Let’s Speculate! Potential Valparaiso head basketball coach candidates

[vu84v2]

Looking at college basketball coach dismissal and retention decisions over the last 18 years.

Matt Lottich is in his sixth year at Valparaiso.

Among all teams in the twelve strongest conferences (of which the MVC is one):
-A White coach after his 6th season has a 4.5% probability of being dismissed (it is higher for non-White coaches).
-Valpo's current winning percentage is 43.5%. That winning percentage triples the likelihood of dismissal (winning percentage has no effect at a 61% winning percentage).
-Valpo's prior year winning percentage was 43.75%. That prior year winning percentage increases the likelihood of dismissal by about 50% (estimated from the non-linear coefficients, since calculating the non-linear prediction would take a fair amount of time).
-Coach Lottich was an assistant at Valpo, which increases the probability of dismissal by about 55%.
-Valpo is a private university, which decreases the probability of dismissal by about 39%.
-If we assume that Valpo has no players that will eventually play in the NBA, that decreases the probability of dismissal by about 4%.
-Valpo's financial support is about 0.8 standard deviations below the average for all teams in the top 12 conferences. This reduces the likelihood of dismissal by about 19%.
-The Missouri Valley Conference's strength is about 1.0 standard deviation below the average of the 12 conferences. This reduces the likelihood of dismissal by about 6%.
-Matt Lottich has not developed any prestige in his position (from awards or nationally recognized accomplishments). This increases the probability of dismissal by about 12%.

Thus, among all coaches in the twelve major conferences over the last 18 years, the probability of a coach like Matt Lottich being dismissed is about:
4.5 x 3 x 1.5 x 1.55 x 0.61 x 0.96 x 0.81 x 0.94 x 1.12 = ~15.8%

Note that performance is a huge non-linear factor in this model. A winning percentage of 31% doubles the likelihood of dismissal relative to 43.5%.

Non-significant factors that were included in the models: age, different AD, whether the team is from FBS, lack of NCAA sanctions, whether the team was in the preseason AP Top 25, recruiting ranking, coach's prestige prior to being hired, the degree of strategic change from the prior season.

(This is calculated using results from two studies - one published and the other not yet published)

[usc4valpo]

What's sad in today's Div. I athletics at Valpo is a possible outcome to keep him to save 300K to 400K. Would this circumstance happen at any other MVC school that wants to actually compete?

In the grand scheme, 300K should be a noise factor in making a decision. Quit throwing nickels like manhole covers Valpo and move on!

[VALPO LI]

What's sad in today's Div. I athletics at Valpo is a possible outcome to keep him to save 300K to 400K. Would this circumstance happen at any other MVC school that wants to actually compete?

In the grand scheme, 300K should be a noise factor in making a decision. Quit throwing nickels like manhole covers Valpo and move on!

Next year forgo scheduling 2-3 home games vs schools like Trinity and Stonehill and get bought to play @ power 5 schools.  Your deficit of 300K is almost cut in half.  I would rather see the University get paid to loose to UNC over loosing to Chicago State for free.

[historyman]

What's sad in today's Div. I athletics at Valpo is a possible outcome to keep him to save 300K to 400K. Would this circumstance happen at any other MVC school that wants to actually compete?

In the grand scheme, 300K should be a noise factor in making a decision. Quit throwing nickels like manhole covers Valpo and move on!

Next year forgo scheduling 2-3 home games vs schools like Trinity and Stonehill and get bought to play @ power 5 schools.  Your deficit of 300K is almost cut in half.  I would rather see the University get paid to loose to UNC over loosing to Chicago State for free.

There are always 2 sides to scheduling. There has to be a power 5 school that wants to host your team. That has not been the case as of late.

[usc4valpo]

every P5 team want to have a scheduled win over a ham and egger.

[vu84v2]

every P5 team want to have a scheduled win over a ham and egger.

Not as much as they used to. Most P6 (include the Big East here) conferences are playing more conference games and they are doing agreements with other conferences for "challenges". Add holiday tournaments and the number of buy games has dramatically decreased. Historyman raises a very good point.

[valpo64]

Loved your comment, vu84v2.  I don't know how accurate your stats are but it is very interesting reading and in general makes alot of sense. I have to chuckle when comments are made that $300,000 to $400,000 shouldn't make a difference regarding a coaching change.  I wonder how many mid-major schools would agree that that amount of money would not make any difference in hiring or firing a coach that is currently under contract, especially if it is a private mid-major program.

[usc4valpo]

64 - I would say Evansville might be concerned although they are drawing fans. But feel free to chuckle, as Bradley, Belmont and Drake wouldn't think twice regarding making a change for their programs for the better. $200K to 400K would have  minimal
  effect in their decision. We are a member of the MVC, let's act accordingly and quit striving to be mediocre.

[crusadermoe]

I have heard somewhere that the VU budget is in the $100 million range. So I guess you have to look at the cost-benefit of eating $300-400k and how well you can measure the outcome. 

The PR impact and perception cuts both ways; internal with staff and external with alumni and fans.  It's very hard to measure either one. But that's why the Pres. and AD make the big bucks.

[vu84v2]

Loved your comment, vu84v2.  I don't know how accurate your stats are but it is very interesting reading and in general makes alot of sense. I have to chuckle when comments are made that $300,000 to $400,000 shouldn't make a difference regarding a coaching change.  I wonder how many mid-major schools would agree that that amount of money would not make any difference in hiring or firing a coach that is currently under contract, especially if it is a private mid-major program.

valpo64 - Thanks. The data is from two studies - one published in a peer-reviewed journal and the other under review with a peer-reviewed journal. The stats and models better be accurate, otherwise the lead author on these two studies examining executive dismissal (i.e., me) will be in trouble.

[tiny707]

Head coach at Ohio State thrown out of game. Jake Diebler taking over head coaching duties and trying to lead team to victory over Wisconsin.

[Just Sayin]

Head coach at Ohio State thrown out of game. Jake Diebler taking over head coaching duties and trying to lead team to victory over Wisconsin.

I didn't watch that game so I don't know when he was thrown out. KP gives quarterly scores. Assuming Jake coached the last two quarters, Jake coached the team with a winning margin in the 3rd quarter of 6 and 5 in the 4th quarter. Nice run to get back in the game but no cigar.


..........Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   T
Wisc   21   22   12   10   65
Oh St.16   11   18   15   60

[VUGrad1314]

Our athletic budget is in the $100million range and we're complaining about $300K-$400K? Or is that VU's entire operating budget which would be a different matter entirely? Also speaking as an alum I have to say that the constant mediocre to bad results with nothing being done about it are having a negative effect on my enthusiasm and I am NOT the only person who feels this way based on the other alums I talk to. Everyone is thoroughly disgusted or has given up. I know it's just a small section of the fanbase but I'm sure the feeling isn't just confined to me and my friend group. A change needs to be made especially if our athletic budget really is that huge. If that's the case the amount we're talking about is miniscule and should bear no weight in the calculation.

[Just Sayin]

I have heard somewhere that the VU budget is in the $100 million range. So I guess you have to look at the cost-benefit of eating $300-400k and how well you can measure the outcome. 

The PR impact and perception cuts both ways; internal with staff and external with alumni and fans.  It's very hard to measure either one. But that's why the Pres. and AD make the big bucks.

The latest tax return available from the IRS for VU reveals expenses, but doesn't break it down by department.
https://apps.irs.gov/pub/epostcard/cor/350868125_202006_990_2021051118083749.pdf

[vu84v2]

Valpo's annual athletic expenses for the academic year July 2020 to June 2021 were $11.3M. Universities are required to report their revenues and expenses to the US Dept of Education and the data is readily available on the US EADA website (as it is for 99% of universities). $2.16M of that is men's basketball.

[VUGrad1314]

Okay that number makes far more sense and considering that that number is down from where I've seen it before I can understand the financial trepidation surrounding decisions like this. Our budget seems like it's at or near the bottom of the MVC which might help explain our lack of competitiveness. Maybe it's not so much a will problem the money simply isn't there and we have to rely on these tournament credits for needed cash infusions unless and until we can get a coach that can take us out of the doldrums.

[vu84v2]

OK, more data on financial support of men's basketball in the MVC

2020-2021 Academic Year
1. Loyola $3.8M
2. Bradley $2.7M
3. Drake $2.6M
4. Northern Iowa $2.4M
5. Missouri State $2.2M
6. Valpo $2.16M
7. Illinois State $2.1M
8. Southern Illinois $1.9M
9. Evansville $1.8M
10. Indiana State $1.7M

Since COVID was a shock that affected schools in different ways, here is the last pre-COVID academic year (2018-2019)
1. Loyola $4.3M
2. Bradley $3.8M
3. Northern Iowa $$3.6M
4. Missouri State $2.8M
5. Drake $2.6M
6. Evansville $2.6M
7. Southern Illinois $2.5M
8. Illinois State $2.4M
9. Valpo $2.4M
10. Indiana State $2.1M

Reported revenue in this database is a bit strange, since it is not fully clear what comprises revenue (e.g. to what degree is tuition paid by non-scholarship athletes revenue), but:

For 2020-2021, average reported men's college basketball revenue in the MVC was $2.45M. Loyola was the highest at $3.8M and Valpo was seventh at $2.0M. Drake, Northern Iowa and Indiana State were the only schools reporting profit, Valpo reported a loss of about $140K.

For 2018-2019, average reported men's college basketball revenue in the MVC was $2.9M. Loyola was the highest at $4.3M and Valpo was eighth at $2.46M. Valpo was the only school reporting a profit (about $50K), though many reported breaking even.

Valpo was also the only MVC school reporting a profit in 2019-2020 from men's basketball (~$170K). Drake reported a steep loss for that academic year (~-$$1.3M)...but then reported about $1M in profit the following year.

Bottom line: Valpo is in the lower half of spending among MVC men's basketball programs, but their budget reduction following COVID was less (as a percentage of total expenses) than most MVC schools.

[VUGrad1314]

So the takeaway then is that we simply aren't spending enough which raises questions of overall commitment? I mean weren't we outspent by some in the HL and it didn't matter then. I still come down on the side of it being a personnel issue first and foremost though a bit more financial backing could probably help if it were feasible.

[VU2014]

I'm hoping on March 6th a press conference is called that a coaching search has begun.

[VU2014]

So the takeaway then is that we simply aren't spending enough which raises questions of overall commitment? I mean weren't we outspent by some in the HL and it didn't matter then. I still come down on the side of it being a personnel issue first and foremost though a bit more financial backing could probably help if it were feasible.

It comes down to the right leader leading the program and having adequate facilities. We have neither right now.

[vu72]

Our athletic budget is in the $100million range and we're complaining about $300K-$400K?

Now is pretty funny!  IU athletic budget shows they spent 102,000,000.

Here is an article showing expenses by school.

https://www.sportico.com/business/commerce/2021/college-sports-finances-database-intercollegiate-1234646029/

Here's another article--which is obviously outdated, showing revenues of 15.7 million and expenses of 13.5 million

https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/valparaiso-university/student-life/sports/#:~:text=Did%20the%20Valpo%20Athletics%20Program,paid%20out%20%2413%2C496%2C863%20in%20expenses.

[VULB#62]

Our athletic budget is in the $100million range and we're complaining about $300K-$400K?

Now is pretty funny!  IU athletic budget shows they spent 102,000,000.

Here is an article showing expenses by school.

https://www.sportico.com/business/commerce/2021/college-sports-finances-database-intercollegiate-1234646029/

Here's another article--which is obviously outdated, showing revenues of 15.7 million and expenses of 13.5 million

https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/valparaiso-university/student-life/sports/#:~:text=Did%20the%20Valpo%20Athletics%20Program,paid%20out%20%2413%2C496%2C863%20in%20expenses.

[/b]

BTW, VU2014 walked that $100 mil figure back and acknowledged it was incorrectly high about 6 posts ago. 

But thanks for the added info.  It's good stuff. I looked at the second one that I bolded. It was compiled before VU dropped MSO, but it is very informative anyway.  In that year, Valpo saw $15+ million in athletic revenue and had $13+ million in related expenses.  While revenue specifics are not revealed, it showed that athletics at Valpo ran at a profit  (~ $2.2 million) -- including sports like bowling and swimming that were "profitable."  Baseball was a big revenue generator (> $1.5 million) considering the size of the roster. Football accounted for almost a million and a quarter in revenue -- of course it would with 96 athletes.  I can only assume that a major contributor to the plus column is tuition and fees brought in by the, at the time, 489 male and female athletes (minus financial aid?). 

The "profit" is IMHO not a real profit because athletes absorb that while being on their "other" job  -- being a student and having to pay professor and admin salaries, etc., it does reflect how important athletics are in bringing in the bodies. 

[vu84v2]

So the takeaway then is that we simply aren't spending enough which raises questions of overall commitment? I mean weren't we outspent by some in the HL and it didn't matter then. I still come down on the side of it being a personnel issue first and foremost though a bit more financial backing could probably help if it were feasible.

It comes down to the right leader leading the program and having adequate facilities. We have neither right now.

After watching the Valpo game last night, I later watched much of the Saint Mary's - Gonzaga game (at Saint Mary's). We would all love Valpo to achieve at the same level as Saint Mary's. Furthermore, Saint Mary's offers a good comparison to Valpo - similar enrollment, slightly lower endowment. Why is Saint Mary's consistently good? First, they have a coach who has a clear system and demands that the team play within that system. Second, they recruit players who work within that system and find an advantage in recruiting (tremendous connections in Australia).

My point? The priority, far and away, is to find the right leader for the program - one who can implement a system (and there are many possible systems), get players who fit that system, and find success within that system. By prioritizing players who fit the system, I also think that you reduce the likelihood of transfers (another example of this, albeit in a bigger conference, is Marquette - regardless of a player's talent level, they are not going to be recruited and will not play at Marquette if they do not embrace Smart's system...and Marquette had no outgoing transfers after last season). Facilities? Sure, that would be nice - but Saint Mary's' facility is worse than the Arc.

[VULB#62]

That's exactly what McCollum said in his video with Andy Katz.

[Bumbo]

84:  curious how one might describe Coach's "system"