What if Powell's First Year is Horrible? Would that be a Failure?

[Just Sayin]

Coming from someone who told ML that I thought his hire of Lottich was a good decision, it took a few years of the same old same old to realize I was wrong. But I waited to see the evidence.
An Olympic athelete responded to a question asking "do you view this season as a failure?" His response exempifies, in my view, how we should view an unsuccessful first season, or even an "unsuccessful" season the first two or three years.

https://twitter.com/willmaup/status/1651816167470952451

[crusader05]

I definitely don't view it as a failure. It seems hypocritical of us to bemoan students who jump into the transfer portal for searching for the immediate upgrade vs sticking around to build something and than demand of an entire coaching staff immediate success or really any success, especially when they are not walking into a successful program.

I want to see certain things from Roger that include: a clear vision for the future of the team, energy around coaching and leading the men, a clear offensive strategy and ability to adjust and think on his feet. None of those may result in wins but they would feel like a step forward.

[VULB#62]

What is horrible?  If horrible is defined solely by the W-L record, that would be an unfair standard for year one. I believe Roger promised only two things:  a fast paced game coupled with intense defense. That's what we need to see every game — win or lose ( and we will lose). That, to me, is first year success. First year failure to me would be if neither of these two style characteristics are in evidence and a team identity is not created. 

In my view, I hope we have a team on the floor made up of five John Kisers running around giving themselves up on every play.  And when they lose, and they will to more talented teams, I want to feel that every player gave their best effort and played intelligent ball and every coach made the best in-game decisions to be competitive. Simple as that.

[VUGrad1314]

All I'm looking for is something I didn't have in the Lottich era for a long time: Hope. The W-L record can be similar this year but as long as there is hope as in clear signs of the team improving and taking on a vision and an identity--a lasting identity that sticks (something Lottich never had) it won't be a failure. We need to remember that we were at the point where Lottich's performance every year was such a failure that we weren't even considering it a failure anymore. At the point Lottich left us in virtually nothing Powell does in year one can be a failure. It's a total free roll for him.

[tiny707]

I don't mind it at all when The Rev says Beacon of Light or promotes the two new mascots so that is progress...

[elephtheria47]

I think everyone kind of expects next year to be bad with the timing of the change and player retentions, so I kind of struggle coming up with a scenario to define horrible/failure. We have to keep in mind Powell's learning the ropes as he goes along next year too.

As others have mentioned, Lottich results were so bad we stopped labeling it a failure and looked for any and all reasons to be optimistic. I don't think we will get to that point next year. And the second, which ties in with the first, is hope.  It's been a long time since there's been hope in the program. We've invested in the entire coaching staff and have too much talent there to not provide glimpses of hope for the future even if the results are not stellar next season.

[vu72]

I think a lot of what we see or hope to see relative to success or failure will end up coming from Roger himself.  If you watched the Matt Lottich coaches show if was a bunch of excuses and outright apathy.  Roger will present an attitude much more upbeat and I suspect we'll see the same from his players. Run and gun will require athleticism.  I expect to see a bunch of Ibra Bayu types who hopefully can shoot just a little better!

[wh]

All I'm looking for is something I didn't have in the Lottich era for a long time: Hope. The W-L record can be similar this year but as long as there is hope as in clear signs of the team improving and taking on a vision and an identity--a lasting identity that sticks (something Lottich never had) it won't be a failure. We need to remember that we were at the point where Lottich's performance every year was such a failure that we weren't even considering it a failure anymore. At the point Lottich left us in virtually nothing Powell does in year one can be a failure. It's a total free roll for him.

This captures my feelings pretty well. We talk about something being reduced to "a pile of rubble." I'm not sure but what that understates the mess that Roger inherited.  Even a pile of rubble might have a usable cornerstone or 2 somewhere underneath. We have none - (1) no returning players to build from, (2) no established recruiting network, (3) program standing and reputation destroyed, (4) inferior facilities, (5) lack of proven institutional support, (6) committed fan/student support destroyed, (7) local press coverage/visibility dead. If, by the the end of next season, we witness identifiable improvement in all of indicators 1-6, that will meet my definition of first year success.

[VUGrad1314]

I think the biggest thing Roger can do is show us that he has a clue of what he's doing X's and O's wise on the sidelines. We never got that indication from Lottich and it was a persistent question before it became obvious. Do that and we'll know we're in good hands and that the future is secure. That alone will make the first year a success him showing competency (and I am more than confident that he will) as a coach and as a leader which strikes me as a strong suit of his given how he speaks is the most important factor in giving fans the hope I spoke about in my earlier post. As frustrating as it is that we don't have any new players to look forward to yet I just know he'll find the right fits and show right away what a strong coaching acumen he possesses. 

[wh]

I think the biggest thing Roger can do is show us that he has a clue of what he's doing X's and O's wise on the sidelines. We never got that indication from Lottich and it was a persistent question before it became obvious. Do that and we'll know we're in good hands and that the future is secure. That alone will make the first year a success him showing competency (and I am more than confident that he will) as a coach and as a leader which strikes me as a strong suit of his given how he speaks is the most important factor in giving fans the hope I spoke about in my earlier post. As frustrating as it is that we don't have any new players to look forward to yet I just know he'll find the right fits and show right away what a strong coaching acumen he possesses. 

This too!

[valpo64]

I will be disappointed if Coach Powell makes any references to "Beacons of Light" and/or the therapy dogs

[Just Sayin]

I will be disappointed if Coach Powell makes any references to "Beacons of Light" and/or the therapy dogs

https://twitter.com/rogerpowelljr/status/1651950374075367424?s=61&t=rvVIRCc0Iy1MgHjjNd30UA

[Just Sayin]

Apparently no one listened to athlete mentioned in my OP.  Here it is:

https://twitter.com/olympics/status/1651609569855000577?s=61&t=rvVIRCc0Iy1MgHjjNd30UA

[wh]

I will be disappointed if Coach Powell makes any references to "Beacons of Light" and/or the therapy dogs

Yes, it's a dumb name, but let's not lose sight of those who invented the "Crusader problem' - juveniles dressed up as adult educators, stirring up easily influenced, eager-to-please children to participate in one of their "go woke, go broke" self-gratification activities.

[David81]

The only way it could be a "horrible" year for me is if we see warning signs that the hiring of Coach Powell was a mistake from a standpoint of competence or character. I highly, highly doubt that will occur.

Otherwise, we may have a rough sense of the likely ceiling for this team based on a look at the roster and its performance in the early games. We all have to be ready for the possibility that the 23-24 team will have a worse W-L record than the 22-23 team. After all, VU will be putting the equivalent of an expansion team on the floor.

If the 23-24 season produces a handful of players who can become part of a winning roster during seasons to come and a team that plays a fun, exciting, competitive brand of basketball, then it will be a success. Anything above .500 makes Coach Powell MVC Coach of the Year material.

[justducky]

We have good coaches and a team to be named later. With that as my starting point I'm predicting more MVC wins in 2023-24 than 22-23. Failure will be 5 or fewer Valley wins.  I know that might sound a little crazy but as a Valpo fan I have never been quite right.

[humbleopinion]

I expect to see a bunch of Ibra Bayu types who hopefully can shoot just a little better!

One of my thoughts for success would be if The Rev would be able to help Ibra control his emotions, so his behavior won't be a liability.

[crusader05]

To bring it a bit more to the topic of Giannis's answer which is to not sum up the essence of a career or a reason based on "winning it all" etc.  I think it will be a challenge, and a good one, for us as fans to not treat it like we are owed immediate tournament wins and berths, or even to act like that's the only true sign of saying we have built a successful program in the first 5 years. I would say it's hard to say having a bad or horrible year (however you choose to define it) wouldn't be a failure for Powell unless he does not learn from it or we don't build from it eventually. I do think we may need to temper expectations and not expected Roger to get us to pre-lottich levels even 2-3 years out.  But, it's in a lot of people's nature to look or revel in the negative. I have fellow alums who seemed to love to express their frustration with Lottich and all the ways the admin messed up who have hardly acknowledged Powell's hiring which makes me think they liked being mad at Valpo basketball more than they liked Valpo Basketball. If the only way you can think your team is successful is if its' giving you the adrenaline rush from winning constantly that's a recipe for looking for failure.
I can even see it hear a bit. A whole lot of energy about the search and excitement but always those occasional posts about why is it taking so long for staff. someone must have turned us down, why don't we have more recruits, we have nothing good left...etc etc. Sometimes being angry about losing can be just as difficult of a mindset to shake and can lead you to start to see failure lurking around every corner and read every thing as proof we are bad at X.

[VU2014]

No. As long as he develops young talent. Establishes the culture and style of play it could still be a "successful" season.

This is definitely not going to be an overnight fix.

[historyman]

All I'm looking for is something I didn't have in the Lottich era for a long time: Hope. The W-L record can be similar this year but as long as there is hope as in clear signs of the team improving and taking on a vision and an identity--a lasting identity that sticks (something Lottich never had) it won't be a failure. We need to remember that we were at the point where Lottich's performance every year was such a failure that we weren't even considering it a failure anymore. At the point Lottich left us in virtually nothing Powell does in year one can be a failure. It's a total free roll for him.

This captures my feelings pretty well. We talk about something being reduced to "a pile of rubble." I'm not sure but what that understates the mess that Roger inherited.  Even a pile of rubble might have a usable cornerstone or 2 somewhere underneath. We have none - (1) no returning players to build from, (2) no established recruiting network, (3) program standing and reputation destroyed, (4) inferior facilities, (5) lack of proven institutional support, (6) committed fan/student support destroyed, (7) local press coverage/visibility dead. If, by the the end of next season, we witness identifiable improvement in all of indicators 1-6, that will meet my definition of first year success.

It is reality but that is really, really depressing.

[chgovalpofan]

Failure should not be defined just by wins and losses.  If the product on the floor isn't as talented as the other teams, you expect the players to be positioned to be as successful as their talent allows.  Did they get open shots? Fight for rebounds?  Does the offensive system give them the best opportunities?  I did not lcare for Lottichs systems.  They were ineffective and  I think the team was frustrated with that ineffectiveness.

I would hope by year two we see a huge improvement over next year.  And again the year after.  That's the dream.

This will hopefully be a start of a new era for Valpo basketball.

[AlaskaCrusader19]

I think it's going to be pretty difficult to call the first season a "failure." Valpo didn't fire Matt Lottich because the program was heading in a good direction. The transfer portal only exasperates this issue, as now he's left to fill the majority of a roster. To expect anything more than finishing towards the bottom of the league would be misguided, but we all can hope that at bare minimum, we see signs of really positive things to come.

[JD24]

It's going to be tough for this year to be successful from a competitive standpoint. We're only 7 players away from having a solid 7 man rotation.

That's going to be tough to change over the next many weeks.

I have faith that the program will begin to move forward but the roster is essentially empty at this point.

[justducky]

We're only 7 players away from having a solid 7 man rotation.

Very true, but Roger is not yet just signing bodies to fill out the 23-24 roster. We will have a team this year and the fewer one year fill ins the better.

[valpo64]

So far I like His approach for completing the roster.  My impression is that he isn't just signing anybody to get numbers but being selective in giving out offers...a good long-range approach.