It’s time to fire Lottich

[JD24]

Second, can the program, in the current competitive environment for mid-majors, attract and keep at least one star player around whom a tournament-quality team can be built, such as a Drew, Peters, or Broekhoff? (Or, is the Freeman-Liberty story merely a prelude to a new reality?)

In this, relatively new, NCAA MBB environment I think this is a question to be asked of every mid major in the country. I don't think Valpo is going to be unique in this regard. The question will be which programs adapt to it best.

For instance, there may be coaches who were better fits where they could mold their own recruits into a system created and learned over multiple years who may struggle vs coaches who can quickly weld together a coherent unit or two.

[David81]

This instance was brought up earlier but there are some significant differences. It was the last year of the contract, final game of the season...the interim coach was so for a week of game preparation and then for the exit of seniors until the new hire came in and you could also say, in Valpo's case, in a sport lower down the food chain.

While those who remain fans will be out for blood until the inevitable happens at the end of the season, that is when it's going to happen, likely...at the end of the season.

Yes, I acknowledged it was the final year of his contract and that only one game remained. My point was the symbolism of firing him, despite the fact it would soon be over anyway, was a statement regardless of its dynamics. I have been following Valpo athletics for decades and to my memory I cannot recall any coach of any sport ever being fired in season for poor coaching. That is totally out of Valpo's character, but sets a precedent. 

I was paying less close attention to VU football during the Carlson years, but (1) his record was truly, remarkably dreadful; and (2) something struck me as being odd and out of touch about the guy, as if he was in so far over his head that he lived in a world of cliches. So...I don't put Coach Carlson and Coach Lottich in the same category, not even close.

In thinking over all of our comments on this board (including my own harsher ones), I'm becoming persuaded that if any mid-season change occurs, it should be via a resignation rather than a firing. Coach Lottich has not done anything that merits an action smacking of humiliation. VULB#62 used the phrase "totally out of Valpo's character," and while I'm about to twist his reference out of context (perhaps even to gently disagree with where he's going), to me it means that VU treats folks who have conducted themselves honorably with respect. And frankly, I don't think that an interim coaching change would, say, result in a miracle run through the MVC tourney or anything like that. I'm sure there's a lot of good young men on this team, but the overall talent level simply isn't there.

In any event, this off-season must be about commencing a rebuild of the program, to where it's relevant at Arch Madness time. I do agree that it involves a coaching change.

[valpo84]

Guess it's time for me to weigh in on this discussion as someone who has been around the board/forum since Dick Harlan started this.  I have attended games around the country, been close to the program and a contributor to the major ARC renovations since the 1980s.   I know many of you all personally, and the past five years of Valpo have been extremely disappointing and disheartening.  The basketball program and it's deteriorating state is just a microcosm of the University's overall deterioration.

I gave up on this season for a number of reasons, including apathy to the new "Beacon" University.  The primary reason was my disgust after watching in person the Toledo game.  I drove over to it because I know many of the coaches and wanted to say hey to them and to Todd.  (Had never been to Toledo's facility and wanted to add it to I believe the 12th arena in Ohio I've watched college basketball games).  While watching that terrible display of basketball, I determined that this squad is not nearly talented enough or coachable enough or is there enough good coaches on staff to save the season or Matt's job.  AD Small was at that game, and he is a nice person, but as discussed below, a new or renovated facility is not going to save the program.  As I watched, what was apparent (and in some discussions with some fans), is that before we do a coaching search, there needs to be a complete (in writing) assessment of what the expectations of the program are and how we would get there.  Matt Lottich is not the only issue.  Below are the areas that must be addressed before March/April.

1.  Coaching — what type of coach can establish and build a program.  There needs to be a high energy, youthful coach from a lesser conference or assistant from a big program (Jake Diebler is an example of the type, Pat Kelseyis a non-VU who also fits that model). And no, some coaching retread is not the answer, didn't work with Tubby Smith, the coach at Cleveland State, Wake Forest (2x), or many other examples.). But, the assessment has to analyze what is the cost, how to fund, responsibilities, goals, program type.

2. Assistant coaches — under the Drew Dynasty, the quality of assistants was very high.  We had creative minds and people who might only be here a couple years but were contributors.  Part of it was the continuity of having the Drews on staff, too. But their were consistent offense and defensive schemes were that were tweaked year to year.  HCs fought for better salaries to attract and retain.  There has to be a review of insuring successor candidates and retention of assistants, plus sufficient committed funding. An interim coach is a terrible idea for this year as there is no one on staff that could be expected to change things enough at this point to be meaningful.  The year's a disaster, just play out the string. 

3. Players — the MVC is not the Mid-Con or the Horizon, it is a major step up, and we are in it.  We need players who want to prove themselves as a team.  The landscape has changed and lots of programs are struggling with the new models.  NIL is a critical element, transfers are the norm, 4 year players at one school are shrinking.  The University needs to understand this, and it needs to hire a coach who knows this new market and has shown success with constantly evolving rosters.  What does this University want in players? What coach will be good it's this model.  The current rosters talent level is not good.  It hasn't been for a few years now.  They can't shoot.  This is a fundamental flaw.  One thing that was constant for decades was a roster with players who could knock down open Js.  When a shot went up, you expected it to go in.  Today, not one player instills confidence.  I'd rather have the teams from 1992-1994 than this group.   

4. Facility — there should be no discussion of facility until the program is defined and established.  This isn't a build it and they will come situation.  There are tweaked to the facility that could be done to look like some of the nice mid-majors.  Toledo's has a nice "club" room looking over the floor. Davidson's is similar.  But Toledo's was no special place.  The investments need to be in a coach, assistants and NIl, not a building.  There also needs to be a realistic review of community involvement in this.  COVID taught us to be extremely cautious with facilities that can become drags on a university if not optimally used (see CSUs facility).  Is building or massively renovating ARC really going to change the attendance if the other areas aren't fixed first.  BTW, Toledos attendance was miserable for the game and they have a good team and purportedly a better facility.

5. Landscape — NIL is the most important thing in college sports today.  How do we fund a this for the athletes? What is our program to help find and raise the dollars.  Ho in the department is in charge of this? Again, investing here is more important than the facility.  Transfers as mentioned is another evaluation point. Are we going to focus on less stars and more years, or less years and more stars, with a coach who can handle that type of roster.

There may be other topics for that evaluation, but for "the school that shall not be named" if this assessment isn't done first, and then a coaching search that relies on a model, then the 40 year wilderness will begin again.  Frankly, I'm apathetic on this and the school because Padilla and Small have shown nothing to build confidence or build and repair relationships with the many critical alumni and supporters of both the "STSNBN" and its basketball program. 

Peace and Merry Christmas to the friends and others on the Forum.  Good luck to Matt and his staff on their futures.

[David81]

3. Players — the MVC is not the Mid-Con or the Horizon, it is a major step up, and we are in it.  We need players who want to prove themselves as a team.  The landscape has changed and lots of programs are struggling with the new models.  NIL is a critical element, transfers are the norm, 4 year players at one school are shrinking.  The University needs to understand this, and it needs to hire a coach who knows this new market and has shown success with constantly evolving rosters.  What does this University want in players? What coach will be good it's this model.  The current rosters talent level is not good.  It hasn't been for a few years now.  They can't shoot.  This is a fundamental flaw.  One thing that was constant for decades was a roster with players who could knock down open Js.  When a shot went up, you expected it to go in.  Today, not one player instills confidence.  I'd rather have the teams from 1992-1994 than this group.

If I'm looking at the roster correctly, next year's team will inevitably look much different. King, Green, and Edwards are gone, yes? Is Krikke eligible for a COVID year? Palm has shown promise and has a year left. The rest of the roster is either unproven at this point or mainly depth support on a good team. I assume there will be transfer portal attrition as well.

So...in the glass-is-1/3-full mode of thinking, at least the next coach will have an "opportunity" to start a rebuild in terms of key players.

[vok22]

3. Players — the MVC is not the Mid-Con or the Horizon, it is a major step up, and we are in it.  We need players who want to prove themselves as a team.  The landscape has changed and lots of programs are struggling with the new models.  NIL is a critical element, transfers are the norm, 4 year players at one school are shrinking.  The University needs to understand this, and it needs to hire a coach who knows this new market and has shown success with constantly evolving rosters.  What does this University want in players? What coach will be good it's this model.  The current rosters talent level is not good.  It hasn't been for a few years now.  They can't shoot.  This is a fundamental flaw.  One thing that was constant for decades was a roster with players who could knock down open Js.  When a shot went up, you expected it to go in.  Today, not one player instills confidence.  I'd rather have the teams from 1992-1994 than this group.

If I'm looking at the roster correctly, next year's team will inevitably look much different. King, Green, and Edwards are gone, yes? Is Krikke eligible for a COVID year? Palm has shown promise and has a year left. The rest of the roster is either unproven at this point or mainly depth support on a good team. I assume there will be transfer portal attrition as well. So...in the glass-is-1/3-full mode of thinking, at least the next coach will have an "opportunity" to start a rebuild in terms of key players.

If/when Lottich is fired, I am going to assume most future commits will decommit, and most players on roster will declare for the portal. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as past Lottich recruits and players have not exactly brought this program success. No reason to expect this next class is going to magically be good.

[vuny98]

I've been in the Lottich didn't deserve to be let go camp, not because I thought he was a great coach, but because I had seen some small improvements over the years, not generally a fan of firing coaches after only a few years (hate the constant rebuild), and thought the recruits coming in were exciting and showed some hope of a good team. I also thought that this was definitely his last chance to put it all together. Well it has been ugly so far.

It's been enough, he needs to go. Like others have said, I doubt it happens mid-season. If this were a different school, or with an AD that was more experienced, maybe, but I don't see it happening unless 30+ point loses become the norm.

I still think this team can win some games this year, but I officially have zero hopes of this being a successful year.

[AlaskaCrusader19]

While I would absolutely support a mid-season change, I don't necessarily care whether it happens now or in March after Valpo, inevitably, loses on Thursday of Arch Madness. What matters is that these conversations at the Padilla and Small level are taking place now and that Valpo is ready to move as soon as the season ends with a list of candidates that they think they can get.

As many posters have mentioned, the group of assistant coaches are tied closely with Lottich. It's not as if giving someone an "audition" for the rest of the season provides great promise of a brighter future. A complete overhaul is needed. This season is likely lost, but the path to a brighter future starts with legwork being done as early as now.

[Valpo17]

Another terrible hire by the former admin.Much of our dilemma across the board is due to these blunders.So even though he pulled the trigger during the season-what does it say about his ability to evaluate coaching talent? Carlson,Dorow etc

[usc4valpo]

If they are certain that a change needs to be made, they should do it now and start the search. Keeping status quo of a cause going nowhere is insanity.

[vu84v2]

It will be very interesting to see where this goes. First, if a coach resigns during the season and, as part of that, gets a buyout, then it is the same as dismissal. Call it what you want, but anyone who would look to hire him in the future will view it as being fired by Valpo.

I am in favor of replacing Matt Lottich, but let's take a minute to consider the financials. It is safe to assume that Valpo would need to pay one year of severance to Matt Lottich. I don't exactly know what Matt Lottich is paid, but assume the severance is $350K when all is said and done. Then, let's assume that Valpo hires a search firm - my guess is that is another $25K. Then, Valpo will need to pay the new coach. Matt Lottich's salary was pre-inflation, but a new coach is likely to want what Matt Lottich was paid plus an adjustment for inflation - so assume another $60K per year for the new coach and another $20K per year for each of three assistants (assume all of the assistants are replaced). Many large universities have donors who would fund most or all of this, but Valpo likely does not. Thus, the athletic department is going to need to ask for ~$500K in 2023 and another ~$120K per year after that. And those numbers assume that Valpo takes a chance on a promising coach - not one with a proven track record at any level in D1.

The reality is (and I know some here will scream) that the university will likely target the windfall from the NMSU game to fund a lot of this. I have known a fair number of CFOs and other finance executives during my careers and I can safely say that none of them would agree to just write a check in this situation. The direction to the athletic department will be, "you can use that money to fund the football program and keep coach Lottich through his contract duration or you can dismiss Coach Lottich and use all of the margin dollars for his severance and replacement (in which case, the university will fund the balance)...but you cannot do both." You may say that President Padilla could override this, but my guess is that the senior finance person would demand this be taken up by the board (i.e. he/she would not let the University President just overrule him/her).

[vu72]

Another terrible hire by the former admin.Much of our dilemma across the board is due to these blunders.So even though he pulled the trigger during the season-what does it say about his ability to evaluate coaching talent? Carlson,Dorow etc

[/b]

Um. Have you been asleep for an extended period of time?  I presume that when you write about "his ability to evaluate coaching talent", you are referring to Mark LaBarbera.  NEWS FLASH:  Mark LaBarbera retired from the University effective last June 30.

[JD24]

The financials at this stage are going to be the same whether he's dumped now or at the end of the season. The interim coach would be internal.

The bigger concern is how much autonomous power Padilla and Small are given to make the change and hire the right person. That's where I'm not sure of this moving forward.

[Valpo17]

relax dude

[vu84v2]

Agree that the financials will be the same. My guess is that they will have a lot of latitude - within financial constraints that are ultimately approved by the board.

[oklahomamick]

I don't know Lottich but can say with confidence he wouldn't get arrested for assault and battery as the Texas coach just did. 

[David81]

I don't know Lottich but can say with confidence he wouldn't get arrested for assault and battery as the Texas coach just did. 

Indeed. I've never known any of VU's head coaches personally, but from my more distant perch, they've all seemed to be decent human beings. I don't take that lightly in a vocation where bullies, rageaholics, and the ethically challenged sometimes snake their way into head coaching positions.

[usc4valpo]

Dale Carlson quoting Joel Osteen was pretty creepy though.

[crusadermoe]

This is pretty disappointing to see the screaming for Matt to be fired.  No doubt that the embarrassing loss to Chicago State was very hard to swallow. 

But while close only counts in horseshoes, they took Murray State into overtime.  They have not given up. Murray State beat Tulsa and Texas A&M this year.  As long as they rise up in that way every few games I think Matt deserves to finish out the year.  Sadly they got blown out at Ole Miss just a few days later. But Homer and Scott used to get blown out by Purdue and P5 teams sometimes.

I know I am reaching in terms of performance. But firing just doesn't seem like a good look and would give pause to a new hire who is looking at the reality of expectations for the school.  They are not going to land a big time hire at this point with a whole university on the skids. The drop in enrollment and bond ratings is glaring. The school has bigger concerns than the team.

[NativeCheesehead]

"...bullies, rageaholics, and the ethically challenged..."

[vu72]

ut while close only counts in horseshoes, they took Murray State into overtime. 

Remember that Murray State is a team that lost 10 players to transfer, now has a roster of 8 transfers and 5 freshman and has a brand new coach. Yet they beat us AT OUR PLACE.  Somehow, as challenging as the current state of college basketball may be, Matt chose his transfers and the entire roster.  Something is definitely wrong but I agree that a dismissal during the season would not be the right move.

[usc4valpo]

My concern is that Valpo will win games over some ham and egger teams, have a record of a little below 0.500 and there will be sympathizers spinning a story on how they improved and they continue a commitment toward mediocrity. This team has a feeling of the early Tom Smith years, and those years really sucked.

I am presuming that Matt is on the hot seat which is never really hot at Valpo.

[SanityLost17]

Mid-Season change?    100% No
End of Season Change?   100% YES

I have no regrets on giving Lottich ample time to prove himself.   Was worth a shot to see if he could get some traction.   He showed flashes of brilliance.   I don't think Fazekas or Kiser were great talents or anything.  Fazekas was a bit one domanial, graet shooter but not great at defense and Kiser was all guts.   Lottich really maximized the talent on that team I believe.  Since then he just hasn't found away to replicate that.   

Maybe it's not all his fault.   Lack of administrative commitment to the program over the last 30 years certainly didn't help.   However, Lottich has not come around when it comes to building a balanced team that compliments each other, running an efficient offense, consistent defense, play calling, in game adjustments, consistent player motivation, etc. etc etc. 

Maybe Valpo will never be great again, but we can put a better product on the floor then what we have now.    This problem does go well beyond Lottich, but I think its safe to say Lottich is a part of the problem and a fresh start is required. 

[David81]

In terms of recruiting, VU has been able to bring in some quality talent. During the past three years, the challenge has been getting them to stay or stay healthy:

-JFL
-Kithier (injury)
-Jacob Ognacevic
-Donovan Clay
-Keyondre Young (I missed earlier news of his signing with DePaul for '23)
-Sheldon Edwards

That's one bonafide star, three starting-quality players, and the other two rotation-quality at least. I may have forgotten others.

I don't know how this compares to other mid-majors, but that's a lot of talent that could've made this and the past two seasons much different. Did coaching have something to do with the departures, or is it mostly about the new reality of the transfer portal?

[Just Sayin]

**UPDATED DECEMBER 13, 2022**

YOUR CHAIR IS ON FIRE, SIR
Coaches at the end of the line at their current school. You should be seeing them here soon enough.

Jeff Capel III (Pittsburgh)
Capel's deal runs through the 2026-27 season, but he's yet to have a winning record in four seasons at Pitt. It was a rebuilding job when he took it so the first couple years are excused, but now in year five he has done nothing to show he can win games with this program. Pitt finished tied for 11th in the ACC last year at 6-14 (11-21 overall), which was actually their best finish under Capel, and ended it by losing to Boston College by 20 points in the ACC Tournament. UPDATE: Pitt is a respectable 7-4 but missed all opportunities for good OOC wins.

Mark Fox (California)
This was kind of an odd hire for Cal, as Fox had just been fired after nine unremarkable seasons at Georgia. He had some experience out West (mostly at Nevada), but his name was not floating around much during the hiring process. The Bears are 35-58 overall under Fox (with a particular ugly double-digit home loss to UC San Diego last year). Fox's buyout dropped from $1.3M to $900k after he was retained this offseason. UPDATE: The Bears are in the running for worst Power Conference team ever amidst a putrid 0-11 (0-2) start.

Matt Lottich (Valparaiso)
Six years ago, Lottich became the first Valpo head coach from outside the Drew family since 1988. But after winning the 2017 Horizon title, the program moved to the MVC and have finished above .500 just once since. There are different standards for mid-majors but Valpo has a strong track record that includes nine NCAA Tournament bids since 1996. Last year's team started by losing two exhibition games to D-II's at home and finished in 7th at 6-12 (13-17 overall). That brings Lottich's record since joining the MVC to 72-77 (35-55). UPDATE: The Beacons are 4-7 (0-2) and all three of their D-I wins easily could have been losses.

https://www.coachesdatabase.com/college-basketball-hot-seat-report/

[truth219]

I think the sooner the move is made the better off we are. Some have said firing him now isn't a good look, we'll look at the turn out of the past home game. Nobody is looking at Valpo men's basketball. He has had his chance to win games. The talent had been on campus. The results were not there.


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