2023-24 Men's Basketball Season - General

[historyman]

Still early October.  Knowns: we have Roger Powell, three returning players, nine new scholarship players.  Unknowns: how this team will gel with new coaching staff, nine new players, season expectations. 

Massey has us at 236 and expected record of 13-18 (7-13 MVC); T-Rank has us at 346 and 8-23 (3-17); TeamRankings has us at 273 and 11-20 (5-15).

I hope that we play up tempo, are defensively challenging to our opponents, improve throughout the year, and are competitive in last 10 minutes of home games.  I'd like to see a 15% improvement of attendance over last year.  I'd really like to surprise MVC people with at least 8 wins and more than one game at Arch Madness.  I can see us flirting with being a top 200 team by Arch Madness.  Sign an impact HS recruit for 2025.

OR the Beacons might have very close to the same record as last season and still be able to call it a victory if this young team starts to play jell at the end of the conference season and surprise 1 or 2 of the top conference teams.

[JD24]

The biggest issue for recent Valpo teams for me, particularly last year, was too many games in which there was a non-competitive early part of the game and to teams this should not have happened against. I may be mis-remembering some of the details but it definitely fell into the "not ready to play" description.

This year's squad may be outmanned but I suspect they will be ready to go when the ref tosses up the ball for the opening tip.

[rogerwilco]

The KenPom rankings are out and Valpo comes in at #324.

[VULB#62]

Ya know, there is so, so, so much we still don't know about our new team and coach. That got me thinking about a basic need to draw some sort of comparison to past teams/players for context to our expectations.  I do not have the personal experience of watching a decade of Valpo teams and players in person, but members of this forum have.

So......here's a challenge to those who have lived intimately with our program over the last decade. To the best of your ability, would you try to draw some comparisons to past players and our current team composition. Granted, there currently is no obvious AP or Rowdie in the mix (yet) but I'll bet that there are some parallels that could be drawn.

If nothing more, this could be a fun exercise 

[tiny707]

Evansville coming in at 332 on Ken Pom.

[historyman]

Ya know, there is so, so, so much we still don't know about our new team and coach. That got me thinking about a basic need to draw some sort of comparison to past teams/players for context to our expectations.  I do not have the personal experience of watching a decade of Valpo teams and players in person, but members of this forum have.

So......here's a challenge to those who have lived intimately with our program over the last decade. To the best of your ability, would you try to draw some comparisons to past players and our current team composition. Granted, there currently is no obvious AP or Rowdie in the mix (yet) but I'll bet that there are some parallels that could be drawn.

If nothing more, this could be a fun exercise 

Really I can't envision any parallels. These guys are the most unique group ever brought to Valpo.  :-)



You're welcome.

[vu72]

I can't possibly compare these guys to other players until I've seen them play some games.  What I do expect is that scoring will increase dramatically.  Over the last five years we have averaged scoring as low as 65.0 and as high as 72.3.  At the same time our 3 point shooting has been as low as 29.6%.  I think this run and gun offense will hopefully free up guys for better shots and a lot more scoring. Whether or not we will be able to also keep our opponents to lower scoring--than us--remains to be seen. 

I would also expect more shot blocking with some of the size and athleticism brought in.

[vu84v2]

I am not at all surprised by the rankings. Poor performance last year, new coach, few returning players, new players are not highly ranked as recruits. Any analysis just stops there.

In terms of unknown, the one parallel I can think of is the 1998-1999 team. A different era in terms of advanced knowledge on players recruited, etc. Team had lost Drew, Sykes, two Jenkins, and Vilcinskas. Went to see them in their first two games at the Hoosier Dome and knew absolutely nothing about Barton, Stovall, Tonagel and Vujic. What a pleasant surprise those two games were!

However, such a pleasant surprise is clearly not likely or realistic this season. What do I expect and what would I like to see? (I do not think these are dramatically different) First and foremost, I believe Coach Powell will demand a clear set of on-court values - play hard, pressure defensively - or you don't play. Offense is much harder to develop quickly...what is the system and how fast can you develop multiple options on each possession?  how do you adapt to an opponent's defense as a team? who do you go to on possessions that stall? Thus, I expect the offense to lag the defense. I expect that the team will be "high variance" - some games competing strongly against top conference and non-conference opponents, other games they will not look good. This is not bad, this is part of development - which is what Valpo needs. The key things to look at will not be wins and losses as much as "is there a repeatable system being developed?", "are players developing?", and "are the players bonding - looked for the greater good as a team rather than individual accomplishment?". Some interesting additional metrics would be: number of deflections per game, number of field goals preceded by two or more passes.

Please don't misread my comments...I am very optimistic about Coach Powell. Great leader with high expectations. It is just going to take some time to instill his system with the right players.

[tjjvalpo]

I would agree that 98/99 team is the best comparison. We had a lot of unknowns going into that season.

[JD24]

.I am very optimistic about Coach Powell. Great leader with high expectations. It is just going to take some time to instill his system with the right players.

Which could or maybe will include scrapping many of the guys on the current roster out for better fits once the fit is identified.

[vu84v2]

.I am very optimistic about Coach Powell. Great leader with high expectations. It is just going to take some time to instill his system with the right players.

Which could or maybe will include scrapping many of the guys on the current roster out for better fits once the fit is identified.

But each one of those players on the current roster also has the opportunity to be one of those guys who excels and fits Coach Powell's system.

[wh]

I'll let Audioslave speak on my behalf:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=lBFdX37Qpnk&si=aeabz0V_0CrGfJgj

[covufan]

In terms of unknown, the one parallel I can think of is the 1998-1999 team. A different era in terms of advanced knowledge on players recruited, etc. Team had lost Drew, Sykes, two Jenkins, and Vilcinskas. Went to see them in their first two games at the Hoosier Dome and knew absolutely nothing about Barton, Stovall, Tonagel and Vujic. What a pleasant surprise those two games were!

I remember this as well!  That '98 team was competitive and we lost a great chunk of that team. Wasn't sure about the recruiting, and we were playing two good teams in Indy. That team played well those games, and continued the Mid-Continent Conference dominance and went dancing! 

I feel similarly about this team.

I look forward to up tempo play. I don't consider a good up tempo play with run and gun, especially Loyola MaryMount of early 90's. If we are 9-11 deep, push that tempo until they puke


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VULB#62]

I look forward to up tempo play. I don't consider a good up tempo play with run and gun, especially Loyola MaryMount of early 90's. If we are 9-11 deep, push that tempo until they puke.

I assume the "they" refers to our opponents 😜

Actually, why should we take the foot off the pedal just because they up-chucked*?


* Question:  should Valpo provide a Home Depot-sponsored empty 5 gallon bucket by the visitor bench?

[JD24]

In terms of unknown, the one parallel I can think of is the 1998-1999 team. A different era in terms of advanced knowledge on players recruited, etc. Team had lost Drew, Sykes, two Jenkins, and Vilcinskas. Went to see them in their first two games at the Hoosier Dome and knew absolutely nothing about Barton, Stovall, Tonagel and Vujic. What a pleasant surprise those two games were!

I remember this as well!  That '98 team was competitive and we lost a great chunk of that team. Wasn't sure about the recruiting, and we were playing two good teams in Indy. That team played well those games, and continued the Mid-Continent Conference dominance and went dancing! I feel similarly about this team. I look forward to up tempo play. I don't consider a good up tempo play with run and gun, especially Loyola MaryMount of early 90's. If we are 9-11 deep, push that tempo until they puke Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LMU didn't play any defense and basically acknowledge that they weren't playing any defense. I don't think this will be the case with Valpo at all. Likely anyone on the court not harassing is going to be off the court quickly. I'm hoping for much closer to Nolan Richardson than Paul Westhead.

[wh]

Based on a quick count, 1079 season tickets have been purchased to date (693 chairbacks + 386 bleachers). I don't know if that's good, bad, or otherwise. Just information in case someone's interested.

[cornonthe]

In terms of unknown, the one parallel I can think of is the 1998-1999 team. A different era in terms of advanced knowledge on players recruited, etc. Team had lost Drew, Sykes, two Jenkins, and Vilcinskas. Went to see them in their first two games at the Hoosier Dome and knew absolutely nothing about Barton, Stovall, Tonagel and Vujic. What a pleasant surprise those two games were!

I remember this as well!  That '98 team was competitive and we lost a great chunk of that team. Wasn't sure about the recruiting, and we were playing two good teams in Indy. That team played well those games, and continued the Mid-Continent Conference dominance and went dancing! I feel similarly about this team. I look forward to up tempo play. I don't consider a good up tempo play with run and gun, especially Loyola MaryMount of early 90's. If we are 9-11 deep, push that tempo until they puke Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LMU didn't play any defense and basically acknowledge that they weren't playing any defense. I don't think this will be the case with Valpo at all. Likely anyone on the court not harassing is going to be off the court quickly. I'm hoping for much closer to Nolan Richardson than Paul Westhead.

This isn't exactly true...what Paul Westhead admitted to was that once the opposition made it past half court, they weren't playing defense anymore...but they did play defense in a half court scheme, just not the way most do it. In other words, they were trying to get a turnover on every possession...

[wh]

Great Victory Bell recap of Roger's powerful comments at MVC Media Day. I don't know if there's anyone left on the board that hasn't subscribed, but if so, just a gentle reminder that Paul is not only an excellent sports writer who pours himself into his work, he is our only news connection to Valpo athletics.

[covufan]

I look forward to up tempo play. I don't consider a good up tempo play with run and gun, especially Loyola MaryMount of early 90's. If we are 9-11 deep, push that tempo until they puke.

I assume the "they" refers to our opponents 😜

Actually, why should we take the foot off the pedal just because they up-chucked*?


* Question:  should Valpo provide a Home Depot-sponsored empty 5 gallon bucket by the visitor bench?

If we are not in shape, then both!

[vu84v2]

I do not see Roger Powell running Paul Westhead's "system", but do see him emphasizing pressure defense (like Nolan Richardson or Shaka Smart). But if you want more information on Westhead's "system", check out "The Guru of Go" in ESPN's 30 for 30 package or search Youtube for LMU's games in the late 80s. Suffice it to say, one record that is unlikely to ever be broken is LMU's 149 points in a regulation NCAA tournament game against Michigan.

[wh]

Preseason doubters create 'a great opportunity' for Valparaiso

https://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/valparaiso-beacons-mens-basketball-roger-powell-jr-mvc-missouri-valley-conference-darius-deaveiro/article_2a252f7c-6d20-11ee-b6fb-53d0cfc7aa8e.html#tracking-source=mp-sports

[usc4valpo]

Bo Kimble and Hank Gathers.

[vu84v2]

Bo Kimble and Hank Gathers.

Jeff Fryer still holds the record for three-pointers in an NCAA tournament game (11)

[wh]

This article about Gonzaga takes a lot of guesswork out of what Valpo's playing style will be.
• Play at a frenetic pace offensively.
• Maximize your number of offensive possessions.
• Wear your opponent down physically.
• Run them in the ground.

Here's the strategic shift that made Gonzaga upset-proof

https://sports.yahoo.com/gonzaga-basketball-transition-offense-tempo-march-madness-191427696.html

[David81]

I've used the term expansion team to describe the 23-24 roster, and I'll stick to it.

My realistic fantasy scenario is that the regular season W-L record is so-so at best, but that the team starts to gel during the 2nd half of the MVC schedule and then stages a surprise or two at Arch Madness, thus creating a lot of momentum going into 24-25.

All of this is based on a belief that Coach Powell had a sharp eye for the kinds of players he wanted to start rebuilding this program, not on any amateur talent assessment on my part.