Let’s Speculate! Potential Valparaiso head basketball coach candidates

[elephtheria47]

Financial situation will make it tough to move on, but there could be a creative solve in there. Maybe give Tonagel the shot at head coach. Structure the deal so first year or two are low to not only account for the risk we are taking in an NAIA coach but also to offset the buyout for Lottich. Have an option to extend after year two at a set much higher amount should he perform well. We take a risk on Tonagel, he takes a gamble on himself. I would be excited to see what he could do in D1 and he may be one of the only coaches we would consider that would be willing to take a gamble like that.

Tonagel may do that but its setting everyone up for failure. Noone knows who he is in D1 and no players worth a damn are coming to play for a coach they dont know, is new to D1, and only has a contract for a year or two. You have to at least express belief in him by giving him a longer term contract to get going and well, we all know what can happen during long term contracts.


If we wanna get it done, eat the money now and load up on some buy games for the first part of the season while helping the new coach recruit with the experience of playing these venues/teams.

[VULB#62]

If the majority of the team is committed to leaving unless the staff is fired then that is probably information the administration should take into consideration. Also, they might be able to give insight into why the current program is the way it is. If there are factors at play that won't be fixed with a change in regime then that is also information the admin should know.

That scratches the surface pretty good, but the main reason you talk to the players is to gain and absorb more information from every possible source to make better-informed decisions.  It is also valuable in cross-referencing/confirming/discounting information gathered from other sources. From what I see in Small, he is a questioner and a listener. He does not shoot from the hip and carefully measures the data/info he collects.  In addition to internal discussions, I know he has already formally "chatted" 1 on 1 with some athletics fans to get their ideas and input and that is ongoing. 

[usc4valpo]

I wonder how open the players would be with Small regarding the status of the program, as something said by a player detrimental to the program or Lottich could put them in the so called doghouse. It's kind of like someone speaking their mind  at a company with human resources or a high level meeting, which could leave a dagger in them for the rest of their careers.

I saw this situation after a company does an employee survey and then they want to get feedback on the results. When it comes to the negative aspects, you hear the crickets and the leadership gets huffy about it.

[Chairback]

Player interviews by the AD should only be done if there is a serious issue above play performance or losing games.  We are just losing and nothing else.  You cannot involve the players in this.  It has to be results based, overall program progress. 

I'm sure AD Small has already defined what success and expectations are to the coaching staff.  He seems sharp and invested.   Everything I have seen so far shows he is good.  I see him as a strength for the university. 

One thing that no one from the university has publicly said or declared is there will be no coaching change.  With all the chatter and even PO's coverage on it you'd think someone would say something to squash the talk.  Sure, no response is needed but it would keep the heat off the coaching staff if you did publicly address it.  It could even help them. 

[VULB#62]

Kinda (but not vehemently) disagree, Chairback, on two elements of your reply.

The first is "we're just losing, nothing else."  That's a big nothing. Yes, the players are hanging in every game to the end. Nobody has accused them of quitting on the team/program. But it's how they are losing, the qualitative aspect vs. the quantity that is symptomatic of deeper root causes. That is something the AD has got to get to the bottom of, and any information source should be mined, before anything is discounted or dismissed.

Second, a good administrator always undertakes exit interviews to collect information from those leaving. It's just good business practice (and MBB is business). While returning players might feel a bit threatened, graduating seniors should not have have that concern. Hell, even if we went 30-0, Small would be well served by joining in exit interviews with departing players. As a matter of fact, having representative exits for all departing players would be a good practice across the board, but I digress. So Small could start with exit interviews. However, if certain disconcerting themes emerge, then he might want to dig a bit deeper on the player side, but that may not be necessary.

These are not player evaluations; these interviews are program focused.  It should be an open-minded AD asking good questions in the pursuit of honest opinion and more information. And Small does not strike me as the type of guy to go into any of his fact-finding in an adversarial manner.

And on a totally different note from the Bradley string, I totally agree with you on a 6pm start. I quickly checked all the other MVC team home schedules and could not find any of the other 11 teams scheduling evening games that early. Why are we the only ones?

[David81]

81 - selling the art is not a pleasant experience. However, are these desperate times?  I am simply lost and will never understand the financial situation. We have a $250m  endowment, why not tap into it?

To pick up on usc4valpo's and FWWalum's comments, VU cannot use interest generated by restricted endowment gifts for other than the designated purposes (e.g., an endowed scholarship fund) or draw down the principal on restricted endowment gifts, period.

VU can use interest generated by unrestricted endowment funds as it wishes. And it can potentially draw down on unrestricted endowment principal because there are no limits on its use, but for fiduciary and practical reasons it should do so only with great care and caution. The practical reason is this: Endowment principal is intended to throw off interest in perpetuity. Raiding endowment principal is akin to raiding one's 401k before retiring, and like the latter, should only be done when extenuating circumstances require it, e.g., financial exigency.

Keep in mind that an endowment around $250m, while certainly reflecting considerable growth over the years and competitive with a good number of peer institutions, is going to provide approx. $10m in usable revenue based on a standard 4% yield. That's a modest amount, much of which is spoken through designated endowment gifts and ongoing budget needs. (Again, it's very similar to an average % draw on a 401k.)

So......it means among other things:

1. It may be possible, though likely unadvisable, to draw on unrestricted endowment principal to cover a buyout for a departing coach ($375k-$750k); and,

2. It may be slightly possible, though even more unadvisable, to draw down on unrestricted endowment principal to pay for residence hall fixes and enhancements.

In Valpo's latest tax return 990, from 7/1/2019 to 6/30/2020, Part X (Balance Sheet), line 27 and 28, it shows:

Net Assets Without Donor Restrictions: $54,847,567
Net Assets With Donor Restrictions: $368,516,850

"Net Assets" is generally referred to as assets minus liabilities, what would be available after all current debt is paid. You still have to look where the liquid net assets are and ignore the fixed net assets.
The cash is there if you look at where the cash is in this tax return.
Cash-non interest bearing $8,527
Savings and temporary cash investments $7,709,968
Investments, public traded securities $21,760,946
Investments, other securities $254,248,709
Total: Rounded roughly $292.2 million

Not all of these investments can or should be sold immediately. But these are the liquid and near liquid assets. There is no disclosure I can find (it might be there in the fine print) that breaks these numbers down between restricted and unrestricted but the overall unrestricted net asset figure shown above of $54.8 million is roughly what they could use for discretionary, unrestricted available cash and near cash funds. Every program and interested party is fighting for these funds I'm guessing. All depends on priorities. The wigs say they are serious about the men's basketball program. Will they put their money where their mouth is? Probably not.

Yes, this does not mean that these numbers reflect today's balance, which could be more or less than the balances when the tax return was prepared.

But we cannot assume that the University can tap into even some of that $54.8m freely. The annual yield from that principal (assuming it's unrestricted endowment principal) is probably around $2-2.5m, and it's quite likely that there are important designated budget lines that eat up a lot of that money even if it's not restricted. And if we're talking about diverting that money to pay a buyout of say, $400k, to an outgoing coach, then it's quite possible that live, active programs will be diminished or closed and that more people will be laid off to pay a coach who is not coaching.

This is the challenge with zero-sum funding. Someone wins=someone loses. It's an institutional culture of scarcity, and sometimes -- as with the art work question -- it pits people against each other at a time when you need all hands on deck.

[Pgmado]

Just thought I'd check in here for a second to say this...

1) I have truly no idea what is going to happen a week or so from now.
2) I don't believe anything that happens on the court in the next week will change anything. Lose on Thursday. Make it to Saturday/Sunday. I'm guessing whatever is going to happen has already been decided. Stay. Gone. Staff shake up.

Interesting times to be sure.

[valpolaw]

What about Gregg Marshall? He's familiar with the valley. This program needs a jolt of energy

[VUGrad1314]

What about Gregg Marshall? He's familiar with the valley. This program needs a jolt of energy

Terrible human being. Doesn't fit Valpo AT ALL. Hard pass. I'd rather keep Lottich than hire a man like Marshall.

[historyman]

The ideal thing would be for an anonymous donor to step up and cover the severance as a specified use gift. I've never heard of that occurring anywhere, but if you want to enable a transition that is fair to an outgoing coach who has given his best and is not going to anger a good cross-section of faculty and maybe some students, that's the way to go.

If only there was a Valpo affiliated person who was willing to donate those kind of funds. But there isn't at the moment.

Are you all buying lottery tickets?

[VULB#62]

What about Gregg Marshall? He's familiar with the valley. This program needs a jolt of energy

Terrible human being. Doesn't fit Valpo AT ALL. Hard pass. I'd rather keep Lottich than hire a man like Marshall.

Even if VU was stupid enough to offer him a job at, say, $400k annually, he, in turn, would be stupid to take it as he is collecting $7.5 million in a buyout over six years.  What gets me is that some of the crap he pulled at Wichita State should have been grounds IMO for firing for cause and zero buyout. He did some despicable stuff.

[usc4valpo]

62 - an exit interview with seniors may not be effective either. some seniors may need help between the end of the season and graduation and saying something negative may negate any support or favors.


It goes back to the movie GoodFellas, where Henry learned 2 critical lessons in life after getting pinched - "Never rat on your friends, and always keep your mouth shut."

[VULB#62]

62 - an exit interview with seniors may not be effective either. some seniors may need help between the end of the season and graduation and saying something negative may negate any support or favors.

Favors, help in what respect that an AD can fail to give, stop or restrict? Pocket money? Assuming the Good Fellas scenario, tell profs to fail someone or deny physical therapy for an injury?

[David81]

The ideal thing would be for an anonymous donor to step up and cover the severance as a specified use gift. I've never heard of that occurring anywhere, but if you want to enable a transition that is fair to an outgoing coach who has given his best and is not going to anger a good cross-section of faculty and maybe some students, that's the way to go.

If only there was a Valpo affiliated person who was willing to donate those kind of funds. But there isn't at the moment.

Are you all buying lottery tickets?

At some schools, the President could make a call and it would happen. Maybe a discreet chat with a wealthy board member who happens to support the MBB team, followed by an announcement that a buyout will be subsidized by an anonymous alum. VU doesn't appear to be at that level right now.

I do wonder if there are alums out there who have done well and could be brought into a higher giving circle. A few years ago, I worked with the Development Office on an estate gift and found them to be extremely appreciative and helpful even though my gift is a modest one. But that's for another thread on this board.

[valpofb16]

Alumni donors come from school pride. Which appears to be at an all time low.

[valpo64]

valpofb16...I totally disagree with your assessment of pride in our school.  My wife and I have it and I am sure that many others on this board have it also.  As for the men's b-ball program...that's another story.

[David81]

Alumni donors come from school pride. Which appears to be at an all time low.

Without dismissing any of the current concerns and controversies discussed on this board, I think we should keep in mind:

1. VU managed to successfully wrap up a major fundraising campaign in the midst of a global pandemic. Because such campaigns are long-term investments in a university that come in over time (esp. the bequests), this couldn't be leveraged to avoid the awful layoffs and program cuts. But this was no small achievement in the current overall situation and demonstrated a respectable level of support from alums.

2. Many, many other universities similar to VU -- longstanding, quality academic institutions that fall outside of the charmed circle of wealthy, elite schools -- are facing similar challenges with enrollment and finances. It doesn't necessarily make VU's challenges easier to navigate, but it does provide a perspective of understanding of the systemic dynamics facing schools like Valpo.

[valpofb16]

People who took the above comment personally.

Was nothing personal. Just what's been collected from board, enrollment, general discussion of school decisions, branding, etc.

Yes. I am sure there are still people ou there who bleed brown and gold. I am one of those few. But I believe it's also fair to say Valpo is far from its Apex in terms of alumni support.

Agree $302,000,000 endowment campaign is very successful.

[historyman]

Tweet from Roger Powell


https://twitter.com/RogerPowellJr/status/1629741470667411456/photo/1

[VU2014]

Tweet from Roger Powell


https://twitter.com/RogerPowellJr/status/1629741470667411456/photo/1

Future Valpo Coach?

We'll know if University is moving on from Lottich probably in the next few weeks.

Paul O, once Valpo gets bounced from Arch Madness you have to ask the question, if he thinks he's coming back next season.

The University needs to give a response with a few days, even if it's "sources close to the Athletics Department" confirm Lottich will be coming back next season. The follow up question needs to be asked if Lottich is on the hot seat and in jeopardy of losing his job. Even if it's a "no comment" the question needs to be asked.

[Pgmado]

Tweet from Roger Powell


https://twitter.com/RogerPowellJr/status/1629741470667411456/photo/1

Future Valpo Coach?

We'll know if University is moving on from Lottich probably in the next few weeks.

Paul O, once Valpo gets bounced from Arch Madness you have to ask the question, if he thinks he's coming back next season.

The University needs to give a response with a few days, even if it's "sources close to the Athletics Department" confirm Lottich will be coming back next season. The follow up question needs to be asked if Lottich is on the hot seat and in jeopardy of losing his job. Even if it's a "no comment" the question needs to be asked.

Without question.

[historyman]

Tweet from Roger Powell


[tweet]1629741470667411456[/tweet]/photo/1

Future Valpo Coach?

We'll know if University is moving on from Lottich probably in the next few weeks.

Paul O, once Valpo gets bounced from Arch Madness you have to ask the question, if he thinks he's coming back next season.

The University needs to give a response with a few days, even if it's "sources close to the Athletics Department" confirm Lottich will be coming back next season. The follow up question needs to be asked if Lottich is on the hot seat and in jeopardy of losing his job. Even if it's a "no comment" the question needs to be asked.

Without question.

[JD24]

We should know within 24 hours of the buzzer of the final game in the Tournament. There's nothing to contemplate at this point and I would hope the Univ. knows what they are going to do.

If we hear nothing, it probably means he's going to survive.

[valporun]

In all honesty, as a professor at the University, and an independent sports writer, I would hope Pgmado plays the ethics card, and leaves this question unasked, if no one else asks it first...

[David81]

People who took the above comment personally.

Was nothing personal. Just what's been collected from board, enrollment, general discussion of school decisions, branding, etc.

Yes. I am sure there are still people ou there who bleed brown and gold. I am one of those few. But I believe it's also fair to say Valpo is far from its Apex in terms of alumni support.

Agree $302,000,000 endowment campaign is very successful.

valpofb16, thank you for the above, but really, I think it's just a frustrating and concerning time for anyone who cares about the University, its people, its sports teams, etc.

So, there will be healthy differences of opinion at times, some healthy venting, a bit of exasperation. It's all good though. Better to be engaged than disengaged!

I always appreciate your contributions to these discussions. And from even before I started actively posting here, I've found that your updates & insights on the football team are invaluable!