Speculate on Valpo's Final Ranking: Colley’s "What If" Tool

[Just Sayin]

A neat little tool to see where Valpo will end up in the rankings by assuming wins (or losses or both) against the remaining schedule.

The results show a column for Valpo's current rank and all other teams as well as a column for all the teams including Valpo after the changes you make.

Here is Colley's tool:

https://www.colleyrankings.com/hplaygod.html

[Just Sayin]

You can only put five teams at a time in the grid.
I picked Valpo to beat Drake, Missouri State, Bradley, Indiana State, and Southern Illinois. (Pure fantasy as we all know)

Here are the results:

Valpo current rank: 304
Valpo with 5 wins: 204

Drake current rank: 83
Drake after Valpo loss: 104

Indiana State current rank: 100
Ind St after Valpo loss:  109

So. Illinois current rank: 104
So. ILL after Valpo loss: 118

Bradley current rank: 110
Bradley after Valpo loss: 121

Missouri State currrent rank: 166
Mz St after Valpo loss: 188

Remember, this is Colley's ranking system which is purely mathematical and he publishes his methodology for all to see. Something Kenpom, Sagarin, and others do not do. Massey is another one of the few who reveal his methodology. This only shows what would happen if Valpo won only those five games shown above. Valpo has 12 remaining games.

[Dr. T]

So ... in summary ... if/when a team loses to Valpo, their score goes down because Valpo (mathematically) is terrible?

[Just Sayin]

Teams with bad losses get penalized in most rating systems.

[Dr. T]

I'm aware - but it was cathartic for me to respond with a petty response

[valpo64]

Where does the MVC rank among the overall conference rankings?  Also, where is that info found?

[covufan]

Where does the MVC rank among the overall conference rankings?  Also, where is that info found?

Massey College Basketball Rankings Composite:

https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm


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[tjjvalpo]

Valpo now at a NET ranking of 288 and 10th in our conference after the win over IL State. How high could we get? I think it will take a lot more wins to get anywhere close to 204.

[valpo64]

Just Sayin...thanks for the composite rankings, very informative

[crusadermoe]

MVC has 4 teams in the Top 110.  Not anything great.  But pretty solid. 

On the topic of conferences, Butler got crushed by U. Conn yesterday.  20+ points down at the half and bigger deficit quickly after. The Big East is a whole different animal than their last two conferences. Did they go up one too far?

[valpo64]

You might ask the same question regarding Loyola.

[vu72]

You might ask the same question regarding Loyola.

No doubt about Loyola.  Much like us, they moved up based on a team that basically graduated.  Loyola is now in LAST place in a conference on par with the Valley, maybe, just maybe, a touch better. Our friend Sheldon Edwards who jumped ship to get on the Loyola bandwagon, is now enjoying 9.1 minutes playing time per game, starting zero games, averaging 2.9 ppg and shooting 16.7% from the 3. Ouch! 

Butler has struggled in the Big East for almost all of their time there.  They now sit in 10th place out of 11 teams. Shay Frederick is in the same spot as Sheldon. She has started only 10 of 19 games for their women's team which also sits in 10th place. They just lost to UConn by 40! Shay is averaging 4.1 points per game, down from 12 ppg for us last year.

[Just Sayin]

Valpo current T-Rank: 301
What if Valpo's reamining schedule looked like this:

Evansville  - Win
Missouri St. - Win
Drake - Loss
Ind. State - Loss
Illinois St. - Win
So. Illlinois @ home - Win
Illinois Chicago - Win
Bradley - Loss
Murray St. - Win

Record: 6-3

Final T-Rank rank would be: 122

Here is the the T-Ranketolgoy Forecast Tool for these assumptions:

Dream On
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank=301&team=Valparaiso&year=2023&bracket=1&ValparaisoToledo11-7=A&Western_MichiganValparaiso11-13=A&ValparaisoChicago_St_11-16=A&Incarnate_WordValparaiso11-19=A&ValparaisoSamford11-23=A&South_Dakota_St_Valparaiso11-25=A&James_MadisonValparaiso11-27=A&ValparaisoBelmont12-1=A&Murray_St_Valparaiso12-4=A&Trinity_ChristianValparaiso12-6=A&ValparaisoMississippi12-10=A&ElonValparaiso12-18=A&StonehillValparaiso12-21=A&ValparaisoDrake12-29=A&Indiana_St_Valparaiso1-1=W&Northern_IowaValparaiso1-4=W&ValparaisoBradley1-7=A&BelmontValparaiso1-10=A&ValparaisoEvansville1-14=A&Illinois_ChicagoValparaiso1-17=A&ValparaisoIllinois_St_1-21=A&ValparaisoNorthern_Iowa1-25=A&EvansvilleValparaiso1-28=W&ValparaisoMissouri_St_2-1=W&DrakeValparaiso2-4=L&ValparaisoIndiana_St_2-8=L&Illinois_St_Valparaiso2-11=W&Southern_IllinoisValparaiso2-14=W&ValparaisoIllinois_Chicago2-19=W&BradleyValparaiso2-22=L&ValparaisoMurray_St_2-26=W&x1_type=&x1_loc=&x1_team=&x1_res=&x2_type=&x2_loc=&x2_team=&x2_res=&x3_type=&x3_loc=&x3_team=&x3_res=&x4_type=&x4_loc=&x4_team=&x4_res=&x5_type=&x5_loc=&x5_team=&x5_res=


What if Valpo got the autobid? What seed?

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank=301&team=Valparaiso&year=2023&bracket=1&ValparaisoToledo11-7=A&Western_MichiganValparaiso11-13=A&ValparaisoChicago_St_11-16=A&Incarnate_WordValparaiso11-19=A&ValparaisoSamford11-23=A&South_Dakota_St_Valparaiso11-25=A&James_MadisonValparaiso11-27=A&ValparaisoBelmont12-1=A&Murray_St_Valparaiso12-4=A&Trinity_ChristianValparaiso12-6=A&ValparaisoMississippi12-10=A&ElonValparaiso12-18=A&StonehillValparaiso12-21=A&ValparaisoDrake12-29=A&Indiana_St_Valparaiso1-1=W&Northern_IowaValparaiso1-4=W&ValparaisoBradley1-7=A&BelmontValparaiso1-10=A&ValparaisoEvansville1-14=A&Illinois_ChicagoValparaiso1-17=A&ValparaisoIllinois_St_1-21=A&ValparaisoNorthern_Iowa1-25=A&EvansvilleValparaiso1-28=W&ValparaisoMissouri_St_2-1=W&DrakeValparaiso2-4=L&ValparaisoIndiana_St_2-8=L&Illinois_St_Valparaiso2-11=W&Southern_IllinoisValparaiso2-14=W&ValparaisoIllinois_Chicago2-19=W&BradleyValparaiso2-22=L&ValparaisoMurray_St_2-26=W&x1_type=&x1_loc=&x1_team=&x1_res=&x2_type=&x2_loc=&x2_team=&x2_res=&x3_type=&x3_loc=&x3_team=&x3_res=&x4_type=&x4_loc=&x4_team=&x4_res=&x5_type=&x5_loc=&x5_team=&x5_res=&cc=1

Just barely avoided the play-in game decided by the rank of the last two 16 seeds.