Let’s Speculate! Potential Valparaiso head basketball coach candidates

[Dr. T]

Well - assuming we hear confirmation one way or the other concerning ML's future at Valpo after Arch Madness comes to a close - at least we'll be able to put the speculation to rest. I'll hop on a few more times to gripe about it for cathartic fandom purposes. Then, I'll enjoy March Madness in all its glory, pulling for the upsets, & playing the bracket games. All the while, Valpo basketball will fade into a repressed memory. I'll blow the dust off my Valpo fandom once the college football season fleshes itself out. I'll restore some hope again - at least for a few months. Season ticket? Certainly not. Attend a game or two? Most likely. Financially contribute? Hard pass.

[Pgmado]

Well - assuming we hear confirmation one way or the other concerning ML's future at Valpo after Arch Madness comes to a close - at least we'll be able to put the speculation to rest. I'll hop on a few more times to gripe about it for cathartic fandom purposes. Then, I'll enjoy March Madness in all its glory, pulling for the upsets, & playing the bracket games. All the while, Valpo basketball will fade into a repressed memory. I'll blow the dust off my Valpo fandom once the college football season fleshes itself out. I'll restore some hope again - at least for a few months. Season ticket? Certainly not. Attend a game or two? Most likely. Financially contribute? Hard pass.

Subscribe to TheVictoryBell.com?

[Dr. T]

Paul - yes, I am a subscriber.

[usc4valpo]

You can't please everyone all the time. Sell the art, clean up the dorms and get rid of ML. do the right thing.  Make Valpo great again!

[VULB#62]

MVGA.!!!!

Cool, we may have something here. How do we handle this?  Miv Gah? Em Vega?

😀

Sorry, USC,  I couldn't resist.

[usc4valpo]

Let's have fun with this storm.  I am tired of hearing with can't be done. We can't sell art, the theatre and creative writing majors will march and say bad things to the president.  Valpo needs to show some guts, at least Padilla is trying and not just conforming to what can't be done. Be creative, explore solutions.

Min gah!

[vu72]

The Moody's downgrade points to how the Board needs to proceed, and proceed quickly. This from the report:

The downgrade to Baa2 reflects a large structural budget imbalance, with weak operating performance and debt service coverage likely over the next several years. Liquidity is already very thin, inclusive of draws under a working capital line, and will erode further, with the pace of decline dependent on the ability to successfully implement in a timely way initiatives to realign its program and expense structure with enrollment amid a difficult regional student market. The university generated a nearly 8% operating deficit in fiscal 2022 and the deficit for fiscal 2023 is forecast to be substantially worse, with below 1.0x debt service coverage from regular operations.

So borrowing more money--for the dorm remodel--would be very costly, and probably impossible.

The report also gives us the needed action:

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

- Failure to make progress towards stabilizing enrollment in fall 2023 with growth in net student revenue


This isn't a concern that needs to be addressed in the next few years, it is a NOW issue--THE FALL OF 2023 ISSUE.  Painful as the sale of the art is to valpopal and others, it provides the cash necessary to MOVE NOW--not later, to address the elephant in the room--WE NEED TO INCREASE ENROLLMENT.

It took courage on the part of the board and President Padilla.  I applaud then for making a very hard decision when no other option has been presented to face this reality head on.

[4throwfan]

If we assume that MBB is a draw for new and returning students, then MBB could be seen as an enrollment investment.  However, that would only come from improved W/L.  A coaching change now very likely would not result in W/L improvement for a few years.  That would not address the "Now" problem in 72's note above.  However, not making a change simply (in my uneducated opinion) kicks the can down the road.

I would imagine that the University has a lot of tough decisions ahead that will make today's decisions pale.

[crusader05]

One other piece I sometimes think about is that Valpo choose to promote an assistant coach with little experience.  I think there can be a case to say we knew that there would be growing pains, we knew we were handing him a difficult situation that would require him to learn on the job. Here are the signs we think that he is starting to figure things out: XXX, here is the benchmark we've sent for the the next two years: XXXX.

[valpofb16]

Speaking to enrollment. Id like to have a budget sheet for the University.

I have had recruits message me saying Valpo is top choice, not enough aid. Only to turn around and go nonscholarship elsewhere.

Has Valpo enrollment decided they'd rather have an empty room than a student paying 30% list price? I would think in Valpos situation you take something over nothing right?

Note: I think this generation is wisening up to the predatory lending that went on in the late 2000s / early 2010s. Many private institutions are dealing with same issues.

[crusader05]

Too much of a discount rate is not good for a university's budget sheet because you than may need two students to net the same amount of money vs one student who is wiling/able to pay more. That's a dangerous game around enrollment because you could theoretically increase enrollment while not increasing money brought in.

[valpo95]

Speaking to enrollment. Id like to have a budget sheet for the University.

You can get the FY2022 audit results (with the associated financial statements) here https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/350868125.

This does not break out all of the budget line items, yet it gives a sense of the University's financial situation.

[vu72]

Speaking to enrollment. Id like to have a budget sheet for the University.

You can get the FY2022 audit results (with the associated financial statements) here https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/350868125.

This does not break out all of the budget line items, yet it gives a sense of the University's financial situation.

As a numbers guy I found the report pretty fascinating.  The University is a very complex organization.

A few quick observations: Salaries increased from 46 mil to 53 mil; Endowment payout: 23 mil v. 16 mil; Operating Revenue 119.6 v. 116.2, but, net loss of 1.1 mil v. a gain of 8.6 mil. Cash and cash equivalents 18.1 mil v. 13.7. Bad news, the endowment fell to 338 mil v. 367.

[4throwfan]

VU72, do you know whether the endowment decrease was simply market valuation loss?

[vu72]

VU72, do you know whether the endowment decrease was simply market valuation loss?

A little confusing but looks like a small decline in asset value coupled with the distribution size:

Changes in Net Assets With Donor Restrictions
Private gifts and grants 3,221 
Other endowment income 278 
Split-interest agreements (1,238) 
Investment (loss) income (519) 
Endowment payout   (23,756)
Net gain (loss) on endowment investments (2,162) 
Return of grant funds (4,770) -
Net assets released from restrictions (4,438) 

(Decrease) increase in net assets with donor restrictions (33,384)

[Dr. T]

If helpful to the conversation surrounding the decline in enrollment, that data is public
https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/institutional-research/enrollment-data/

[AlaskaCrusader19]

If helpful to the conversation surrounding the decline in enrollment, that data is public
https://www.valpo.edu/institutional-effectiveness/institutional-research/enrollment-data/

Going from approx. 3200 undergrads to approx. 2200 in a span of five years isn't ideal, to say the bare minimum.

[valpo95]

As a numbers guy I found the report pretty fascinating.  The University is a very complex organization.

A few quick observations: Salaries increased from 46 mil to 53 mil; Endowment payout: 23 mil v. 16 mil; Operating Revenue 119.6 v. 116.2, but, net loss of 1.1 mil v. a gain of 8.6 mil. Cash and cash equivalents 18.1 mil v. 13.7. Bad news, the endowment fell to 338 mil v. 367.

vu72, I figured you might like to see those numbers. As far as I can tell, the 2022 buy-outs were part of the salary line item. The Board may have authorized a larger endowment pay-out to cover those one time costs.

[justducky]

Any warm body not named Lottich will do.

[VULB#62]

Murray is killing us. All their transfers in are coming together just at the right time 🙄. It's not like the Butler beatdown in Carlson's last FB game, but none-the-less pretty devastating.

Seriously, I think that Matt, one day, will be a very good college coach. Unfortunately, he was thrown in the pool without any swimming lessons and over the past seven years he was splashing around just trying to keep his head above water. He needs to step back, absorb lessons from the experience and the wisdom of more experienced head coaches, and develop a sound approach. It'll take a few years and he has the coach/player relationship stuff pretty much down — hell, he is a genuine human being which has always been clear. Now it's the Xs and O and the mid-game strategy and adjustments that he has to learn - stuff you aren't always capable of figuring out yourself.

Another year at Valpo will not give Matt that overnight.

[covufan]

I agree the University / Small / Padilla could come out and say Matt is our guy.

If my memory serves correct Valparaiso has fired one coach "prematurely" in the 12 years I have followed the school.

That was Dale Carlson , with a 3-43 record. With one game left on the contract

Most would say it was way overdue


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[valpo tundra]

Looking at the financial statements is revealing in many ways. When you see that some of the highest paid employees for the entire university were Law Professors, it makes you wonder. This shows how painful, and necessary, the closing was. Law School Faculty were literally paid millions of dollars the last year to honor the commitment to about a dozen students who remained.

[justducky]

Is anybody over here actually watching MVC basketball or have you ceased being fans of the game? There is more in life than Matt Lottich.

[VU2014]

Hot off the press. I encourage everyone to read Paul's latest article.

Way-Too-Early look at 2023-24 Valpo Basketball
MBB: Two big questions entering offseason will shape next season

Paul Oren

https://www.thevictorybell.com/p/way-too-early-look-at-2023-24-valpo

[VULB#62]

I also posted that recommendation on another thread. Its very good!