What will the decision be?

[vu72]

I wonder whether the cost of NOT making a change is greater than the sunk cost of making a change.

My very uneducated analysis showed that over the last two year attendance has fallen an average of about 1200 per game since the last time we had a winning record.  I used an average ticket price of $20 which may or may not be accurate.  Part of the decline, no doubt, has to do with the opponent and week scheduling but if I'm even close the revenue lost over two years approaches $500,000.

[bigmosmithfan_2]

Thanks, vu72, and in no way do I blame President Padilla or AD Small for this predicament that they inherited. My ire is directed at some of the other folks who led us to this point and who always kicked the can down the road, or pulled the "we don't fill the seats we have now," or "we're winning without a good facility, why do we need one?"

[bigmosmithfan_2]

University isn't going to break tradition and fire a coach prematurely. They sure are not going to do it and pay an additional 690k.

Tradition?! Where is this tradition? There has been one, and exactly one, coach in VU's Division I history who was in a position to be fired "prematurely." That was Homer Drew early in his career... 30+ years ago now. When the program had no resources, no investment, an unstable conference, and no fanbase. And if Homer hadn't landed two P5-level transfers from Valpo High who decided to come home from far-flung schools seeking playing time, he might well have been. Because without those two guys showing the program could turn around, Bryce almost certainly takes the scholarship offer from Jim Boeheim and is a Syracuse legend today.


The remainder of our D-1 history? Ken Rochlitz, who left on his own to go coach a JUCO in Wyoming, because that was a program with better commitment than VU at the time. Tom Smith, who resigned because no one cared enough to put him on the hot seat to go take a D-2 HC job in Missouri, where he went on to become a Hall of Famer for that university. Scott Drew, who coached one year before being hired away by Baylor. Homer, who retired as an all-time coaching legend. And Bryce, who took us to two NCAA tourneys and got hired away by a P5 school.


There is no "tradition" of not firing coaches at VU. It's one coach, who had only been year five years instead of Lottich's seven, who was given another year when he landed two big-time local transfers at a time when the university was averaging three-figure attendance and invested a fraction of the money in sports it does now. There are TWICE as many coaches who have left VU for lower-division jobs of their own volition because of the university's lack of commitment to hoops, than there are coaches who were saved by this "tradition" of not firing coaches early.


To reiterate my theme from the other night, if there is an unwritten policy that VU doesn't fire coaches before contracts are up, say that. Tell your fanbase, donors and stakeholders that.


Finally, 690K is a literal drop in the bucket for any four-year university (yes, even a "broke" one). It's an inconsequential sum for a school with VU's operating budget. It is absolutely a small investment for an athletic department one of the top-rated mid-major leagues in the country. If that is the reason given why the university can't make a change, then they should do everyone a favor and just drop to D-3 or NAIA now.

[crusader05]

Yeah, at the end of the day I think if ML stays it's because of some desire to give him more time for some reason or another that may never be articulated to the fans OR in light of the Art Sale they may think the blowback from faculty wouldn't be worth it.

But I think the university could easily budget that money especially as next year they will not have the yearly payout for some staff and faculty that came from the early retirement incentive on the books

[usc4valpo]

I just hope Valpo is transparent about their reasoning on the decision they make.

[vu72]

Yeah, at the end of the day I think if ML stays it's because of some desire to give him more time for some reason or another that may never be articulated to the fans OR in light of the Art Sale they may think the blowback from faculty wouldn't be worth it.

But I think the university could easily budget that money especially as next year they will not have the yearly payout for some staff and faculty that came from the early retirement incentive on the books

I did a very quick and undoubtedly very inaccurate analysis of Valpo sports revenue and decided the gross ticket receipts coupled with two buy games from football came in around $1.4 million. When considering that about 20% of total enrollment comes from athletes, and that many of those athletes pay part or full tuition, it points out the incredible importance of athletics to the university.  Winning is really important and is reflected in the ticket sales.  For example, Volleyball, with a winning tradition, averaged 600 in attendance per contest while Woman's basketball, with a losing tradition, only drew 358 on average per game.  Football, with a program moving forward in a positive direction, drew 2147 per game including only 419 on a miserable day for the Drake game, while Men's basketball, again with a losing tradition of late, only drew 1625 per game.

The financial decision for a change can be justified on several fronts, dollars shouldn't be the issue holding back on a change.

[4throwfan]

VU72, I know the discussion is very superficial, and is not inclusive all factors.  Nonetheless, I do point out a factor that I think must also be considered.  If there is a change, the revenue recovery is not guaranteed, nor will it be immediate.  However, your thinking can possibly still be justified with a present value calculation based on projected improvement.

I'm out of my lane here, so any 'numbers guys' on the board should feel free to correct me.

[usc4valpo]

the apathy of the basketball program has higher ramifications than just ticket sales. A no change decision implies that Valpo does not care about the program. That also reflects the attitude of the university that wants to promote an inclusive, homey atmosphere. A $700K buyout is crumbs compared to the bigger picture.

This decision should not be difficult.

[AlaskaCrusader19]

Yeah, at the end of the day I think if ML stays it's because of some desire to give him more time for some reason or another that may never be articulated to the fans OR in light of the Art Sale they may think the blowback from faculty wouldn't be worth it.

But I think the university could easily budget that money especially as next year they will not have the yearly payout for some staff and faculty that came from the early retirement incentive on the books

See, I don't think there's any desire to give him more time. To look at the results since joining the Missouri Valley and think he needs more time would fall under the definition of insanity. He's had one great weekend, one okay season and a whole lot of losing.

[wh]

the apathy of the basketball program has higher ramifications than just ticket sales. A no change decision implies that Valpo does not care about the program. That also reflects the attitude of the university that wants to promote an inclusive, homey atmosphere. A $700K buyout is crumbs compared to the bigger picture.

This decision should not be difficult.

USC - I'm with you in spirit, but not in truth. As much as I love Valpo bb and as much as I want to see it return to its rightful place among the elite mid-major programs, spending $700K to buyout the bb coach pales in comparison to investing in critical facility needs like enhanced dorm features and nursing facilities (VU's largest academic program). As a donor, I have earmarked contributions to athletics over academics in the past. Not next time. I simply can't justify it in the grand scheme of needs. In fact, if Valpo were to start a capital fundraising campaign for nursing and dorm facilities, I would probablly jump right on board. That said, I want you to know that I LOVE your passion for Valpo bb, along with everyone who shares your opinion. wh

[David81]

Finances and the unexpected political optics of the art sale may have more to do with the decision than the merits of the team's on-the-court performance. On the latter, the blowout loss against Murray State settled that question. It was a statement game in the worst way possible.

[usc4valpo]

wh - in this era of Div. 1 college athletics, a $700K decision is minimal for almost every program. This is why we should consider stepping down. The committment is not there to excel.

[JD24]

the apathy of the basketball program has higher ramifications than just ticket sales. A no change decision implies that Valpo does not care about the program. That also reflects the attitude of the university that wants to promote an inclusive, homey atmosphere. A $700K buyout is crumbs compared to the bigger picture. This decision should not be difficult.

USC - I'm with you in spirit, but not in truth. As much as I love Valpo bb and as much as I want to see it return to its rightful place among the elite mid-major programs, spending $700K to buyout the bb coach pales in comparison to investing in critical facility needs like enhanced dorm features and nursing facilities (VU's largest academic program). As a donor, I have earmarked contributions to athletics over academics in the past. Not next time. I simply can't justify it in the grand scheme of needs. In fact, if Valpo were to start a capital fundraising campaign for nursing and dorm facilities, I would probablly jump right on board. That said, I want you to know that I LOVE your passion for Valpo bb, along with everyone who shares your opinion. wh

I think you're supporting USC's point here.

[wh]

the apathy of the basketball program has higher ramifications than just ticket sales. A no change decision implies that Valpo does not care about the program. That also reflects the attitude of the university that wants to promote an inclusive, homey atmosphere. A $700K buyout is crumbs compared to the bigger picture. This decision should not be difficult.

USC - I'm with you in spirit, but not in truth. As much as I love Valpo bb and as much as I want to see it return to its rightful place among the elite mid-major programs, spending $700K to buyout the bb coach pales in comparison to investing in critical facility needs like enhanced dorm features and nursing facilities (VU's largest academic program). As a donor, I have earmarked contributions to athletics over academics in the past. Not next time. I simply can't justify it in the grand scheme of needs. In fact, if Valpo were to start a capital fundraising campaign for nursing and dorm facilities, I would probablly jump right on board. That said, I want you to know that I LOVE your passion for Valpo bb, along with everyone who shares your opinion. wh

I think you're supporting USC's point here.

Apparently, we have different takes on the meaning of his post, which was:

"A no change decision implies that Valpo does not care about the program. That also reflects the attitude of the university that wants to promote an inclusive, homey atmosphere. A $700K buyout is crumbs compared to the bigger picture."

I'm afraid I'm still interrupting it the same way; that is, "the cost" is a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things so go ahead and do it. Had he said "the importance" or "the benefit" is a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things, I would have thought of it differently. Maybe USC can clarify for us.

[usc4valpo]

I can live with the word change, just make the right decisions and not commit to mediocrity.

[JD24]

the apathy of the basketball program has higher ramifications than just ticket sales. A no change decision implies that Valpo does not care about the program. That also reflects the attitude of the university that wants to promote an inclusive, homey atmosphere. A $700K buyout is crumbs compared to the bigger picture. This decision should not be difficult.

USC - I'm with you in spirit, but not in truth. As much as I love Valpo bb and as much as I want to see it return to its rightful place among the elite mid-major programs, spending $700K to buyout the bb coach pales in comparison to investing in critical facility needs like enhanced dorm features and nursing facilities (VU's largest academic program). As a donor, I have earmarked contributions to athletics over academics in the past. Not next time. I simply can't justify it in the grand scheme of needs. In fact, if Valpo were to start a capital fundraising campaign for nursing and dorm facilities, I would probablly jump right on board. That said, I want you to know that I LOVE your passion for Valpo bb, along with everyone who shares your opinion. wh

I think you're supporting USC's point here.

Apparently, we have different takes on the meaning of his post, which was: "A no change decision implies that Valpo does not care about the program. That also reflects the attitude of the university that wants to promote an inclusive, homey atmosphere. A $700K buyout is crumbs compared to the bigger picture." I'm afraid I'm still interrupting it the same way; that is, "the cost" is a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things so go ahead and do it. Had he said "the importance" or "the benefit" is a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things, I would have thought of it differently. Maybe USC can clarify for us.

I think his post was more in line of the school not making a change because, in a sense, they can't afford to is a problem from a few different points of view.

[valpofb16]

Could be waiting on Popovich season to end with the Spurs....

[JD24]

Could be waiting on Popovich season to end with the Spurs....

Boeheim's available.

[crusadermoe]

Bobby Knight?   The chairbacks are bolted down.

[Valpo1993]

The school can change their name faster than they can change a coach..... LOL.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[historyman]

Bobby Knight?   The chairbacks are bolted down.

But not the actual chairs that the players, coaches and staff sit on.

[David81]

Bobby Knight?   The chairbacks are bolted down.

Forgive this tangent, but I was in high school in NW Indiana when Bobby Knight was all the rage (pun intended). Let's just say there were more than a few high school and junior high b-ball coaches who thought that emulating his emotional excesses ("Be Like Bob!") would somehow turn them into great coaches, when in reality they were just rageaholics who sucked at coaching, too.

And now I return you to our Valpo Vigil....

[JD24]

Mark Adams of Texas Tech is out after using scripture to "help" some of his players.

Basketball coach? Scripture? Sounds like a perfect fit!!!

[NativeCheesehead]

Absolutely unreal we have gone a week without a peep. Not even a "We'll be meeting with Coach Lottich soon to discuss the direction of the program."

[historyman]

Absolutely unreal we have gone a week without a peep. Not even a "We'll be meeting with Coach Lottich soon to discuss the direction of the program."

Time to get on with your life, okay. Believe me! Nothing is going to happen with Coach Lottich. All is being handled privately. There will be no announcements till September/October as is usual. Student/Athlete movement will be in the media as usual.