schools have enough money to buy their way out.

Going back to your question.  Lottich and MBB had a much better chance for winning seasons in the HL than the MVC and Valpo would have had a better chance of a bid to the dance over the last six years had we stayed.  And winning attracts recruits as well as fans to games (which has been clearly demonstrated recently).  Hey, unfortunately, it is what it is.

[usc4valpo]

62 - Valpo joined the MVC because of money and an inept Horizon league commissioner. Valparaiso made the right move, the honest issue is that the MVC made the wrong move to invite Valpo. Valpo is currently not committed to compete in the MVC.

[VULB#62]

62 - Valpo joined the MVC because of money and an inept Horizon league commissioner. Valparaiso made the right move, the honest issue is that the MVC made the wrong move to invite Valpo. Valpo is currently not committed to compete in the MVC.

I'm with you SC on the MVC's decision. And I agree the HL was/is a poorly run conference. But I think it's rated higher than the NEC, isn't it? But what confuses me is what I bolded. Valpo had to immediately plow $600k into new video operations. So what money? TV contracts? The MVC is now a one-bid conference with 12 members splitting the pot. How is that different from the HL in terms of a financial windfall? 

[JD24]

That was my thought as well, David. We're talking fish and pond sizes here. FDU, coming out of the NEC is like Valpo coming out of the Mid-Con. Well deserved, but in each case, the NCAAT qualification was automatic.  Going to the MVC, Valpo took a gamble that it could duplicate their previous success in moving up.  But this time the pond was much bigger and the fish swimming in it had much bigger teeth as well. In retrospect, Valpo should have studied the Evansville experience more carefully. They, too, came into the MVC  with a great winning tradition and high expectations. But they, like Valpo, are a smaller private university with a smaller alum base, smaller cash pool to draw from, a smaller enrollment than the new conference average, and the larger schools had a demonstrated history of much higher performance over time. But what about Loyola? Loyola got in before us and we were pissed cuz we had a better record in the HL.  Again in retrospect, though private, Loyola did not have the same profile. It had a large alum base, larger enrollment, and had demonstrated an ability to pump bucks into athletics — none of which either E'Ville or Valpo has ever been able to demonstrate - hell, EU dropped football !!. It's the Peter Principle:  one aspires/moves up to their eventual level of incompetence. Smart people understand that, are careful not to cave into that siren song, and stop short of driving over that cliff.  Interestingly, I fear that Loyola and Butler both lost that smartness and have Peter Principled themselves into irrelevance.  But unlike Valpo and E'Ville,  both those schools have enough money to buy their way out. Going back to your question.  Lottich and MBB had a much better chance for winning seasons in the HL than the MVC and Valpo would have had a better chance of a bid to the dance over the last six years had we stayed.  And winning attracts recruits as well as fans to games (which has been clearly demonstrated recently).  Hey, unfortunately, it is what it is.

I think all had one thing in common. Coach leaves and talent is lessened right at the same time of the move.

[usc4valpo]

62 - not talking about the NEC. also, Loyola went to the FF and Sweet 16 so they go extra cash for that. The other issue to consider was that Valpo was in better financial shape 7 years ago

Regarding $600k for video and $700k payout for a new coach over a 6 year period - this is what it takes to compete in D1.