Let’s Speculate! Potential Valparaiso head basketball coach candidates

[usc4valpo]

Go with Donlan or McCullum, although McCullum would be a home run. With Small as AD, Valpo should once hire outside of the family.

[VULB#62]

What constitutes "the family"?

Discount anyone in the Drew coaching tree?  E.g., Powell, Schilling

Discount any Valpo alum? E.g., Diebler. Tonagel.

[valpofb16]

Valpo is down on cash right now. Lottich makes 345, that is probably a ceiling offer unless you grab some larger investors.

That pretty much eliminates anyone in the P5 outside of GA and end of bench guys. It eliminates ESPN employees and Power 5 retreads.

Our best bet is lightning in a bottle with a D2 or successful NAIA coach. Tonagel seems like a great fit, or Paul Cosaro from Uindy.

Valpo has taken lumps in the Midwest recruiting in all sports. It'd be nice to get people in who have that connection. Butts in seats, even if the ceiling is a .500 record

[VULB#62]

Go with Donlan or McCullum, although McCullum would be a home run. With Small as AD, Valpo should once hire outside of the family.

Smart will send initial feelers out in a wide net. Donlon could very well be included in that initial exploration.  But he is an Associate HC at an ACC school already making more than VU can afford to pay. He's on track for an eventual P5 head coach gig, plus why would he go back to a struggling mid-major with budget problems?  Fuggetabouthim. 

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that no P5 assistant with solid credentials would even consider Valpo in its present condition. Go back to when Bryce left, however, and that would have been a different story. We had a buyers' market going there, but went short-sighted and cheap. Come to think of it, it was almost a '98 dedux. Bryce's departure was big news. He signed for $16.3 mil. But Valpo did not leverage that exposure into attracting a proven winner to continue the legacy. Ah, 20/20 hindsight. But I digress......

No doubt McCollum has the credentials on paper.  As does Tonagel and a few other D-II/NAIA HCs looking to move up the ladder. And I'm sure there are a bunch of D-I mid-major top assistants who would see Valpo as a good stepping stone (however, I, personally, would be leery of anyone who did not have successful HC experience). And despite what I wrote in the previous paragraph, Smart might have a super connection from his previous stints who he thinks can do the job and would be willing to come to Valpo.

But our discussions on this board are totally irrelevant at this point. Just a lot of conjecture and speculation without any well-informed basis, just subjective opinions and emotional ideas.

The first hurdle - will  Valpo even consider eating Matt's contract in order to make a change? Captain Obvious speaking here and suggesting that there's no sense in discussing great candidates until that happens and the first domino falls. 

[valpofb16]

Wisconsin, Canada , Netherlands , and Georgia are the demographic of the guys that play on the roster. There is no local pipeline.

You think (insert players name here) large support group are driving down for a Thursday game against Evansville.

Meanwhile 8/14 Evansville players hail from the Midwest. They have roots. Those 3k tickets more per game add up over a season.

Get a proven winner from a lower level. Who can bring in local talent. Will get buy in from the locals if their kids are on the team.  Get Valpo basketball back in the black financially. Then chase winning

[usc4valpo]

62 - if Lottich isn't let go by the end of this season, we know undoubtedly where Valpo is going regarding athletics, and that is complete apathy. At this time, If Valpo can't make a change for the better over $300k or so, they should drop all sports to D3.

[VULB#62]

Yep.

But few of us view the purpose of Smart's hiring as overseeing the transition to DIII.  I still have faith that Valpo will find a way through this. Beware the Ides of March  . It should be an interesting month.  Go Dune Puppies!

[David81]

Even looking at this purely from an alumni relations and public relations point of view (and I realize it's more than that), it's hard to imagine VU deciding to downsize to D3 during the foreseeable future. But at least for MBB, the results of the next coaching hire will say a lot about that future.

Picking up on VULB#62's comment, in addition to presumably not hiring Small to manage such a transition, I can't imagine Small accepting the AD position with that understanding of his charge. Not exactly a good resume optic for future jobs to have a bullet point about facilitating a transition from D1 to D3, unless that becomes a sad, in-demand skill set among mid-majors.

[usc4valpo]

Understood, but if a change is needed and being D1, a few hundred grand should not trump over doing the right thing.

[oklahomamick]

Oru's Paul Mills is a perfect example. 

Learned under Scott drew at Baylor took a pay cut to go to ORU. 

ORU rolling from what used to be a dead program in the summit. 

[mp91]

Please not Dane Fife! Not a big fan of Donlon either. I would like to go younger. Diebler likely isn't going anywhere yet, Ohio State was his dream job. He used to tell me all the time that he would bolt to be an assistant there in a heartbeat. At some point, maybe he leaves to get some experience to try to be the head coach, but that time is not now. (Although Diebler with Buggs as assistant would be pretty sweet).

A few other names:

Chris Victor from Seattle U – widely regarded as one of the best mid-major coaches. Not sure the salary situation and a very good chance he waits to grab a bigger job (like Washington or Washington State) down the road. But, I would at least reach out.

Dusty May – has done a nice job rebuilding FAU. Connections to IU. Could be an opportunity to come back to Indiana and take a better job but with less pressure than Power 5. Also, FAU is a little overrated, they are performing well but how good of a coach is he really?

Yasir Rosemond – assistant coach and massive recruiter for IU. Younger coach that relates well to players. Excellent recruiter (which we really need). Also worked under Avery Johnson. Has ties to Midwest, South, and West Coast. Under the radar potential hire. Again, probably would have to take a pay cut, but at least worth a call to see if he wants to be a head coach.

[wh]

IMHO, Valpo men's bb is in full airplane stall mode. Pilot Matt continues in a desperate attempt to pull us out of it, but in reality it's already too late. This plane will officially crash and burn sometime in early March in St. Louis. 

So then what?  Bring in a new coaching staff and start over, right? So, how does the university cover its financial obligation to pay Matt's '23-'24 salary? And, isn't it reasonable to suppose that Luke Gore and possibly others have similar contract terms?  We could easily be talking about $500-600k to clear the deck for a new coaching staff. Given the university's multi-faceted financial pressures at present, I'm guessing that the decision will be made (out of necessity) to ride out the Matt Lottich era to the end. Just my 2 cents.

[usc4valpo]

Wh - if that's the case, Valpo needs to give up D1 athletics.

Donlan is a pedigree from the cradle of college coaches, and as an alum on this HS, I support him. However, McCullum would be the home run, but I doubt Valpo could get him.

[elephtheria47]

I always thought ACs were year-to-year contracts?

Alternatively,  we roll out the same ol' same ol', we likely eat $500k in lack of attendance/concessions/gear sales and we continue as a doormat to the MVC.

Can someone do better with our limitations? 500k question.

[JD24]

I doubt the assitants are on multi year deals.

[wh]

Most likely, you guys are right. According to a survey a few years back of D-1 assistant coaching salaries, 75% are year-to-year. I would not have guessed that.

[usc4valpo]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q_LVncscf0Y

More coach Ben McCollum at NW Mo. St. and seeking Div. 1 opportunities.

[VULB#62]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q_LVncscf0Y

More coach Ben McCollum at NW Mo. St. and seeking Div. 1 opportunities.

Nice interview. Some good responses to Katz's questions. Key takeaway #1:  "stay true to the process."   #2: stays away from the xfer portal and builds culture around tough kids who want to stay for 4 years. And #3:  he ain't going anywhere unless he can make a difference with the kids and the community.

IMO,  Valpo could check each of those boxes.

[mp91]

I get that McCollum has a terrific record. But we do we really want a D2 coach? I don't really think that makes a "splash" in terms of recruiting or excitement on campus. We need to galvanize the program and not sure this will do the trick.

[vu72]

I get that McCollum has a terrific record. But we do we really want a D2 coach? I don't really think that makes a "splash" in terms of recruiting or excitement on campus. We need to galvanize the program and not sure this will do the trick.

Check out what Indiana State's D2 coach is doing with wins over Drake, UNI and Southern Illinois and now sit 2 games off the lead.  I think we would be very pleased with those results.  He is just in his second year.  I think there would be a pretty big buzz around a hire like that.

[usc4valpo]

I doubt McCollum would be interested, it may not be a good fit. But if you are going to place Tonegal in the discussion, then the D2 limitation argument is bogus.

[wh]

I can imagine a scenario where Matt is not only retained as head coach next year, but is awarded a new 3-year contract, as well. From a recent PO Victory Bell article about Ben Krikke's options next year:

"Then there is staying. Krikke is beloved in Valparaiso and another season in brown and gold would cement his status as one of the program's all-time greats. With Maximus Nelson and Ibra Bayu ready to take big steps forward after a year in the program, Preston Ruedinger back from a shoulder injury and a talented trio of newcomers, the outlook is bright for the 2023-24 Beacons."

Here's how the scenario plays out. First, the administration determines that it can't afford to buy Matt out; thus, he returns next year. Next year we actually do perform better as PO suggests, and seemingly out of the blue Matt is awarded with another 3 year contract. So, why would they roll the dice for another 3 year cycle: (1) the administration knows there is no money to invest in a new facility, (2) the university isn't in a position to initiate a capital fundraising campaign let alone build, and (3) to get an experienced head coach with a winning D-1 record willing to try to turn around a losing program with a dreadful venue in a difficult league will cost way more than $350K/year. 

I've said it before - Matt Lottich, and Matt alone, may very well decide the long term fate (return to success or catastrophic failure) of Valparaiso University men's basketball. Grab some popcorn and snuggle in. 

[VUGrad1314]

I can imagine a scenario where Matt is not only retained as head coach next year, but is awarded a new 3-year contract, as well. From a recent PO Victory Bell article about Ben Krikke's options next year: "Then there is staying. Krikke is beloved in Valparaiso and another season in brown and gold would cement his status as one of the program's all-time greats. With Maximus Nelson and Ibra Bayu ready to take big steps forward after a year in the program, Preston Ruedinger back from a shoulder injury and a talented trio of newcomers, the outlook is bright for the 2023-24 Beacons." Here's how the scenario plays out. First, the administration determines that it can't afford to buy Matt out; thus, he returns next year. Next year we actually do perform better as PO suggests, and seemingly out of the blue Matt is awarded with another 3 year contract. So, why would they roll the dice for another 3 year cycle: (1) the administration knows there is no money to invest in a new facility, (2) the university isn't in a position to initiate a capital fundraising campaign let alone build, and (3) to get an experienced head coach with a winning D-1 record willing to try to turn around a losing program with a dreadful venue in a difficult league will cost way more than $350K/year. I've said it before - Matt Lottich, and Matt alone, may very well decide the long term fate (return to success or catastrophic failure) of Valparaiso University men's basketball. Grab some popcorn and snuggle in.

This is a well-reasoned thoughtful and realistic assessment of the state of the program and I have a sinking feeling that this is exactly how things will play out. The problem is that betting on a big year from a star player like we did when we hired Lottich in the first place to keep Peters is not as we have come to find out a good approach to program building. That first year looks fine as it did in our case but after that the coach is on his own and has to prove himself able to sustain the momentum. While we can vigorously and legitimately debate the extent to which Matt is responsible for the failings of the program I believe the reality is clear and I have felt this way since the Chicago State debacle: The Matt Lottich era has been a failure and it is impossible to see success especially on any kind of sustained level as long as Lottich heads the program.


This is Valpo's sixth year in the MVC. By this point, Loyola (who came to the MVC in worse shape than Valpo was in as a program had already ascended to a power albeit on a  seemingly temporary basis given their early performance in the A-10. Valpo by contrast has four victories in  conference play all of which have come against teams either tied with (Illinois State) or below (Evansville UIC) Valpo in the standings. Moreover, Valpo has taken more double digit losses (5) in MVC play than they have wins (4). Is this the new standard of Valpo basketball? "At least we beat the perennial also-rans\cellar dwellers and aren't the worst of the worst?" I certainly hope not. I certainly hope that competing for conference championships is still the goal. Judging by Valpo's performance in other sports namely women's soccer and women's volleyball it is still the goal and it is achievable if the right leadership and players are in place.


Valpo's conference record  includes 3 losses to MVC Newcomers Murray State and Belmont. Murray State after a slew of transfers and a new coach sits three games better than Valpo in the standings. Belmont with a young team (like Lottich used to always remind us that we were) is tied for first. So much for the "tough transition to the MVC" crutch we used to give him. Let us also remember that Murray and Belmont come to the MVC from a far worse conference than the Horizon League was at the time we left it meaning they consistently got to pad their records against lesser competition than we did and they're STILL outperforming our Year 6 team in Year 1. It should also be mentioned that two of the double digit losses Valpo has suffered so far were to Belmont. This alone presents a stinging indictment of Lottich's performance but even this doesn't tell the whole story.


I will concede PO is likely right and the premise of his article is sound: we should improve next year. We'd better improve. But if Matt has any ability to actually build a program that improvement should not hinge on whether Krikke stays or goes. The problem is that it's hard to see whether there will be too much improvement even if he stays. We've had relative stability recently even in this era of constant transferring the past year or two and we're still getting poor results on the court. If continuity isn't the issue anymore then what is it if it's not coaching?  It's not like we're even talking about the team that looked like it was slowly ascending a few years ago with improving win totals and conference positioning. What we've seen this year looks more like our earliest MVC teams if not worse. It's clear that the program is going backwards and the conference (even though this year has been a down year) is only going to get tougher as Murray and Belmont continue to get acclimated and\or more expansion takes place.


As the excuses (transfers toughness of the conference transition "young team" etc. ) fade away it becomes increasingly clear that Matt bears significant responsibility even if he escapes total responsibility for Valpo's lackluster (to be kind) on-court performance. At this point the only way Matt can reasonably hope to stay is if the university simply lacks the money for a buyout; and if that's the case then we've got far bigger problems and truly need a miracle. There is no justifiable reason outside of finances to keep him on as Head Coach. Even if that means we lose some players we see as building blocks because of it the sooner we rip the band-aid off the better. This program needs a new start. I don't know who the right person is to lead it but a change is sorely needed. The facts presented here are now too glaring to ignore. Maybe it is overly harsh to call the Lottich\MVC-era Valparaiso Beacons a "catastrophic failure" but it is an obvious failure nonetheless. That fact is no longer in dispute.

[justducky]

There is no justifiable reason outside of finances to keep him on as Head Coach.

This 15 word sentence pretty well sums things up.

[vu84v2]

I can definitely see that the scenario discussed by wh is a realistic possibility - specifically how finances play into the decision. However, the $425K from the football buy game with New Mexico State does likely create a ~$300K windfall for the athletic department - which could be applied to a buyout. Another realistic alternative to the scenario painted by wh is that they let the contract expire and then hire a new coach - avoiding the buyout.

I really don't think avoiding dismissal (and possibly resigning) Coach Lottich is the best move...though I wish that were not the case because he seems like a genuinely good person. Reasons: 1. I have never seen a system within his coaching style and, at times, it has just seemed like he lets the star players do whatever they want, 2. He cannot retain his best players. I know everyone sees the loose transfer rules as a foregone conclusion that you just have to plan for major turnover each year, but I don't necessarily agree. Recruiting the right players who thrive in a system can dramatically reduce turnover (though, of course, the limited NIL at Valpo versus larger schools will always create challenges). 3. Repeated missed expectations.