2022-23 Season

[vu84v2]

You need two things to draw fans to games and attention from a wider range of fans: perceived quality of the team and perceived quality of the opponents. Having only one is not sufficient. I agree that improving the perceived quality of opponents is relatively pointless until the perceived quality of the team is improved dramatically, but attendance and attention will not improve significantly until both are accomplished.

In regards to "putting this all on Coach Lottich", he is completely responsible for the performance of the program (within reasonable expectations, but those expectations are way above the current level of achievement). Being completely responsible includes adjusting to changes outside the program (e.g., transfer portal, etc.). It is no different than it is for an executive who runs a business. By all accounts he seems to be a great person, but not successfully adapting to change is a legitimate reason for dismissal of any executive.

[truth219]

I just watched a YouTube clip from when the students did the Harlem shake. I loved it. If we do part ways with Matt at the end of the year, one candidate who may take the job Erik buggs

[mj]

It wouldn't surprise me if Lottich becomes a successful head coach one day. Unfortunately it won't be at Valpo. He needs to become an assistant for an older successful coach to learn the finer points of the game.

Lottich wasn't ready to be a head coach when Bryce left. Instead he was thrust into the position because he was next man up, after Roger Powell, and Valpo was afraid (or too cheap) to look outside. To use a baseball analogy, it's like we called up a Single A pitcher to the majors and just let him struggle.

Our run to the MVC championship game in 2020 didn't help the program because it helped justify an extension, when it was already clear that Lottich had major flaws as a coach. At the end of day, it's not working out for neither Valpo nor Lottich and everyone should move on.

It should be a huge scandal that Valpo took a major asset of the University and ran it into the ground. It would be like if the Chapel burned down because of neglect. Valpo has been struggling with finances and enrollment the past few years and we trashed the one thing that gave us national exposure on a consistent basis.

At this point, I think we hope that we get a coach at the end of his career (like Rick Majerus at SLU) who can begin to turn this program around before handing it off to someone younger.

[valpolaw]

The basketball team's poor performance is just the start. Changing the mascot name to Beacon was another failure with a complete joke of a logo. The least they could've done was change the colors from brown and yellow to something more attractive while they were unnecessarily changing everything else. It's 2022, not 1980. In this day of marketing, the brown and yellow  is atrocious and can't be good for business. 

[valpo64]

Yeah, you're right.  But those 2 new dogs really make the program something special.  NOT!  I didn't think anything could be worse than the name "Beacons" but the University sure found a way to top that fiasco with the 2 dogs.  What a joke!

[valpolaw]

I had forgotten that they took Beacon and stretched it into two dogs. If you were trying to run a business in the ground, it seems that you'd be following the steps they've been sadly doing

[truth219]

Tom Crean?

[mj]

Tom Crean?

Bruce Weber?

[usc4valpo]

Chris Collins, Andy Enfield after this season?

[crusadermoe]

Greg Tonagel.  Just a thought that we could recruit lower ceiling kids who will go through walls. Keep them for 3-4 years and just out work everyone. 

Nostalgic yes.  Practical and lower risk in the current budget scenario? Yes.

Downside...You fall off the grid for a couple of years in terms of recruiting outside the region.  But the high upside kids you bring in will transfer out anyway after you coach them up. I don't see the Valpo NIL offers going real high to prevent transfers. That's the football story these days for all but the top 10 bluebloods.   

Downside: Faculty will clamor even harder to go D3 but maybe that is our new reality.  A lot of the faculty wanted that move in the late 80s before Homer bailed out our D-1 ability by getting Bryce and the NCAA bids. 

[valpopal]

The Coaches Database currently lists Matt Lottich among four Division I coaches "at the end of the line at their current school." The others are Jeff Capel (Pitt), Mark Fox (Cal), and Bobby Hurley (Ariz. St.). The comments:


Six years ago, Lottich became the first Valpo head coach from outside the Drew family since 1988. But after winning the 2017 Horizon title, the program moved to the MVC and have finished above .500 just once since. There are different standards for mid-majors but Valpo has a strong track record that includes nine NCAA Tournament bids since 1996. Last year's team started by losing two exhibition games to D-II's at home and finished in 7th at 6-12 (13-17 overall). That brings Lottich's record since joining the MVC to 72-77 (35-55). Meanwhile, Valpo will attract some quality candidates whenever they are back in the market.

[usc4valpo]

I thought it was just a few vocal clowns suggesting Valpo moves to D3. I think there are better candidates out there.

[vu84v2]

I thought it was just a few vocal clowns suggesting Valpo moves to D3. I think there are better candidates out there.

It is just a few vocal faculty members (I won't refer to them as clowns...they are just wrong). To my knowledge (from people I know at Valpo), there is no consideration of this option.

If it came to hiring a new coach, Greg Tonagel would be a very interesting option - but I doubt that an agreement could be reached.

[David81]

I did one of those "where were we 20 years ago?" dives and looked at the 2002-03 season on the VU athletics website:
https://cdn.streamlinehosting.net/valpoathletics/media/basketball-men/2002-03/boxscores_stats/TEAMCUME.HTM

A 20-11 record overall, including 12-2 in conference and a 2-pt. loss to Iowa in the first round of the NIT. Not one of VU's greatest teams, but one very representative of the many solid 20+ win seasons.

What struck me was the seriously tough non-conference schedule, including big programs like Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Purdue. There also was a heartbreaking 2 pt. loss at Notre Dame. And more painfully by comparison to today, quality home wins over Samford and Belmont.

I know it's just one season, but I think it's a fair snapshot comparison that illustrates the decline of the program in terms of performance and quality of schedule.

[valpopal]

I did one of those "where were we 20 years ago?" dives and looked at the 2002-03 season on the VU athletics website:
https://cdn.streamlinehosting.net/valpoathletics/media/basketball-men/2002-03/boxscores_stats/TEAMCUME.HTM

A 20-11 record overall, including 12-2 in conference and a 2-pt. loss to Iowa in the first round of the NIT. Not one of VU's greatest teams, but one very representative of the many solid 20+ win seasons.

What struck me was the seriously tough non-conference schedule, including big programs like Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Purdue. There also was a heartbreaking 2 pt. loss at Notre Dame. And more painfully by comparison to today, quality home wins over Samford and Belmont.

I know it's just one season, but I think it's a fair snapshot comparison that illustrates the decline of the program in terms of performance and quality of schedule.

Check the attendance figures for the season. The 13 home contests averaged 4377 per game! Last night's attendance was 1070. It is disheartening what has happened to this program.

[valpotx]

That was a fun season, and one in which we garnered At-Large consideration.  That Iowa NIT game came down to the final seconds, and we had an offensive rebound in the waning seconds to tie, but Antti Nikkila fumbled the ball out of bounds, before he could go back up.  Heartbreaking loss.  For those that don't know their Valpo history, that was the 1 season with Scott Drew as HC, before he left for what was a dumpster fire at Baylor. 

[Valpo17]

Thank the previous administration for this debacle
Going to a league we cannot compete in -especially with our resources
Not doing a nation wide search for a coach
Honestly it will take years to revamp the program-if it can be done at all
We are totally irrelevant -
My family had season tickets but gave them up-no thanks-
Its a shame

[David81]

Thank the previous administration for this debacle
Going to a league we cannot compete in -especially with our resources
Not doing a nation wide search for a coach
Honestly it will take years to revamp the program-if it can be done at all
We are totally irrelevant -
My family had season tickets but gave them up-no thanks-
Its a shame

To be fair, there was some genuine enthusiasm on this board for the MVC move. Though I understood the appeal, I sensed it might be a mistake. I thought that the Horizon League gave Valpo the best ongoing opportunity for some level of post-season play.

Then again, it didn't help that the first MVC season came right after losing Alec Peters. And had JFL stayed, we may not be having the same conversation.

A couple of big breaks in the right direction -- a really good transfer + a Peters/Broekhoff/Oppland kinda guy who stays 4 yrs -- can turn around the situation quickly, but VU needs to put itself in a position to catch those breaks. I don't think we're there now.

[valpopal]

To be fair, there was some genuine enthusiasm on this board for the MVC move. Though I understood the appeal, I sensed it might be a mistake. I thought that the Horizon League gave Valpo the best ongoing opportunity for some level of post-season play.

Yes, the overwhelming consensus on this board was that a move to the MVC was a correct one. However, many on the board also advised a full-press approach in the transition rather than complacency or apathy. For instance, at the time, I reminded everyone of the once-in-a-lifetime publicity burst that happened after the Sweet Sixteen run and Bryce's famous shot, a gift opportunity for raising funds and enhancing the facilities that was squandered over subsequent years by the university. Imagine what other universities would have done with such a bonus circumstance!


I suggested the move to the MVC coupled with the previous season's appearance in the NIT finals and all the national publicity that came with it, gave VU a second chance to capitalize and promote the program, especially at a point where the economy was booming. I cautioned that history should not repeat itself with a blown opportunity for fundraising and development of facilities.


There were lengthy threads on this board with suggestions and recommendations for improving the physical atmosphere and game-day experience. However, the administration counterproductively focused on a priority of removing images of the Crusader as well as changing the team name and mascot rather than on significant improvements to the program's process and products, alienating many of the most supportive fans and donors, dividing the base rather than engaging them in a productive campaign to strengthen Athletics. If one purposely wanted a way to undermine the program, it would look something like this.   


Therefore, the move to the MVC was a correct decision. However, let's place accountability where it should be; the lack of will by the administration to follow up with a strategic plan for investment and success has led to the dismal situation we now find six years later, still absent a strategic plan let alone any actual substantial action. If there is any chance of recovery and reestablishing Valpo's stature as a well-respected mid-major, the administration needs to enact immediately a short-term plan (no more than three years) to overhaul all aspects of the athletics program—fundraising, facilities, personnel, recruiting, publicity, promotion, competitive expectations, etc. The arrival of AD Small has offered a perfect excuse for such an overhaul.     

[VULB#62]

Check the attendance figures for the season. The 13 home contests averaged 4377 per game! Last night's attendance was 1070. It is disheartening what has happened to this program.

For greater context and your additional analysis:

SEASON   COACH   RECORD   AV. HOME ATT.
2021-22   M. Lottich   14-18   1758
2020-21   M. Lottich   10-18   92 (Covid)
2019-20   M. Lottich   19-16   2797
2018-19   M. Lottich   15-18   2821
2017-18   M. Lottich   15-17   2722
2016-17   M. Lottich   24-9    3086
2015-16   B. Drew   30-7     3573
2014-15   B. Drew   28-6     3065
2013-14   B. Drew   18-16   2833
2012-13   B. Drew   26-8     3173
2011-12   B. Drew   22-12   3383
2010-11   H. Drew   23-12   3362
2009-10   H. Drew   15-17   2739
2008-09   H. Drew   9-22     2973
2007-08   H. Drew   22-14   3666
2006-07   H. Drew   16-15   3520
2005-06   H. Drew   17-12   3354
2004-05   H. Drew   15-16   4174
2003-04   H. Drew   18-13   3944
2002-03   S. Drew   20-11   4376
2001-02   H. Drew   25-8    4530

As I see it, the overall home attendance is trending downward over the past 22 seasons regardless of W-L record -- i.e.,  4,000+ averages appear to be a thing of the past.  However, it is pretty clear that, on a season to season basis, winning records produce upward bumps in attendance in the face of the overall trend and losing seasons generally produce the opposite. And despite the overall downward trend, it is also reasonable to expect that a winning Valpo MBB program should still be able to consistently generate season average attendance figures in the 3000+ range.  The 3,000-3,300 window appears to be the Valpo attendance sweet spot.  And we are talking averages here so that means you can expect the occasional 4,000+ single games against the right opponents in a meaningful game -- the 2015-16 season (St. Mary's and FSU) is a good example.

Notice too that Lottich enjoyed a spillover in his first season from the previous NIT run and having AP stay. But interestingly, the drop off in attendance once Alec graduated, and the team had three losing seasons out of four, resulted in average attendance figures only dropping into the 2,700 - 2,800 range (what, maybe 10%?). What strikes me is how the one Covid season coupled with continued losing has taken the air right out of in-person attendance in the last three years.

[VULB#62]

To be fair, there was some genuine enthusiasm on this board for the MVC move. Though I understood the appeal, I sensed it might be a mistake. I thought that the Horizon League gave Valpo the best ongoing opportunity for some level of post-season play.

Yes, the overwhelming consensus on this board was that a move to the MVC was a correct one. However, many on the board also advised a full-press approach in the transition rather than complacency or apathy. For instance, at the time, I reminded everyone of the once-in-a-lifetime publicity burst that happened after the Sweet Sixteen run and Bryce's famous shot, a gift opportunity for raising funds and enhancing the facilities that was squandered over subsequent years by the university. Imagine what other universities would have done with such a bonus circumstance!


I suggested the move to the MVC coupled with the previous season's appearance in the NIT finals and all the national publicity that came with it, gave VU a second chance to capitalize and promote the program, especially at a point where the economy was booming. I cautioned that history should not repeat itself with a blown opportunity for fundraising and development of facilities.


There were lengthy threads on this board with suggestions and recommendations for improving the physical atmosphere and game-day experience. However, the administration counterproductively focused on a priority of removing images of the Crusader as well as changing the team name and mascot rather than on significant improvements to the program's process and products, alienating many of the most supportive fans and donors, dividing the base rather than engaging them in a productive campaign to strengthen Athletics. If one purposely wanted a way to undermine the program, it would look something like this.   


Therefore, the move to the MVC was a correct decision. However, let's place accountability where it should be; the lack of will by the administration to follow up with a strategic plan for investment and success has led to the dismal situation we now find six years later, still absent a strategic plan let alone any actual substantial action. If there is any chance of recovery and reestablishing Valpo's stature as a well-respected mid-major, the administration needs to enact immediately a short-term plan (no more than three years) to overhaul all aspects of the athletics program—fundraising, facilities, personnel, recruiting, publicity, promotion, competitive expectations, etc. The arrival of AD Small has offered a perfect excuse for such an overhaul.     

THIS.

[David81]

I think that one can overestimate the amount of "oomph" that comes from a runner-up finish in the NIT and a move to a more competitive conference. Yes, it's "national publicity," in that wire service copy about these games will be carried across the country, and perhaps the same (tho to a lesser extent) about the move to the Valley. Even so, it's not as if folks are sitting up straight and excitedly asking "whoa, what's going on at Valparaiso?"

I'd say the same goes for the alumni/ae base. The Sweet 16 run was incredibly special and became a widespread point of pride. But, again, 2nd place in the NIT and going over to the MVC? If anything, there was disappointment that a team touted in Sports Illustrated to play deep into the NCAA tourney ended up in the NIT. There aren't many folks adding VU to their estate plans or tossing Valpo brochures at their 16-year-olds for that.

Plenty of schools get national street cred based on mainly on their academics and overall quality. VU is not as well known as it should be, but among those in the know, it is generally regarded quite positively. Marquee programs such as Christ College and Engineering are very well respected by folks who know their academic fields but who may not care or know that the school has a DI hoop's team.

That said, I agree that VU has to give this MBB program a major jumpstart. I don't think President Padilla -- a self-professed sports fan -- is happy to see the school's most visible sports team stuck in a very mediocre place. It's quite possible that after the season, there will be changes that stoke some genuine optimism for a return to relevance.

[valpopal]

David 81 wrote:
I think that one can overestimate the amount of "oomph" that comes from a runner-up finish in the NIT and a move to a more competitive conference. Yes, it's "national publicity," in that wire service copy about these games will be carried across the country, and perhaps the same (tho to a lesser extent) about the move to the Valley. Even so, it's not as if folks are sitting up straight and excitedly asking "whoa, what's going on at Valparaiso?"


I'd say the same goes for the alumni/ae base. The Sweet 16 run was incredibly special and became a widespread point of pride. But, again, 2nd place in the NIT and going over to the MVC? If anything, there was disappointment that a team touted in Sports Illustrated to play deep into the NCAA tourney ended up in the NIT. There aren't many folks adding VU to their estate plans or tossing Valpo brochures at their 16-year-olds for that.


I am not sure how much I overestimate, but I am sure you are underestimating the impact and influence of the NIT run at the time, David, by limiting it to "wire service copy." The Valpo games in the NIT run appeared on national television at ESPN. I still have the games against FSU, St. Mary's, BYU, and George Washington saved on my DVR. I cannot estimate the value in millions of dollars of such positive exposure for numerous hours on a national sports network, for both the team and the university (including the campus since two games happened in front of packed ARC crowds), but it is substantial. Additionally, the last two games were played at Madison Square Garden in New York City, the center of media coverage. Most importantly, the games were closely watched and favorably received by supporters and potential donors to Valparaiso athletics.

Plenty of schools get national street cred based on mainly on their academics and overall quality. VU is not as well known as it should be, but among those in the know, it is generally regarded quite positively. Marquee programs such as Christ College and Engineering are very well respected by folks who know their academic fields but who may not care or know that the school has a DI hoop's team.


As a career academic for decades who has taught in such programs and published widely in university periodicals or scholarly journals, including two you have cited in previous posts (The Cresset and American Scholar), I am "among those in the know," and I agree that university reputations are created by quality in academic departments and colleges. However, since funding for much of athletics comes from (and sometimes is restricted to) those who identify sports facilities or expenditures as the target of their contributions, I was solely speaking about the possibility of striking while the iron is hot and engaging such donors at a time of energy or enthusiasm for the basketball team.

That said, I agree that VU has to give this MBB program a major jumpstart. I don't think President Padilla -- a self-professed sports fan -- is happy to see the school's most visible sports team stuck in a very mediocre place. It's quite possible that after the season, there will be changes that stoke some genuine optimism for a return to relevance.


With all due respect, your comment, "it's quite possible that after the season, there will be changes," seems to echo the Scarlet O'Hara "tomorrow is another day" attitude that has allowed for repeated delays in action over the years and gotten us where we are six years after entering the MVC—nowhere. Among those longtime fans I know who have not renewed season tickets, one of the reasons for dwindling support and slackening attendance is the realization that nothing is being done now, and followers are tired of being advised for years to be patient when no indication of change is offered.   

[VULB#62]

Unfortunately, I live out of range of regular visits to the campus (NE WI) as does David (Boston, as I did for 42 years).  Speaking only for myself, not being close-by at times moderates my views. Pal, you are on the leading edge every day.

What we three all agree on is a change in many things athletic is needed. Where we may diverge is when and how intense. I am a former Valpo two sport athlete (football and T&F), so my bias shades more toward the more immediate, more intense upheaval change.  But make no mistake, after blowing the 98 opportunity and the 2016 NIT and MVC move exposure, VU is at the "sh!* or get off the pot" juncture in its athletic journey.  A quantum leap must be taken one way or the other.  Maintaining the status quo is not only unacceptable, it will, IMO, contribute to the further. deterioration of Valpo's place as a respected institution. Think about it. Law school tanks, enrollment decreases, faculty layoffs, and ....... athletics (arguably the most public face of this small university in NW Indiana) mediocrity or even less.

Back in the 80s Valpo had an epiphany. It realized that a merely expanded Hilltop Gym (the expansion being decicated in 1962 when I matriculated) was holding Valpo back.  Hence the ARC. That was a major step/investment/gamble(?) for that time. But it ushered us into D-I and served well as a lower level mid-major. But then......... We. Got. Good. And then it didn't .

Great Scott!  Marty, maybe it's time to go back to the future.

[David81]

David 81 wrote:
I think that one can overestimate the amount of "oomph" that comes from a runner-up finish in the NIT and a move to a more competitive conference. Yes, it's "national publicity," in that wire service copy about these games will be carried across the country, and perhaps the same (tho to a lesser extent) about the move to the Valley. Even so, it's not as if folks are sitting up straight and excitedly asking "whoa, what's going on at Valparaiso?"


I'd say the same goes for the alumni/ae base. The Sweet 16 run was incredibly special and became a widespread point of pride. But, again, 2nd place in the NIT and going over to the MVC? If anything, there was disappointment that a team touted in Sports Illustrated to play deep into the NCAA tourney ended up in the NIT. There aren't many folks adding VU to their estate plans or tossing Valpo brochures at their 16-year-olds for that.


I am not sure how much I overestimate, but I am sure you are underestimating the impact and influence of the NIT run at the time, David, by limiting it to "wire service copy." The Valpo games in the NIT run appeared on national television at ESPN. I still have the games against FSU, St. Mary's, BYU, and George Washington saved on my DVR. I cannot estimate the value in millions of dollars of such positive exposure for numerous hours on a national sports network, for both the team and the university (including the campus since two games happened in front of packed ARC crowds), but it is substantial. Additionally, the last two games were played at Madison Square Garden in New York City, the center of media coverage. Most importantly, the games were closely watched and favorably received by supporters and potential donors to Valparaiso athletics.

Plenty of schools get national street cred based on mainly on their academics and overall quality. VU is not as well known as it should be, but among those in the know, it is generally regarded quite positively. Marquee programs such as Christ College and Engineering are very well respected by folks who know their academic fields but who may not care or know that the school has a DI hoop's team.


As a career academic for decades who has taught in such programs and published widely in university periodicals or scholarly journals, including two you have cited in previous posts (The Cresset and American Scholar), I am "among those in the know," and I agree that university reputations are created by quality in academic departments and colleges. However, since funding for much of athletics comes from (and sometimes is restricted to) those who identify sports facilities or expenditures as the target of their contributions, I was solely speaking about the possibility of striking while the iron is hot and engaging such donors at a time of energy or enthusiasm for the basketball team.

That said, I agree that VU has to give this MBB program a major jumpstart. I don't think President Padilla -- a self-professed sports fan -- is happy to see the school's most visible sports team stuck in a very mediocre place. It's quite possible that after the season, there will be changes that stoke some genuine optimism for a return to relevance.


With all due respect, your comment, "it's quite possible that after the season, there will be changes," seems to echo the Scarlet O'Hara "tomorrow is another day" attitude that has allowed for repeated delays in action over the years and gotten us where we are six years after entering the MVC—nowhere. Among those longtime fans I know who have not renewed season tickets, one of the reasons for dwindling support and slackening attendance is the realization that nothing is being done now, and followers are tired of being advised for years to be patient when no indication of change is offered.   

Valpopal, we may have an honest difference of opinion about the publicity value of that NIT run. I think it's awesome that you, too, enjoyed that great series of games. Personally, I thought it was a lot more fun than VU's many one-and-done performances in the NCAA. I'm sure that a lot of VU hoops fans also have fond memories of that post-season.

But still, the NIT gets little to no love among the bigger throng of sports fans and sports media whose college hoops attention span starts and ends with the NCAA brackets. Yes, you fairly called me out for underplaying the media coverage of the NIT in my comment above. But let's face it, the NIT has been the consolation tournament for many years now. That's exactly what it became for VU after a hugely disappointing loss in the HL tournament, during a season that had sparked more NCAA hoops fantasies for VU fans than any squad since 1998.

In any event, in terms of taking advantage of that NIT run and the MVC move for fundraising purposes for basketball (or VU sports generally), I'm guessing that neither the Athletic Department nor VU's development folks saw them as being that big of a $$$ catalyst for the immediate future. A Sweet Sixteen appearance, for example, might've been much different. Indeed, can you imagine the resulting momentum for making the basketball program an integral part of the Forever Valpo campaign, which launched publicly just a few months later?

My comment about VU's academic reputation was not a direct response to any of yours. Rather, since I started posting to this board, I've been asserting that as important as sports might be to those of us who visit this spot, the overall reputation of the university does not rise or fall significantly on its collegiate sports presence. Collegiate basketball or football glory, especially, can help in terms of general visibility, and in top DI programs can help to bring in money well beyond the Athletic Department. But for everyone else, including VU, sports is just one meaningful piece of the puzzle.

I assure you that I wasn't attempting to channel Scarlett O'Hara in saying that there may well be big changes after this season, but instead trying to gently say that change is likely, absent a miraculous turnaround. I'm not one to counsel patience when patience is not merited. IMO the MBB program doesn't have much room or time for error in terms of reversing its fortunes. I believe we are in agreement on this point. 🤓

Note: I originally & erroneously responded to VULB62. My response should've been to Valpopal, as it is now corrected.