Let’s Speculate! Potential Valparaiso head basketball coach candidates

[mj]

I've been as tough on ML as anyone else, but I also recognize that he's been HC during a time of massive change in college basketball and at VU.

In the fall of 2016 Valpo enrolled a total of 4,439 students. In the fall of 2022 Valpo enrolled 2,964.

That's a massive drop of students in a short period of time and may help to explain why the ARC isnt as packed as before. Then you have the transfer rule change and the NIL money and suddenly the world is a very different place.

[David81]

I've been as tough on ML as anyone else, but I also recognize that he's been HC during a time of massive change in college basketball and at VU.

In the fall of 2016 Valpo enrolled a total of 4,439 students. In the fall of 2022 Valpo enrolled 2,964.

That's a massive drop of students in a short period of time and may help to explain why the ARC isnt as packed as before. Then you have the transfer rule change and the NIL money and suddenly the world is a very different place.

The enrollment drop from 2016 to present is a serious matter, but keep in mind that the 2016 figure included ~400-425 law students. My guess is that the law students weren't exactly packing the ARC, but more importantly, the drop in core undergraduate enrollment looks, well, less awful taking that into consideration.

[usc4valpo]

16 - good talking points but Lottich is the leader  to make this program successful and the program is on the down.  Lottich has had 7 years to prove himself and he has not met expectations. I get the other excuses, but he should be let go. However, since Valpo is strapped for cash and is apathetic toward athletics, they will keep him based on the contract. It's a sad situation that Padilla and Small cannot make decisions based on lack of funds.

That being said, sell the art, build what you need and keep Valpo sustainable.

[valpofb16]

USC, no doubt the program should move forward.

But it's not Matt's fault the school cannot move forward, and no man in their right mind will walk away from 345k to coach basketball.

That's all I'm saying. If somehow the University can move forward without crippling themselves they should. However if they are selling campus art to get out of the red. Not sure much is there.

[usc4valpo]

16, excellent points. At the end, Valpo will keep Lottich primarily for financial reasons and not because he is the ideal for the job. Pretty sad situation.

Sell the art and clean things up Valpo!

[VU2014]

#1 priority needs to be boosting enrollment. If the University manages this effectively and doesn't deteriorate the academic standards and achieve it in a cost effective way it will allow them to level set the budget. That may mean class sizes need to increase. That won't make faculty happy but it will allow VU to address some of the wage concerns.

[crusader05]

Valpo isn't selling Art to stay out of the red. They're selling art to accelerate the renovations that they believe they need now vs something that can/want to fundraise or borrow money for. Any school like valpo needs to find their equilibrium between size and cost to run. That's going to mean we need to increase enrollment and retain students and also maybe shrink down again. Nothing is static in academia, programs cut now can be brought back later, or make way for new ones. Programs excelling now may shrink over time.
Same thing with sports. Programs down low can bounce back, and programs at the top of their game can falter quickly. AGain the goal is balance. I want us to be comparable to the other schools in coach pay and resources for students (arena is nice yes but resources matter more) and then when or if we struggle we won't be able to blame it on anything else but the coach.

Valpo has always prided doing a lot of things that you wouldn't expect for a small school but at the expense of maybe keeping things afloat through lower salaries/making more with little. It's time to invest and sometimes investing means shrinking.

[David81]

So......I think it's foreseeable that during the years to come, a good number of regional, private universities with ok-to-mediocre D1 sports programs will drop down to D3 as institutional finances continue to pose a challenge. When I say ok-to-mediocre, I mean not only on the court/field performance, but also in fan support and interest from the student body. And once a few recognized schools do this, it could start a small cascade.

I think VU is at a crossroads in terms of its marquee D1 sports program, in ways that ripple out to every other intercollegiate sport at the University. I don't know what that means in terms of head coaching options. A contract is a contract, and breaking it means that -- in essence -- for the next 2 years, VU could be paying in the neighborhood of $750-850k to cover salaries for a new HC and the former one.

If it goes this route, then the new guy had better be the right pick, and that should be accompanied by other measures to bring back the MBB program and the fans. I cringe when I hear the phrase "go big or go home," but that might be the stakes at this juncture, especially given financial challenges facing the rest of the University.

[VU2014]

Not sure who is behind this twitter account but they are speculating on names for Valpo HC job.

https://twitter.com/cbbsearchfirm/status/1628108102330351633?s=46&t=YdD4uM1tLl3kCHZzESsGUw

https://twitter.com/aceinathletics/status/1628109616461627392?s=46&t=YdD4uM1tLl3kCHZzESsGUw

[tiny707]

Chris Beard is available....

[AB]

yeaaaah. Chris Beard's career is a chalk outline right now. Guy needs help in his personal life. Won't be coaching anytime soon unless he takes a G League assistant job or ends up overseas. Pitino is the only guy that has 9 lives

[historyman]

Barry Hinson? 16 years in the Missouri Valley and 2 at Oral Roberts


We should at least inquire. You never know what kind of answer Barry might come up with.


He surprised a lot of people when he resigned from his head coach position at Southern Illinois.

[VU2014]

Barry Hinson? 16 years in the Missouri Valley and 2 at Oral Roberts


We should at least inquire. You never know what kind of answer Barry might come up with.


He surprised a lot of people when he resigned from his head coach position at Southern Illinois.

Love Barry but we don't need a retread coach. No disrespect to him. He would be a phenomenal tv color analyst

[Chairback]

There are many ways to handle a new coaches contract and still pay a buyout of prior coach if your short funds right now.  It happens in everyday employment contracts.  You can work them 100 different ways to make it work.  Same thing with buyouts.  Many times you can rework those if there is a benefit to both parties.  You can lose future employment opportunities if you don't save face sometimes when being severed. 

The reality is the job is/will be attractive.  It's a D1 job in the MVC, with a program that has had prior success over a long period of time.  But you can only hold on to your prior press clippings for so long.

This will be an interesting few weeks ahead.  Probably one of the most important in program history.  Either keep the coach and publicly talk about what success looks like going forward and corrective steps, move on and start fresh with a new roster next year, or keep your head in the sand and things will continue to get worse.   

[AlaskaCrusader19]

yeaaaah. Chris Beard's career is a chalk outline right now. Guy needs help in his personal life. Won't be coaching anytime soon unless he takes a G League assistant job or ends up overseas. Pitino is the only guy that has 9 lives

Valpo won't be the one to hire Beard, and it may not happen in this cycle, but you can count on him getting a college job in the next few years. Someone will hire him.

[NotBryceDrew]

Barry Hinson, guy never won anything. He wasn't bad but I think there's a number of higher ceiling candidates out there, I would take his performance over Lottichs though.

[historyman]

Barry Hinson, guy never won anything. He wasn't bad but I think there's a number of higher ceiling candidates out there, I would take his performance over Lottichs though.

Barry may take the job with the low salary just for the challenge of it. Barry is a disciplined individual and would be better than Lottich which is a very key factor.

[valpofb16]

Current lower level coaches I'd take a look at (with last 3 year records):

Preston Spradlin 65-29 - Morehead State
John Becker 55-21 - Vermont
Rober Jones 60-23 - Norfolk State
Steve Lutz 42-21 - A&M Corpus Christi
Richie McKay 67-24 - Liberty
Paul Mills 62-27 - Oral Roberts
Eric Henderson 63-23- South Dakota St

Have to wonder if any of these proven small major guys could be brought over

[VULB#62]

Good research, 16.

[AlaskaCrusader19]

Current lower level coaches I'd take a look at (with last 3 year records):

Preston Spradlin 65-29 - Morehead State
John Becker 55-21 - Vermont
Rober Jones 60-23 - Norfolk State
Steve Lutz 42-21 - A&M Corpus Christi
Richie McKay 67-24 - Liberty
Paul Mills 62-27 - Oral Roberts
Eric Henderson 63-23- South Dakota St

Have to wonder if any of these proven small major guys could be brought over

I can't speak to all of these, but for guys like Becker and McKay that have been at those jobs for a long time, why would they leave? $300-400K from Valpo isn't going to get any of those guys.

[elephtheria47]

Agreed. Why take on a rebuilding challenge for that. Stay where you are, be successful again for a season or two, and punch your ticket to a much bigger paying job/stage.

[valporun]

Barry Hinson is a name that would be perfect to replace one of our assistant coaches, honestly. Maybe it isn't Lottich so much as Gore, Bowen or Holloway that are holding things back? Loyalty to assistant coaches can only go so far. Gore has been at Valpo since he was a GA back in 2002. Bowen is on his second go around at VU, and he wasn't a great D2 head coach at Bemidji St. I don't know enough about Holloway. In terms of these three, maybe it's time to cut one of them, and bring in a Barry Hinson-type who has coaching pedigree at the MVC/D-I level to be a stronger mentor to Lottich? Yes, I know...most of you want to cut Lottich because you don't like he's not a Drew, but some coaches realize their strengths are within, instead of access to longtime assistant coaches. I mean look at a lot of the Power 5s. Sure, some assistants stay around because they are good at a specific thing, like recruiting or coaching a specific part of the offense or defensive. At Valpo, I don't see that from our assistants. I just see three guys on the bench holding clipboards, or Bowen kicking back like he's the coaching guru that had 500 wins somewhere else, but doesn't show it in his demeanor.

[may know]

I also would love Barry Hinson, personally. Remember, he took over an 8-23 SIU program handcuffed by APR and had them as a 2-4 seed 4 straight years in years 4-7. The guy has proven success rebuilding from the bottom up.

Also, his 2006 Missouri St team was 21 in RPI. If they weren't objectively robbed, the "Barry Hinson never made an NCAA Tournament" knock would've never been a thing.

[Dr. T]

An interesting note concerning Barry Hinson. Currently, he's the Associate AD / NIL @ Oklahoma State.

https://okstate.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/coaches/barry-hinson/1874

He's an OK State graduate & was born in Marlow, OK.

During the height of the pandemic, his position was cut. But he voluntarily continued & showed up to work daily. That's dedication!!!

Unless Dr. Small has such a strong relationship with him and/or he's strapped for cash, I don't see him leaving OK State. That's dedication!

If I were him (assuming he's not strapped for cash and/or itching to leave his home state for NWI), I wouldn't leave that position to take on the unknowns surrounding this Valpo bball program ...

[David81]

There are many ways to handle a new coaches contract and still pay a buyout of prior coach if your short funds right now.  It happens in everyday employment contracts.  You can work them 100 different ways to make it work.  Same thing with buyouts.  Many times you can rework those if there is a benefit to both parties.  You can lose future employment opportunities if you don't save face sometimes when being severed. 

The reality is the job is/will be attractive.  It's a D1 job in the MVC, with a program that has had prior success over a long period of time.  But you can only hold on to your prior press clippings for so long.

This will be an interesting few weeks ahead.  Probably one of the most important in program history.  Either keep the coach and publicly talk about what success looks like going forward and corrective steps, move on and start fresh with a new roster next year, or keep your head in the sand and things will continue to get worse.   

Though I agree that a negotiated buyout should cost VU less than the 2 remaining years (taking from what others have posted here) on Coach Lottich's contract, I can't imagine him walking away for less than one year's severance. And frankly, I wouldn't blame him a bit for holding out for that, for the sake of his finances and family.

And while a year's severance at over $300k may be an acceptable deal at an institution that has some cash to spare (albeit painfully), it's an awful look for a school that has just laid off scores of promising tenure-track faculty and long-time valued employees, and is now about to sell off the most valuable pieces its own art museum to upgrade student housing. And keep in mind that that figure represents the total salaries of an entire small academic department at VU...and it's not as if morale within the current faculty should be disregarded.

The ideal thing would be for an anonymous donor to step up and cover the severance as a specified use gift. I've never heard of that occurring anywhere, but if you want to enable a transition that is fair to an outgoing coach who has given his best and is not going to anger a good cross-section of faculty and maybe some students, that's the way to go.