Thoughts on the season

mj · March 05, 2022, 10:40:12 PM

I figured we should start a new thread to recap this season. What was good. What was bad. Where to we go from here.

Here are my thoughts in no particular order:

Obviously, when compared to pre-season expectations, this season was a disappointment. There were a lot of blown games and missed opportunities. I think we were better than our 6-12 record suggested. Probably not a lot better though.

I've been on the fire Lottich bandwagon for awhile, but I've got to admit that I'm somewhat bullish on Valpo for next year. Maybe I'm overly optimistic but I thought this team really started to show their potential during Arch Madness. Edwards demonstrated a "composed aggressiveness" that could make him one of the best players in the league. It just seemed like this team was playing like, a team. Of course, we missed our shots and that was that, but it's not like we were blown out or not competitive.

I'm waiting to see how many players transfer, if any. If Krikke, Kithier, King, and Edwards all stay, then that's a pretty good nucleus to build around. I like Preston's game a lot; he reminds me of Jake Diebler in some ways. Add a healthy Young. I think there's some reason for optimism. Of course, if we have a repeat like like off-season then Lottich should be shown the door immediately.

If I had to draw a parallel, this season feels like more of the 09-10 season in the Horizon League than the 08-09 dumpster fire season. It's not a direct comparison by any means and I'm not suggesting that we're about to lead the MVC anytime soon.

valpotx · March 06, 2022, 06:11:49 AM

Agreed. That is a great point that is often missed when you just look at our record. We were close/competitive in just about every game this season. Were we clutch? No. However, having been in those situations this season, if the vast majority of players return, I think that we are in good position for a top 5 finish.

usc4valpo · March 06, 2022, 06:57:15 AM

My big concern is Valpo's recent apathy toward the basketball and that their are issues requiring more attention. Schools like Valpo, Drake, Bradley and Evansville are goin through financial difficulties recently. Padilla will get us through this mess, but basketball issues will be secondary in the short term.

elephtheria47 · March 06, 2022, 07:07:57 AM

Failure. We had some nice pieces. No excuse why our record is as bad as what it is.

AB · March 06, 2022, 09:56:19 AM

Injuries to key play makers, consistent lack of defensive intensity and executing at the end of both halves cost us a handful of games. The difference in this conference between wins and losses is not for lack of talent. Winning will be bring the fans back, hence the apathy right now. Plus when players stay longer than two years, Peters, Ryan, locals catch on. Lets how Lets see what happens on twitter in the coming days and then we can have a better idea of how our roster looks for next season. Over under still at 3 transfers.

valpopal · March 06, 2022, 10:22:53 AM

Only 48 hours after Valpo's final game of the tournament, I am already seeing excuses or explanations for the terrible and unacceptable 6-12 conference record leading to another Thursday play-in game, and there are suggestions the season wasn't quite as bad as it looks because there were some close losses, as if those were positive signs rather than indications of the problems with late-game strategy and performance. In addition, I see comments offering optimism for next year if only the same players stay instead of transfer. (Yes, a healthy and more experienced core of Kithier, Krikke, King, Edwards, etc. could be better, but so will the conference, particularly with the additions of Murray State and Belmont.)

However, after 5 years of mediocre (at best) play in the MVC following repeated enthusiastic preseason forecasts, enough is enough. I am not going to harbor any hopes for potential. I will not believe in progress until I witness victory on the court next season. Wishing for wins and trusting in their delivery is like waiting for the promised new mascot that we were assured would appear by the beginning of basketball season and yet remains a figment of everyone's imagination. If the program couldn't even provide a symbolic mascot, which is totally in its power, I am not confident we will see anything more substantial in areas that are less controllable. I no longer give Valpo basketball any benefit of the doubt that I once did. Unfortunately, the trust this program fostered in fans for so long has now been squandered.

mj · March 06, 2022, 12:08:12 PM

To clarify, any optimism I have for this team is based on the last two games of the season. Yes, this is a small sample size and maybe I'm putting too much into it. But Valpo looked very different, compared to other games this season.

I'm also tired of the optimistic pre-season predictions followed by disappointing seasons. Lottich and others didn't do the program any favors by talking up King and the other transfers. But let's be honest, this program was in deep trouble a year ago. We could have become another Evansville. At least the bleeding has been stopped. In medical terms, our condition is serious, not critical. Of course this could all change in the next few weeks.

Valpo89 · March 06, 2022, 01:06:12 PM

Quote from: mj on March 06, 2022, 12:08:12 PM
To clarify, any optimism I have for this team is based on the last two games of the season. Yes, this is a small sample size and maybe I'm putting too much into it. But Valpo looked very different, compared to other games this season.

I'm also tired of the optimistic pre-season predictions followed by disappointing seasons. Lottich and others didn't do the program any favors by talking up King and the other transfers. But let's be honest, this program was in deep trouble a year ago. We could have become another Evansville. At least the bleeding has been stopped. In medical terms, our condition is serious, not critical. Of course this could all change in the next few weeks.

I wouldn't get overly excited about a third win over Evansville.
I calculated the won-loss record of the games Valpo won, minus East-West and Trinity Christian. I don't have the numbers in front of me right now, but the winning percentage of the opponents Valpo actually defeated was 39 percent. Five of the wins were against Evansville (3) and Indiana State (2). So we can hang our hat on the fact we're not the worst team in Indiana, I suppose.

nkvu · March 06, 2022, 01:08:11 PM

This was the year when I finally went from expecting to win and being disappointed when we didn't, to expecting to lose and being mildly surprised when we won. I also went from watching every game I could to not caring whether I watched or not. I expect this attitude to carry over to next year, and I don't like it much. I'd like to be optimistic and think maybe next year we'll start winning most of those close games we lost this year, but I guess I'll have to see it to believe it. A lot of "maybe's" would have to fall the right way for that to happen. But stranger things have happened, like the Bengals coming from nowhere to make it to the Super Bowl. So I guess there's hope.

vu72 · March 06, 2022, 02:25:39 PM

Excuses or not, Valpo was relying on experienced transfers plus Ben and Sheldon. Connor, maybe, and nobody has yet to tell anyone why he disappeared. So we relied on Ben, who missed the first 3 D1 losses, with Kobe out even longer. Ben and Kobe were our two best scorers. I really think the bigger problem was the loss of Trevor. He averaged 9.3 ppg plus 3.8 rebounds and was obviously the true floor general we needed. He was replaced by two freshman who combined, did not get to Trevor's numbers--actually combined were 4.1 ppg less than Trevor's.

Throw in the missed games from Thomas and his 10.1 ppg and more importantly his 6.6 rebounds and there you have it. A complete cluster.

valpopal · March 06, 2022, 03:23:53 PM

"Never make excuses. Your friends don't need them and your foes won't believe them."
― John Wooden

elephtheria47 · March 06, 2022, 04:27:12 PM

We all believe in VU and have strong interests in the success of the university. That's why we are here.

At the same time, it's the fewest games (1) we have ever attended and didn't even turn on more games than ever before. And we're not the only ones. Something has to change.

valpo64 · March 06, 2022, 08:30:02 PM

One of the most outstanding things about this past season was the fact that Kobe missed the first 9 games of the season, Kithier missed 10 out of our 18 Conference games, Krikke out for some games, plus the numerous other injuries throughout the year. Is it any wonder why we were not consistent for the entire season? No cohesion or a solid chance to build team chemistry over the course of the season. I don't care who we played, but we looked better for our 2 games in the Tourney than any 2 game stretch during the season. We played Loyola real tough both games , beat No. Iowa and let a few slip away, and flat out blew a number of other potential wins. Let's forget this season and see what happens next year. I look forward to it.

usc4valpo · March 07, 2022, 06:53:08 AM

64 - I am glad you are enjoying the brown and good keep l aid, and I will be more optimistic once new staffing gets in place.

IndyEIT777 · March 07, 2022, 08:22:39 AM

I came into this season thinking this was Lottich's last chance to get me to believe he can be the guy and he absolutely failed. No matter what we do this offseason, I am not going to be hyped for next season if Lottich is still at the helm which he more than likely will be.

Another theme I see after the last 5 seasons in particular is fans saying "where we would be if we didn't have all these injuries"? Maybe you can make that claim if it happens one season, but when it happens repeatedly, there's something wrong with the player development/conditioning aspect. Here Drake has severe injuries to some of their top guys the last couple of years and they still made the MVC championship both years and won an NCAA game last season. I'm tired of the injury excuse. Either fix that problem internally or bring guys in that aren't injury prone.

I wish I had anything good to say regarding this season, but I really can't come up with anything. I guess I can say I hope we decide to go down the route of bringing more transfers up from D-II than bringing guys down from the Big Ten. Most of the guys we bring in from power conferences are on the bench at their schools for a reason. I didn't hate the play of King, Kithier and especially Anderson when he was healthy, but they also didn't really get us close to achieving a goal at a conference championship. Kevion at least was our most consistent shooter and scorer this year and I'd be more inclined to get guys that are imo, more motivated to jump up and play at our level than power conference guys having to transfer down.

NativeCheesehead · March 07, 2022, 01:19:54 PM

3 Thoughts:

1. For those not subbed to The Victory Bell, PO had an excellent breakdown on player retention and the # of players in the championship game that had played 2+ years in the MVC. I won't spoil more but it's a deep dive and well worth a read.

2. Question for PO: Can we expect, or can you solicit, a comment from the AD on the MBB program? I don't think many of us expect he's willing (or able) to move on from ML, but I'll take even something bland like "I look forward to sitting down with Matt and figuring out how to better compete.....yada, yada, yada." I know he's a lame duck but I would feel a little better if MLB even acknowledged our last couple of years are not acceptable record wise.

3. It may seem like piling on, but I'm joining the chorus of those who will not be renewing my season tickets next year, assuming Matt is retained. The on court product has been covered here, but the atmosphere is also horrible. In addition to no pep band, I find it insulting that they run the same middle school boys club team out for 15 halftimes a year. I don't know of a better way to say "Screw your entertainment value" than that. I know not every game can have the Pacers dunk crew, but a handful of halftimes like that, a couple of local marching bands and/or a couple of Greek Life competitions, and you're set. And while we're at it, maybe let's find someone else to run the shot clock next year. We seemed to have 2-3 screw-ups there every game.

Pgmado · March 07, 2022, 02:43:55 PM

Quote from: NativeCheesehead on March 07, 2022, 01:19:54 PM
3 Thoughts:

1. For those not subbed to The Victory Bell, PO had an excellent breakdown on player retention and the # of players in the championship game that had played 2+ years in the MVC. I won't spoil more but it's a deep dive and well worth a read.

2. Question for PO: Can we expect, or can you solicit, a comment from the AD on the MBB program? I don't think many of us expect he's willing (or able) to move on from ML, but I'll take even something bland like "I look forward to sitting down with Matt and figuring out how to better compete.....yada, yada, yada." I know he's a lame duck but I would feel a little better if MLB even acknowledged our last couple of years are not acceptable record wise.

3. It may seem like piling on, but I'm joining the chorus of those who will not be renewing my season tickets next year, assuming Matt is retained. The on court product has been covered here, but the atmosphere is also horrible. In addition to no pep band, I find it insulting that they run the same middle school boys club team out for 15 halftimes a year. I don't know of a better way to say "Screw your entertainment value" than that. I know not every game can have the Pacers dunk crew, but a handful of halftimes like that, a couple of local marching bands and/or a couple of Greek Life competitions, and you're set. And while we're at it, maybe let's find someone else to run the shot clock next year. We seemed to have 2-3 screw-ups there every game.

1. Thanks for the plug.
2. It is my intention to take a deep look at everything over the next several weeks. This will include talking to the key figures (MLB, ML, etc.) What has gone wrong, what can be fixed, what is needed, etc. Obviously I think everyone knows MLB is on the way out and someone else is on the way in. It's a fascinating dynamic.
3. I'll just settle for Valpo not inviting Chesterton to Loyola games, Lake Central to Drake games or Portage to Illinois State games. Please recognize the school colors of the opposition when planning on which middle school team is brought in.

usc4valpo · March 07, 2022, 07:29:57 PM

For Drake this year,3 of their starters were from NW Indiana. Just blows my mind away - why are we so inept?

DuneHwx · March 08, 2022, 12:44:07 PM

No insider info, but you have to think that facilities play a decent role.

David81 · March 13, 2022, 08:47:38 PM

I'm going to share a longer-term impression, and I will defer to closer followers of VU's MBB program to tell me whether it's an overwrought one.

I attended VU during its early DI years (77-81). During that time, the biggest MBB event was when DePaul brought its #1-ranked team (featuring Mark Aguirre, Terry Cummings, and Clyde Bradshaw, coached by Ray Meyer) to Hilltop. When the Blue Demons took the floor for their warm-ups, many in the crowd quietly stood, as if we didn't quite believe that such collegiate hoops royalty was actually in our presence. VU gave DePaul a decent contest in the first half, before giving way to the inevitable double-digit loss.

Like many alums of that era, I didn't start paying attention to VU hoops again until the Bryce Drew years, which kicked off a long period of steadily being in the mix for post-season play, including the NCAA tourney.

But today, as the NCAA bracket was announced, followed by news of the NIT and other tourneys filling out, it feels like VU is at the tipping point of continuing to be relevant to that conversation. I'm not suggesting that Valpo is returning to the circa 1980 days of fans standing in quiet attention because a great team has taken the floor, but I think there's a risk of falling into the vast sea of unremarkable mid-major teams that serve as W-L fodder for better teams.

justducky · March 13, 2022, 09:46:24 PM

Quote from: David81 on March 13, 2022, 08:47:38 PMBut today, as the NCAA bracket was announced, followed by news of the NIT and other tourneys filling out, it feels like VU is at the tipping point of continuing to be relevant to that conversation. I'm not suggesting that Valpo is returning to the circa 1980 days of fans standing in quiet attention because a great team has taken the floor, but I think there's a risk of falling into the vast sea of unremarkable mid-major teams that serve as W-L fodder for better teams.

All of us are equally concerned and afraid. None of us know exactly how to reverse this decline. Our plight and frustration also helps explain our gigantic falloff of postings, posters and tolerance for dissent.

Quote from: NativeCheesehead on March 07, 2022, 01:19:54 PMFor those not subbed to The Victory Bell, PO had an excellent breakdown on player retention and the # of players in the championship game that had played 2+ years in the MVC. I won't spoil more but it's a deep dive and well worth a read.

Quote from: Pgmado on March 07, 2022, 02:43:55 PMIt is my intention to take a deep look at everything over the next several weeks. This will include talking to the key figures (MLB, ML, etc.) What has gone wrong, what can be fixed, what is needed, etc. Obviously I think everyone knows MLB is on the way out and someone else is on the way in. It's a fascinating dynamic.

My apologies to Paul but my 21-22 disappointment has been sufficient to bring to question my future as a Valpo diehard. Thus no Victory Bell subscription while I clear my brain of this season. Sorry.

mj · March 13, 2022, 10:28:41 PM

Quotebut I think there's a risk of falling into the vast sea of unremarkable mid-major teams that serve as W-L fodder for better teams.

The Drew family was an unbelievable asset to Valpo. But not only were they an asset, they were an asset that required no maintenance. Turn it on, watch it win (at least in the late 90s and beyond). In many ways, the university didn't capitalize as much as they could have with that success.

Getting back to that level is going to take commitment. It's going to take work. That commitment has to start at the top with the Board. If Valpo still has the hands off attitude of the Drew years, then we will be an unremarkable mid-major team. And I think Valpo will suffer in the long run.

The good news is that President Padilla is someone who understands how athletics can benefit a school. The other thing is that Valpo still has the history of success; the records of the Drew years are etched in stone. We will always get good publicity from "The Shot." That's an asset that will fade over time, but never go away completely.

David81 · March 13, 2022, 11:49:26 PM

Quote from: mj on March 13, 2022, 10:28:41 PM
Quotebut I think there's a risk of falling into the vast sea of unremarkable mid-major teams that serve as W-L fodder for better teams.

The good news is that President Padilla is someone who understands how athletics can benefit a school. The other thing is that Valpo still has the history of success; the records of the Drew years are etched in stone. We will always get good publicity from "The Shot." That's an asset that will fade over time, but never go away completely.

Yes, Pres. Padilla's grasp of the value of a successful sports program as a complement to a quality academic institution offers reason for optimism in this regard. But it won't be an easy revive, not in a competitive conference like the MVC. I just took a look at Belmont's record, and they'll be coming into the conference on the heels of an NIT appearance. This is where VU should be.

valpopal · March 14, 2022, 10:42:28 AM

Yesterday was the 24th anniversary of Bryce's shot (March 13, 1998), nearly a quarter of a century. If you were asked then where the Valpo program would be in 25 years, would you envision something different from where it is today? I remember the great excitement at the time, especially on campus. I would have been pleased to see the continuing success on the court until the last five years, which have been a disappointment. I would have hoped for the kind of program growth witnessed at Gonzaga. In fact, twenty years ago I spoke to the university faculty senate about a proposal modeling the development of athletics at Valpo after the Gonzaga model, a private religious based university not much larger than VU. My recommendation was not followed. I have been struck by the differing directions of Gonzaga and Valparaiso since then, especially this week as Gonzaga is the tournament's #1 seed. From m y 1998 perspective, I would be surprised to see the seeming lack of enthusiasm on campus currently for VU basketball and the relatively unchanged physical state of the ARC. I also would be dismayed by the failure to capitalize and build fully on the publicity of that national moment, a gift that was not exploited but apparently was squandered.

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bigmosmithfan_2 · March 14, 2022, 07:54:07 PM

First off, great points by all in this thread, especially valpopal, mj and David81. This thread is so good it pulled me in from a long hibernation on this board.

I think the unfortunate reality for Valpo right now is that we are at an important crossroads, and VU either needs to step up, invest and put the program into the upper echelon of Valley programs, or it continues on the same path, and watch us regress into the Tom Smith era again. (To be clear -- I'm not knocking Smith's coaching acumen when I say that. I'm referring to the budgetary constraints, extreme fan apathy and administrative neglect that led the program to be a joke from its Division I debut until Homer's fifth season).

Quite frankly, I don't want to hear about financial issues being the reason why we can't make a coaching change or either build a new facility or completely to-the-bones uprade and reno of the ARC. Those are excuses, and we're going on nearly two decades now of excuse-making as to why Valpo refuses to invest in its signature athletic program. We promised the Horizon League we'd build better facilities when we joined in 2007. Didn't happen. We promised Homer and then Bryce in the early to mid-2010s that we'd upgrade the facilities on multiple occasions. Didn't happen. We made iron-clad commitments to the Valley that we'd do so when we joined. Here we are, five years into our membership and there isn't so much as an artist's rendering, much less a plan to get it done. What are we getting instead? More excuses. Quite frankly, they'd be justified in threatening to kick us out for not moving on this commitment by now.

As for Coach Lottich, this is the fourth iteration of his roster with no discernible progress on the floor, the same disorganized offense, the same inability to hold leads, the same issues at the foul line, the same issues with player defections year after year. It's clear now he was a panic hire by our AD and the decision to not engage a national search after Bryce left will go down in infamy in VU's athletics history. The decision to retain him is only compounding the problem. (Lest you think this is overkill, I point you in the direction of Ball State. They made a poor hire in the wake of a MAC championship and their coach being hired away by Houston, and kept his successor for a few extra years rather than paying the buyout when it was clear he wasn't the guy. That was 22 years ago, and the Cardinals have not sniffed an NCAA Tournament berth since and are about to embark on their fifth coaching search in that time).

So what to do? Well, it's clear that our AD is not going to make a change on his way out the door. But he should absolutely sit with Coach Lottich and insist on changes in his leadership of the program, with clear metrics spelled out in writing for the next AD to refer to at this time next year.

As for the facilities? The time for talk is over. No more "oh, we have a good home court advantage when attendance is good" or "we don't fill the seats we have now." No more "we don't have the money for this right now." We don't know what money is available for a project like this because WE SIMPLY HAVE NEVER TRIED TO RAISE ANY. Put a fundraising plan in place, sound off potential corporate donors in the county, Region, and Chicago, talk to the city to see what sort of partnerships might be available (the mayor of Valpo is a former VU athlete, after all). Pay for an artist's rendering of what a new facility could look like. It doesn't have to be the final version -- just a vision. Give fans (and more importantly, potential donors) something to believe in and work toward. This "well the university has other needs" is a false zero-sum game. There are people who would donate to a new athletics facility who will never donate to other projects at the university and vice versa. A $20M donation from someone who wants to see their name on a basketball arena does not mean that this person would have donated $20M to the university for other purposes. Development doesn't work that way, no matter how much university fundraisers wish it would.

In short, take ownership of the current state of the program and work to improve it, both from a personnel standpoint and a physical facilities standpoint. And quite frankly, it's going to be hard to do too much to help the former without addressing the latter. VU has very little to offer talented coaches and players right now compared to our peers in the MVC. That's a problem, and everyone should be sounding the alarm. The lack of urgency on the university and AD's part has been a slap in the face to longtime fans who sat through the lean years of the 70s, 80s and early 90s and have done their part to maintain the success that began a quarter-century ago.

The good news? President Padilla has shown he gets the importance of athletics so far. And it's not too late to fix this.

The bad news? It soon may very well be.

(As an aside, the fact that some still point to the video boards in the ARC as some sort of commitment delivered by the university is insulting. First off, those video boards are a decade old. Secondly, they were almost entirely paid for with HL funds from Butler's Final Four run. And Hilltop Gym cosmetic changes absolutely define "bare minimum." Stop citing these things as progress. They are not).