12/7/2011: IPFW

[crusaderjoe]

Mark Lazerus says IPFW (and any other non-conference game) means nothing:

http://blogs.post-trib.com/lazerus/2011/12/valparaiso-ipfw-post-mortem.html

If these games mean nothing, then why play them?  I understand what he is saying but I am not sure I entirely agree with his remarks in general.  From a technical standpoint it is possible that RPI can be used as an HL tournament seeding tiebreaker as an absolute failsafe, so these types of losses do not help because this was a winnable game on the road.  These games do mean "something", IMO.

[zvillehaze]

I totally disagree with Lazerus on this one.  These games "should" matter, especially since Valpo entered last night's game with only 2 road losses to nationally ranked teams.  Not sure why he had already written off at-large hopes.  I'd expect teams in the Mid-Con to have that attitude ... don't expect it from teams who expect to contend for the Horizon League title.

[justducky]

Lazerus points out what should have been obvious. I for one never had any hope for an NCAA at-large bid, and a NIT at large would now probably require us to sweep the remaining non conferance plus bracketbuster plus be 13-5 or better in the Horizon. I would think that either a CIT or CBI  bid would be available if we both want and can afford it so lets just focus in on 2 things-- team and individual play development and Horizon League play.

I think if it were up to me  that I might start Vucic and Kurth in 3 out of our 4 next games because if we get Boggs their playing time might all but disappear when League play begins. If by doing this we dig ourselves a hole from which the rest of the team must emerge then good. On paper Bowling Green, IUPUI, and Northern Illinois are all teams that we should be able to spot 10 points to and win; and if we can't - then why should we even be thinking post season.

The big picture is next season, lets not get distracted and completely lose that larger focus. If we can be first in conferance this year (with its NIT bid) or win the HL tourney then that is just some extra gravy.

[valporun]

I'm honestly not even thinking about any postseason games. Right now, we have some holes that need to be fixed, some eligibility issues that need answered, and to just win our game against Bowling Green. If we can't get answers, or right the wrongs of our first four minutes of the second half of every game, then what does any postseason hope matter because we'll continue to ask why the guys can't get anything going to win the games we're supposed to win, whether out-of-conference or in conference. We just need to answer those things, and win games. The NCAA/NIT/CBI/CIT are the least of my concerns as a fan.

[valpotx]

Definitely disagree as well.  To basically say that if we won all of our games outside of conference, that it would not matter, is completely false.  We could win all our non-conference games, finish 1st in regular season, but lose in the championship game.  I imagine we would have been an at-large in such a circumstance, as long as we had 2-4 losses in conference for a maximum of 5-6 losses in a year. To completely write off our chances of getting an at-large bid in any year, regardless of 'standing' in the basketball committee, is a reckless statement.  I understand he is saying we should just win the thing to build up the program again, but don't discount the out of conference schedule to do so.

[FWalum]

As long as you expect for something not to happen it will in most cases be a self fulfilling prophecy.  Nothing is ever set in stone, not next year or next month, next week or even tomorrow. No coach would ever say at this point of the season "well boys, we have no shot at an at large so lets not worry about those pesky out of conference games".  Most great teams are one torn ACL or a point guard's high ankle sprain away from mediocrity.  It is likely that Boggs will play at the break and almost certain that Fernandez and Jakolis will not be eligible this year. This team can make some hay this year so let's not set the bar so low. Other than last night I have liked what I have seen from this team and coaching staff.  Go Valpo!

[Valpo2010]

My only hope is that the guys can put this game behind them quickly and put their focus on BG.

[dylanrocks]

I totally disagree with Lazerus on this one.  These games "should" matter, especially since Valpo entered last night's game with only 2 road losses to nationally ranked teams.  Not sure why he had already written off at-large hopes.  I'd expect teams in the Mid-Con to have that attitude ... don't expect it from teams who expect to contend for the Horizon League title.

I swear that zvillehaze is not my nom de plume.

Non-conference games -- all of them, not just the ones against nationally-ranked teams -- matter for all of the following reasons and then some: recruiting, resume, profile/exposure, facilities improvement, travel budget, scheduling upgrades, casual fan interest and diehard fan sanity. They are certainly not "practice" games.

[valpo84]

The other reason these games count is what was discussed earlier: You had a big win against Butler on Saturday, you come back on Wednesday on the road against a team you should beat. You need to learn how to make the mental turnaround and come out and take control of a lesser opponent and its crowd. If we are a contender, we need to learn how to do that. You can also substitute a tough loss for a big win. This would be like beating Detroit at Detroit and then going to Wright State or beating CSU at Wolstein and then going to Penguin Palace this year and not playing to potential. You might get the big win and then lose the winnable game. Scheduling has a purpose and a lesson.

[bbtds]

I have never before seen them have a video interview with the coach of an upcoming game.

I did see a crew from WANE in Ft. Wayne at the Valpo/Butler game and was wondering what they were doing there.

[milanmiracle]

At this time, for this season, at this stage...Lazerus is right. These games don't matter because they don't get you any closer to the NCAA tournament. In the end, getting to the NCAA's is all that matters. 20 wins? Nice, but big deal. Regular season champs? Yawn. The only reason the conference season matters is to get a better seed to the automatic qualifier, and...you guessed it...a better shot at the NCAA's.

The reality is, Valpo isn't getting an at large bid, and unless they managed to beat Ohio State or Arizona they weren't getting an at large bid anyway. Well, if they went undefeated the rest of the way they might but the likelyhood of that was nil.

Without saying it, Lazerus told us what many people already think...The NCAA tournament is the only thing that really matters in college basketball.

[StlVUFan]

I agree with Lazerus completely and with this: http://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/valparaiso-university/ipfw-the-morning-after/article_be08ced8-21ec-11e1-a66a-0019bb2963f4.html

Nobody's saying it means nothing.  They're saying it doesn't mean a whole lot, and they're right.  It is a bad loss and it reveals that they aren't quite as good as maybe we thought they were, but come March the only possible impact this will have is on seeding in the NCAA tournament should Valpo somehow manage to pull that off.  It might impact the choice of Valpo for NIT/CBI/CIT I suppose, but there is still plenty of time to rectify that and render this game meaningless.

[FWalum]

At this time, for this season, at this stage...Lazerus is right. These games don't matter because they don't get you any closer to the NCAA tournament. In the end, getting to the NCAA's is all that matters. 20 wins? Nice, but big deal. Regular season champs? Yawn. The only reason the conference season matters is to get a better seed to the automatic qualifier, and...you guessed it...a better shot at the NCAA's.

The reality is, Valpo isn't getting an at large bid, and unless they managed to beat Ohio State or Arizona they weren't getting an at large bid anyway. Well, if they went undefeated the rest of the way they might but the likelyhood of that was nil.

Without saying it, Lazerus told us what many people already think...The NCAA tournament is the only thing that really matters in college basketball.

Intellectually I agree with you, but having that kind of attitude in sports IMHO is a killer.

[crusaderjoe]

If anyone is interested, here is Mark Lazerus' backpedal, um I mean, clarification (yeah that's it) on his commentary from yesterday:

http://blogs.post-trib.com/lazerus/2011/12/valparaiso-ipfw-post-mortem.html

First stating that non conference games mean nothing because no loss outside of conference is devastating and then stating that conference games are really the only ones that really count are two different things in their entirety and are not mutually exclusive of one another in the context of an entire basketball season, IMO.

Lock that BGSU thread boys...it's irrelevant.

[covufan]

Should we have won?  Most likely.  Did IPFW play well enough to win?  Yes.  Did we do enough on defense or offense to deserve to win?  No. 

We now have seven games against Division I opponents.  Before the season started, with away games against Arizona, Ohio St., Georgia Southern, Butler and IPFW, and home games with Akron and Duquesne (Good conference and team RPIs), how many would have thought that we'd be better than 4-3.  We still have a good chance of going 7-1 in December, and will most likely have a much better season than most projected. 

[valpotx]

I think it is hilarious when a message board is mentioned in a newspaper .  I will again state that I would not have whined about a 2-for-1 with Butler years ago when we were in the Mid-Con, and don't think IPFW would/should whine about such an arrangement in the future.  I doubt Bryce would do this arrangement (2-1), but I think it is more deserved than ML is indicating.  Yes, they have won 3 of the last 4, but that does not mean they are on par with our program or HL teams.  Do we do home and aways with every team and risk losing to teams every other year that are 200-300 in rpi just because they shoot lights out in their own gym on a fluke??

[covufan]

I think we should keep the IPFW series as 1 and 1.  The series has been good, although more good for IPFW the last few years.  It gives VU a chance to play a game in December, without much travel.  It also gives the families of IN/MI/OH players a chance to see VU on the road. 

[vu72]

So we get to the NCAAs via the Horizon and not an At-Large bid.  So, do these losses mean anything?  Of course they do--in seeding.  If we have several losses to the IPFWs of the world the Horizon title will seem like a fluke and we get??  A 14 or 15 and almost certain death in the first round.  Win all those games we are suppose to and then?  Maybe a 10.  Huge difference that Mr. Lazerus overlooked.

[zvillehaze]

I don't agree with Lazerus, but it seems like most Valpo fans do, so I should probably just go away. 

However, here's the part I don't understand.  Had Valpo won at IPFW, they would have been 7-2 (6-2 non-con and 1-0 league).  Personally, I think winning that game was very important ... not totally meaningless.  If I were a Valpo fan, I'd be ticked that Lazerus is 100% certain that Valpo would have no chance for at-large consideration after a 7-2 start (which is why he said the game was meaningless).  That's insulting to your program, but sadly, is largely accepted as the truth.

As FWalum pointed out, this attitude becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.  If a program believes they can't earn an at-large bid, then I'm pretty sure they never will.

[zvillehaze]

 

So we get to the NCAAs via the Horizon and not an At-Large bid.  So, do these losses mean anything?  Of course they do--in seeding.  If we have several losses to the IPFWs of the world the Horizon title will seem like a fluke and we get??  A 14 or 15 and almost certain death in the first round.  Win all those games we are suppose to and then?  Maybe a 10.  Huge difference that Mr. Lazerus overlooked.

[valpofan56]

So we get to the NCAAs via the Horizon and not an At-Large bid.  So, do these losses mean anything?  Of course they do--in seeding.  If we have several losses to the IPFWs of the world the Horizon title will seem like a fluke and we get??  A 14 or 15 and almost certain death in the first round.  Win all those games we are suppose to and then?  Maybe a 10.  Huge difference that Mr. Lazerus overlooked.

Holy cow! '72 and zville are in agreement about something. What's going on?

[valporun]

So we get to the NCAAs via the Horizon and not an At-Large bid.  So, do these losses mean anything?  Of course they do--in seeding.  If we have several losses to the IPFWs of the world the Horizon title will seem like a fluke and we get??  A 14 or 15 and almost certain death in the first round.  Win all those games we are suppose to and then?  Maybe a 10.  Huge difference that Mr. Lazerus overlooked.

Holy cow! '72 and zville are in agreement about something. What's going on?

Are the temperatures where 72 and zville live below 10 degrees above zero?

[jack]

I think those that suggest this game meant nothing aren't seeing the big picture here. Would the W have been that season changing? No. Was the loss a season changer? Could be, for the better I hope. To tag that game as a "fluke" win for IPFW, is to cheat them out of the cudo's they deserve for coming to play, and to give us far more credit then we deserve in a lossing cause. The coaching staff has a great opportunity to look at this game, and impress upon their players, that you can't take any opponent lightly, and they'd better be giving 100% each and every time they hit the floor. Did they shoot lights out? Sure, but we allowed them to. Our D was less then average that evening. Something we need to work on. That game revealed some things we'd better be working on, or a future opponent could take a look at film and exploit the same weaknesses. That's all I'll say about that. I happen to be in the minority on this it seems, but I feel the L meant more to our program then the W would have, IF we react to it as we should.
I guess I'm old school but, every game means something. 

[StlVUFan]

Once again.  Nobody is saying it means *nothing*.  We're saying it's not the end of the world.

You need a high profile *win* to get an at-large bid.  Unless I've missed something, there aren't any of those left on our schedule, and there weren't any left when we went to Ft. Wayne.

Of course it could affect seeding in the Big Dance.  I'm far more concerned about making the Big Dance in the first place.  A seldom used tiebreaker (RPI) could make a difference in seeding in the HL tournament.  It has hovered in the air in late February before, but has never actually been used since Valpo joined the conference (unless it actually was used last year -- I know it was out there right to the end).

[jack]

Comment like:   
"These games don't matter" are what I'm refering to. I'm surprised anyone is talking about NCAA tournament seeding right now. EVERY team is an injury or two from even getting an invite. It should be a goal of every team to get to the big dance, but talking about seeding, even in the conference tourney, in my opinion, is far too premature, and counterproductive. Let's get better, learn from our losses, and give 100% every time we hit the floor, and the other things will take care of themselves.