Valpo vs. Western Michigan

tjjvalpo · November 13, 2022, 09:31:45 AM

Looking forward to going today's game. Western Michigan maybe a bigger challenge than I originally thought. They almost beat Minnesota last week. Here's hoping that we don't come out flat like did against Toledo.

AlaskaCrusader19 · November 13, 2022, 09:59:58 AM

I was a bit surprised to see Valpo favored. Let's get in the win column!

VUGrad1314 · November 13, 2022, 10:32:02 AM

Hoping for the best. Hopefully we'll get off to a better start and come prepared this time. Hopefully we'll at least be competitive in this one and have enough to pull out the win at home. That's about all I've got right now unfortunately. Just hopeful platitudes until I see a definitive reason for optimism.

AB · November 13, 2022, 02:21:09 PM

line has moved to -5. Minnesota went 9-23 from the free throw line against the Broncs. Curious what the crowd will be like today. Over or under 2,500?

justducky · November 13, 2022, 02:36:41 PM

Quote from: AB on November 13, 2022, 02:21:09 PMCurious what the crowd will be like today. Over or under 2,500?

Under. Nobody seems interested! I would rather fall asleep in a tree stand this afternoon than fall asleep in a mostly empty ARC. More likely that a deer will wake me up than a Lotich coached basketball team!

vu84v2 · November 13, 2022, 03:00:55 PM

Quote from: justducky on November 13, 2022, 02:36:41 PM
Quote from: AB on November 13, 2022, 02:21:09 PMCurious what the crowd will be like today. Over or under 2,500?

Under. Nobody seems interested! I would rather fall asleep in a tree stand this afternoon than fall asleep in a mostly empty ARC. More likely that a deer will wake me up than a Lotich coached basketball team!

Well under...no excitement generated (yet) for this team.

chgovalpofan · November 13, 2022, 03:57:03 PM

There is nothing going on with this team to generate excitement. Last year they had Tic Tok videos, etc. There was an excitement about the potential. The team was excited about the potential. Not sure there is a leader on this team to take them on his back and make them believe. I would be happy to be proven wrong. I am rooting for this team but I am not a Lottich fan.

tjjvalpo · November 13, 2022, 04:34:12 PM

There is a lot to like about this team, based what I am seeing today!

FWalum · November 13, 2022, 04:39:15 PM

How great was it to see Connor Barrett hit that three from the corner. If he can get back to the stroke he had as a freshman that really helps our bench. Valpo up 13, 35 to 22.

AlaskaCrusader19 · November 13, 2022, 06:01:07 PM

Awesome performance tonight! That's more like it. King, Krikke and DeAveiro... Fantastic stuff.

hailcrusaders · November 13, 2022, 06:02:33 PM

Good win today. Glad to see us bounce back. WMU won't be a pushover for their MAC opponents. Great game from King and Krikke.

nkvu · November 13, 2022, 06:10:43 PM

Now that was a pleasure to watch. Cut down the turnovers. Played with poise. Got the ball to the two guys who were red hot in the right spots. Excellent point guard play. Now if only Krikke could just hit his first 3 to gain some confidence and Darius fix his free throw shooting. Still, an encouraging performance.

chgovalpofan · November 13, 2022, 06:44:24 PM

I love watching Kobe. It was good to see others stepping it up. Maybe there is hope after all.

vu72 · November 13, 2022, 06:57:55 PM

It is pretty hysterical to read about the "rather fall asleep in a treehouse" stuff just a few posts above and how that quickly changed for those of us who were there, or in my case, watched from afar. I saw a Valpo team of old, got a head, let it slip near the end of the first half and then closed it out with gusto! We have a lot of very encouraging pieces and we still aren't at full strength. 15 assists and 2 turnovers from our points! And our two stars shown very brightly. Great performance against a team that will win a lot of games.

FWalum · November 13, 2022, 07:17:30 PM

Glad to see this team bounce back in a big way. Still without 3 players that are suppose to be regular contributors.

Kobe needs to be aggressive and involved in the offense every game. If he and Krikke can just play at 3/4 of the way they did tonight every game then we should be able to compete nightly.

Green is surprising me with his athleticism, defense and length. Knew he was brought in as a shooter but his defense has really surprised me.

valpopal · November 13, 2022, 07:20:13 PM

Always nice to post a "W" and good for the team; however, I'm not getting sucked into even the slightest of false hopes this year. Western Michigan is ranked #253 in the Pomeroy ratings. Our upcoming two opponents are at the bottom of the ratings (Chicago St. at #360 and Incarnate Word at #358). I will wait to see if Valpo can get a "W" against the next five (Samford at #155, South Dakota St. at #122, James Madison at #93, Belmont at #136, or Murray St. at #135). I want to witness wins against teams in the top 50% before I even think about becoming enthusiastic.

VUGrad1314 · November 13, 2022, 07:40:45 PM

Well then... That's a night and day difference... Western Michigan has the looks of a potentially solid team judging from their near victory over Minnesota so this could be something. We're going to learn a lot about this team over the next 3-4 games and beyond. They better win the next two. After that, there's plenty of decent competition on the schedule that will tell us a lot about what we have. If we can string together some wins and be competitive throughout, my optimism will grow.

AB · November 13, 2022, 07:46:59 PM

Encouraging performance, but yes Broncs will finish in the bottom half of the MAC. They have two nice scores, absolutely no post play and not a good defensive team. Our point guard play was excellent, but the defense was not good with our bigs opening up on ice. Norman is a difficult player to guard but our bigs were slow to rotate. Green does play good Defense. Edwards, Green and DeAvario play under control. DeAvario is reminding me of the Drake point guard with out a jump shot. Will be interesting to see who gets more playing time moving forward, Darious or Preston? maintaining defensive intensity this season when we go through cold stretches on offense will be key.

VUGrad1314 · November 13, 2022, 07:51:38 PM

1680 is such a sad attendance number but I totally get it. If this is the start of Valpo getting hot and winning a bunch of games that number will rise by the time we play our first MVC home game. If we can start by winning a few more in conference as well then we'll surely see that number rise dramatically. The fanbase just needs a reason to believe. Maybe this is the start we need but for right now the best we have is cautious optimism. Too many ifs in this post and too many unknowns with only two data points that are in no way similar to each other this season to expect anything. I know this "Wait and see" attitude is a much different tenor than my posts in the Toledo thread and I'm sorry that my mind is biased towards negativity (because I was fully ready to say Same Ol' Lottich Era Valpo after Toledo) but I'm sure it's hard to blame anyone who is in this same frame of mind RE: the state of the program right now. I don't like being in this mindset either. Just like any other Valpo fan, I want to believe.

valpotx · November 13, 2022, 08:21:00 PM

I like having 15 fouls at C, going into conference play. We're going to need it against guys like Broadie (Drake), Mast (Bradley), and Phyfe (UNI). I was glad to see that Prim (MoSt) finally graduated, when looking to see which of the beefy bigs were still on MVC rosters!

Good overall game, and yes, very encouraging to see Barrett make his first 3. Green has freakish athletic ability. It looks like he has springs in his legs, at times. Good to see Darius have a solid game overall, and Krikke/King show that they can be a formidable 1-2. Let's keep at it with the next few games, which should be more opportunities to gain confidence.

vu84v2 · November 13, 2022, 09:50:45 PM

I did not see the game, but this looks like it was a much better performance. 18 assists versus 8 turnovers with 50 percent from the floor shows good offensive execution. I hope that is a sign of good things to come.

FWalum · November 13, 2022, 11:17:17 PM

Quote from: valpopal on November 13, 2022, 07:20:13 PM
Always nice to post a "W" and good for the team; however, I'm not getting sucked into even the slightest of false hopes this year. Western Michigan is ranked #253 in the Pomeroy ratings. Our upcoming two opponents are at the bottom of the ratings (Chicago St. at #360 and Incarnate Word at #358). I will wait to see if Valpo can get a "W" against the next five (Samford at #155, South Dakota St. at #122, James Madison at #93, Belmont at #136, or Murray St. at #135). I want to witness wins against teams in the top 50% before I even think about becoming enthusiastic.

I wouldn't get too hung up on the KenPom rankings at this time of the year. There is no way logically or statistically that Murray St. should be ranked #135, they have basically a whole new team that have limited experience running any of Prohm's offense or sets. Lost to SLU by 23 and then beat an NAIA team by 37. I think our two games match up favorably with what Murray has done so far. KenPom has 6 MVC teams ranked between 131-137, once again logically and statistically very improbable. Not sure what formula he is using that would make that happen. Everyone knows that most of the rankings at this time of the year are either based off of last year or just educated guesses. KenPom uses offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and tempo rating, but since there really is little data yet for this year.....

JD24 · November 13, 2022, 11:34:07 PM

Good to see King aggressive and Daverio put the ball up a few times (excepting the FT shooting). Krikke looks like a pencil him in for 20-25 per night guy.

Old Timer · November 14, 2022, 08:58:54 AM

Good performance. Not sure how good Western Michigan will be. Enjoyed up tempo type of game. 20 fast break points and 46 points in the paint is impressive. Pushing the ball does not allow defense to set and provide help. Main concern is performance from the three big men 2 points and 13 rebounds and outside guard shooting. Time will tell as team improves. Several games to work on this before Eastern trip.

valpopal · November 14, 2022, 09:12:04 AM

Quote from: FWalum on November 13, 2022, 11:17:17 PM
Quote from: valpopal on November 13, 2022, 07:20:13 PM
Always nice to post a "W" and good for the team; however, I'm not getting sucked into even the slightest of false hopes this year. Western Michigan is ranked #253 in the Pomeroy ratings. Our upcoming two opponents are at the bottom of the ratings (Chicago St. at #360 and Incarnate Word at #358). I will wait to see if Valpo can get a "W" against the next five (Samford at #155, South Dakota St. at #122, James Madison at #93, Belmont at #136, or Murray St. at #135). I want to witness wins against teams in the top 50% before I even think about becoming enthusiastic.
I wouldn't get too hung up on the KenPom rankings at this time of the year. There is no way logically or statistically that Murray St. should be ranked #135, they have basically a whole new team that have limited experience running any of Prohm's offense or sets. Lost to SLU by 23 and then beat an NAIA team by 37. I think our two games match up favorably with what Murray has done so far. KenPom has 6 MVC teams ranked between 131-137, once again logically and statistically very improbable. Not sure what formula he is using that would make that happen. Everyone knows that most of the rankings at this time of the year are either based off of last year or just educated guesses. KenPom uses offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and tempo rating, but since there really is little data yet for this year.....

I realize the Pomeroy ratings will adjust as the season progresses, but it's what we have and just an example that gives an approximate idea of relative strength. In any case, despite adjustments as the season advances, Western Michigan, Chicago State, and Incarnate Word are not going to be teams in the top 50% by the end of the year. The others could be. Therefore, I will wait to see Valpo's success against stronger teams rated in the upper half when they are played as the rankings settle before getting too enthusiastic.