The burning question

[DMvalpo18]

A serious question for you guys. What do you honestly think about Valpo's chances at winning the Horizon this year? It seems like our season has already been roller coaster and it is only half way through so far.

[sectionee]

The way we have played so far I'd say no. It is not a good sign when the team hasn't shown improved, or even stagnant, level of play. I'm not writing us off because of how we have seen them play in the past.  HL is wide open with any team capable of beating any other on any given night.

[valpopal]

Not a burning question for me. I've said all along that this team is targeted to next year since no scholarship players are graduating and we get more inside help with the players sitting out this year, plus our head coach will have a year of experience as well. If Valpo were to win this year, it would be a shock. That is why I don't get too irritated when we lose close games we should win this season, like those against Oakland and Milwaukee.

I'm hoping each game this year is a learning experience that will pay off next season, and I view anything more, like the win against Butler or the possibility of being competitive and having a chance in the league tournament, simply as a bonus.

[vu84v2]

I've seen stranger turnarounds (heck...consider Milwaukee and even Butler last year), but this team has little or no chance to win the conference.  While the effort is there, there is just not enough talent on this team.  On offense, there are really no consistent "go to" guys (I like Broekhoff and Van Wijk, but neither can create on their own) and the offense seems to really sputter if Buggs is not on the floor (and he gets in foul trouble way too much).  It is a pleasant surprise when the transfers play well - but far more is needed from them to compete.  Interior defense is weak.

[milanmiracle]

I just don't see much chance, if any for a title this year. They have parts that are decent, but nothing that really makes you take notice. Broekhoff is the best player on the team, and likely an all conference player, but he struggles to get his own shot. I think he's capable of it, but maybe just needs pushed in that direction a little more? Collin Falls from Notre Dame had the same issue until about halfway through his senior year.

Otherwise this group is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get. Unfortunately, there's not enough consistency to be good night in night out and that's what you need win the conference.

[vu72]

I've seen stranger turnarounds (heck...consider Milwaukee and even Butler last year), but this team has little or no chance to win the conference.  While the effort is there, there is just not enough talent on this team.  On offense, there are really no consistent "go to" guys (I like Broekhoff and Van Wijk, but neither can create on their own) and the offense seems to really sputter if Buggs is not on the floor (and he gets in foul trouble way too much).  It is a pleasant surprise when the transfers play well - but far more is needed from them to compete.  Interior defense is weak.

Glad to hear you "like" Broekhoff, as he is probably the best player in the conference, from an all around game standpoint. If not I'd like to hear the arguments favoring someone else.  As for not creating his on shot, maybe you haven't noticed his driving through the lane.  He is a mismatch for virtually anyone of his size.  He has taken 137 shots in 14 games, making 48.9%, and if you remove the 3 pt trys, he is hitting 66% from inside the 3 line.  Now, let's take a look at the two guys who have a higher scoring average than Ryan (not by much): Kendrick Perry from YSU leads the league and has taken 141 shots and is making 37.6% overall.  Chase Simon is next, shooting 197 times in 15 games, and making 38.6%.

So Ryan takes fewer shots and scores at a higher percentage.  Seeing that he isn't tearing it up from the 3 means those baskets are inside and "created" by him.  They aren't layups like for the most part, the kind of baskets kevin is making.

He's the best player in the League.  Not bad in my opinion.  I agree on the need to be more consistent and to get more from the transfers.  I just don't know how much more Ryan can do on his own.

[DMvalpo18]

I've seen stranger turnarounds (heck...consider Milwaukee and even Butler last year), but this team has little or no chance to win the conference.  While the effort is there, there is just not enough talent on this team.  On offense, there are really no consistent "go to" guys (I like Broekhoff and Van Wijk, but neither can create on their own) and the offense seems to really sputter if Buggs is not on the floor (and he gets in foul trouble way too much).  It is a pleasant surprise when the transfers play well - but far more is needed from them to compete.  Interior defense is weak.

Glad to hear you "like" Broekhoff, as he is probably the best player in the conference, from an all around game standpoint. If not I'd like to hear the arguments favoring someone else.  As for not creating his on shot, maybe you haven't noticed his driving through the lane.  He is a mismatch for virtually anyone of his size.  He has taken 137 shots in 14 games, making 48.9%, and if you remove the 3 pt trys, he is hitting 66% from inside the 3 line.  Now, let's take a look at the two guys who have a higher scoring average than Ryan (not by much): Kendrick Perry from YSU leads the league and has taken 141 shots and is making 37.6% overall.  Chase Simon is next, shooting 197 times in 15 games, and making 38.6%.

So Ryan takes fewer shots and scores at a higher percentage.  Seeing that he isn't tearing it up from the 3 means those baskets are inside and "created" by him.  They aren't layups like for the most part, the kind of baskets kevin is making.

He's the best player in the League.  Not bad in my opinion.  I agree on the need to be more consistent and to get more from the transfers.  I just don't know how much more Ryan can do on his own.

I suppose all we can ask more of from Ryan is for him to make some more threes. His first two years i remember him being a better three point shooter than what he is shooting this year. Otherwise, i completely agree. He is a total mismatch for anybody in the league. It's great that this year he is not forced to be playing the 4, which will automatically lead to limiting him because he is out of his natural position.

[vu72]

Ryan's career stats:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/valparaiso/ryan-broekhoff

[Crusader03]

Yes, they can win the Horizon.  It's hard to determine what the odds are, but I feel completely confident they could get hot and win 2-4 games in the tourney.   I'd say they have a 40% (or so) chance of winning the tourney.  Considering that they probably won't have a bye and they are super inconsistent, I can't put them at better odds.  But they will be a team no one wants to play.They beat Butler, Akron and Duquesne.  Those teams would easily be in the top 5-6 teams in our league (Butler is in the HL of course).  So, can they beat a string of say, Loyola, Milwaukee, Cleveland State and Butler?  Of course.  Will they?  It all depends on what wave they are riding that week.

[sectionee]

Ask Crusader and you will receive. KenPom simulated it 10,000 times and here are the results. 
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/2012_conference_previews_part_4/

[valpopal]

Ask Crusader and you will receive. KenPom simulated it 10,000 times and here are the results. 
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/2012_conference_previews_part_4/

So, after only one conference game (last night's games were not included) that we won, Pomeroy indicates Valpo has only a 4% chance of winning the conference championship. I said I'd be shocked if Valpo won, but I'd have thought the 4% chance a little low. On the other hand, in the league tournament any team can get hot or have injuries to major players, so the odds might be a bit higher there.

[covufan]

Ask Crusader and you will receive. KenPom simulated it 10,000 times and here are the results. 
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/2012_conference_previews_part_4/

So, after only one conference game (last night's games were not included) that we won, Pomeroy indicates Valpo has only a 4% chance of winning the conference championship. I said I'd be shocked if Valpo won, but I'd have thought the 4% chance a little low. On the other hand, in the league tournament any team can get hot or have injuries to major players, so the odds might be a bit higher there.

Teamrankings.com also puts us at 4% for the HL championship - regular season: http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections

This is after last nights game.