2/9/12, 6pm: Valpo @ Cleveland State Game Thread

[vuweathernerd]

i don't see us winning at csu either. yeah, we caused them matchup problems before. but pogue has improved his play of late, and playing at their place means they're gonna get away with far more than they would on the road.

csu wins thursday 72-67.
valpo trumps ysu saturday 77-65.

[valpo84]

By the way I think CSU has their bracketbuster sandwiched between the Wisconsin trips, which means two long road trips. Looks like our schedule from last year. (If I am remembering correctly). But agree, CSU has been the most difficult place for us to play at since returning to the Horizon. It seems like we start way too sluggishly and suddenly are down 8-10 and always climbing the hill. We need a fast start to begin both halves.

CSU is riding high, but maybe they'll look past us for Butler and the 11 am start on Saturday. (SI)

[sectionee]

I ran my PPS formula for the major players and both teams for Thursday, http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2012/02/pps-statistical-preview-for-thursday.html

As far as matchups, I think KVW is a definate mismatch.   I do think that Grady (he is pretty tall if I'm thinking of the right guy) can guard Rowdy.  I'll take Valpo 76-74 as long as they stay at or below 15 turnovers.

[valpopal]

I ran my PPS formula for the major players and both teams for Thursday, http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2012/02/pps-statistical-preview-for-thursday.html

As far as matchups, I think KVW is a definate mismatch.   I do think that Grady (he is pretty tall if I'm thinking of the right guy) can guard Rowdy.  I'll take Valpo 76-74 as long as they stay at or below 15 turnovers.

Grady is 6'8": though he stepped in for the injured Brown against UIC, he could be developing into the best sixth man in the league. He is 17-21 in field goals his last three games, during which he also twice had double-doubles. His play could be the deciding factor in this game.

[CSURyan]

Hey guys, Cleveland State fan here hoping to talk some basketball.  If you don't mind, I'm going to quote a few things I saw so far on this thread.  Feel free to ask any questions.

i don't see us winning at csu either. yeah, we caused them matchup problems before. but pogue has improved his play of late, and playing at their place means they're gonna get away with far more than they would on the road. csu wins thursday 72-67. valpo trumps ysu saturday 77-65.

Pogue was playing through a leg injury for much of the season.  He's just recently started to get healthy and his play has reflected that.  Even with that fact, he's never been a consistent player for us and he's still not a great defender (and he still gets in foul trouble).  With all that being said, I expect a better effort out of him this time around simply because he's healthy.  I also expect a different defensive game-plan than the box and one and constant fronting of Van Wijk that we saw last time.

Either way, your bigs definitely are a concern for us, as we don't have a good match-up for Broekhoff or Van Wijk defensively.

As I'm sure you know, D'Aundray Brown is our best defender and even at 6-4 he can usually go toe-to-toe with other team's power forwards.  The difference with Broekhoff is that he's able to play like a guard on the perimeter and his 6-7 length gives him the advantage.  I honestly think Brown would rather bang in the post against a 6-7 forward than play a player like Broekhoff on the outside.  Also, Brown was injured in the victory over Loyola and did not play at UIC.  He's questionable for this game and I would be surprised to see him play.  That would make us bigger because 6-8 Anton Grady would start (sliding 6-6 Tim Kamczyc from the 4 to the 3), but Grady isn't near the defender that Brown is and he's not as quick either.

[CSURyan]

I ran my PPS formula for the major players and both teams for Thursday, As far as matchups, I think KVW is a definate mismatch. I do think that Grady (he is pretty tall if I'm thinking of the right guy) can guard Rowdy. I'll take Valpo 76-74 as long as they stay at or below 15 turnovers.

Grady is 6'8": though he stepped in for the injured Brown against UIC, he could be developing into the best sixth man in the league. He is 17-21 in field goals his last three games, during which he also twice had double-doubles. His play could be the deciding factor in this game.

Grady has been playing great lately.  He can post up, hit the mid range jumper and drive past bigger defenders.  He's also our best rebounder and shot blocker.  He will be our best player next year and I truly believe he has the potential to be one of the top players in the Horizon League in the next two years.  I agree that he can be the deciding factor, but both ways.  He gives us a more consistent threat in the post and he can challenge more shots around the rim than Brown (or Pogue). But on the flip side, if he gets matched up with Broekhoff, it will be his first real test defending on the perimeter as he's played most of his minutes at the five spot this year.

[CSURyan]

By the way I think CSU has their bracketbuster sandwiched between the Wisconsin trips, which means two long road trips. Looks like our schedule from last year. (If I am remembering correctly). But agree, CSU has been the most difficult place for us to play at since returning to the Horizon. It seems like we start way too sluggishly and suddenly are down 8-10 and always climbing the hill. We need a fast start to begin both halves. CSU is riding high, but maybe they'll look past us for Butler and the 11 am start on Saturday. (SI)

This is correct regarding the Bracketbuster.  We play at Milwaukee on Tuesday, we're home for Drexel on Saturday and we're back to Green Bay the following Tuesday (exact same as you guys last year).  Tough draw.  Both games will be a challenge, but that Green Bay game really scares me on the back end of that trip and following the nationally televised Drexel game.

As for this week, now that we got the Butler monkey off our backs, I don't see us overlooking you guys for them on Saturday.  Remember that last year we were in this exact same situation.  We were one game up on Milwaukee when they came to our place with a chance to put some separation between us and the rest of the league.  Milwaukee beat us in that game and we went from hosting the tournament to the third seed.  I'm not saying we're going to win, but if we don't it won't be because we overlooked you.

[valpo04]

Valpo 72
CSU 68

[vu72]

Kamczyc is the guy who worries me.  He almost killed us last time going 7 of 8 from the field including 2 of 2 from the 3, for 18 points.  Looking at the box score, the game was incredibly even. Both teams made 6 3's and 12 FTs.  CSU had 16 assts to only 10 TOs while they forced us into 16 TOs.  They did have 23 fouls to our 13 and outrebounded us 32-29.  Still, we won and the only reason I can figure was that we were fresher at the end of the game.  CSU play basicly 6 guys meaningful minutes, while we played 8.  Will that be the same this time?  Does CSU continue to use a short bench?

I know Ryan is banged up and don't have any idea how he will be by game time.  Our depth and 3 point shooting will be critical.  If we go 1 for 17 like we did earlier against Milwaukee we will be doomed.  On the other hand, if we go 8 for 17 like we did against Wright State, we will be hard to beat.

[lowposter]

Ryan:

That is a brutal trip for CSU.  It was tough for VU...and Cleveland is another 250 miles.  The Wisconsin trip is normally tough anyway, then throw in 440 miles from CSU to UWM then 440 back home, play a game, then back to Green Bay (552 miles), play and return 552 miles...ouch.

This bracketbuster is like going out on a date with a high maintenance woman...is it worth it?

lowposter

[sectionee]

Ryan, how deep is the CSU bench? With brown limits at best do you think they just shorten their rotation or is there another guy who will get more minutes?

[CSURyan]

Bracketbuster is not worth it at all. I don't think we get an at-large this year even with a Drexel win. If that game costs us a conference loss I'll be upset.

CSU's bench is pretty inconsistent outside of Grady (to be expected from all freshman and sophomores). 6-6 freshman Marlin Mason will play more at the 3 with Brown out. Mason was supposed to red shirt but he started playing towards the middle of the conference season after a season ending injury to one of our backup guards (which started the problems with our depth).

Our backup PG, Charlie Lee, has been playing better as of late, which allows us to play Montgomery off the ball more. You'll probably see us go small at times with Lee (5-9) at the point with Montgomery (6-1) and Harmon (6-1) on the wings together. 

Waters seems to tighten up the rotation when we're down, which is why we basically went with 6 at your place, but Mason and Lee will definitely get minutes, and one of two sophomore big men (6-9 Ndaye or 6-7 Long) will be pressed into service with Grady now starting.

[historyman]

Interesting how the schedule worked out this year. No wonder Butler opted out of the Bracketbuster last season. Although maybe Homer's whining about the schedule and the Bracketbuster's effect on the schedule really paid off for Valpo this season with the schedule Cleveland State ended up with.

[cornonthe]

Valpo 80
CSU 77

[sliman]

I'm not sure, but I don't think historyman's statement that Butler opted out of the Bracketbuster last year is exactly correct.  I believe they requested and received permission to skip it for a year in order to schedule a repeat of the previous season's NCAA championship game against Duke to open the year.  It may have been a "made-by-TV" game since it was nationally televised.  Nevertheless, the continuing value of Bracketbuster participation is worthy of discussion -- it has enhanced our schedule (adding a couple of teams a year we might not otherwise get scheduled, especially at home, including Missouri State and Loyola Marymount -- but perhaps at a cost.

[CSURyan]

I'm not sure, but I don't think historyman's statement that Butler opted out of the Bracketbuster last year is exactly correct. I believe they requested and received permission to skip it for a year in order to schedule a repeat of the previous season's NCAA championship game against Duke to open the year. It may have been a "made-by-TV" game since it was nationally televised. Nevertheless, the continuing value of Bracketbuster participation is worthy of discussion -- it has enhanced our schedule (adding a couple of teams a year we might not otherwise get scheduled, especially at home, including Missouri State and Loyola Marymount -- but perhaps at a cost.

One of the things that I value most about the Horizon League is the fair and balanced schedule.  If we can find a way to incorporate the Bracketbuster without changing the dynamics of the league schedule, then I'm all for it.  But this year, YSU traveled to Milwaukee on the Tuesday before the Chicago trip and they don't return to Green Bay until the Tuesday after the Bracketbuster.  Why didn't we (CSU) do the same (Green Bay before Chicago and Milwaukee after BB)?

Also, I would think it would be possible to schedule every team against their travel partner the week of the BB so that there is only one conference game that week.  It could be scheduled on a Wednesday to allow teams the time to make the trip home or to their BB opponent.

The last thing I want to think about right now is a non conference game that might not even matter, especially when it's causing so much extra travel and a brutal five games in 11 days schedule to close out the season.

And none of that even mentions the fact that the BB is such a crap shoot.  CSU hasn't faired well in matchups over the years.  We got stuck with a terrible Toledo team a couple years back and it killed our rpi (and had to return that game this year, which killed our rpi), we got sent out to California for CSU-Northridge one year, at a so-so Marist team another year, and even this year Drexel is more than 20 spots below us in the rpi.  Really, the only games that could have been beneficial to us were at Wichita State and at Old Dominion, and we were big underdogs in both games.

[historyman]

You forget that Butler is a rival for Valpo (much more than YSU is a rival for CSU) and playing that game on a Wednesday of bracketbuster week would not make the most of possible attendance numbers. We have to play Butler on a weekend. I'm sure the same is true of Milwaukee & Green Bay.

Maybe the HL should just mix up the travel partners a little for next season as was previously suggested (don't remember who, sorry). Or just eliminate travel partners all together.

[historyman]

I believe they requested and received permission to skip it for a year in order to schedule a repeat of the previous season's NCAA championship game against Duke to open the year. 

Isn't that basically opting out?

[CSURyan]

You forget that Butler is a rival for Valpo (much more than YSU is a rival for CSU) and playing that game on a Wednesday of bracketbuster week would not make the most of possible attendance numbers. We have to play Butler on a weekend. I'm sure the same is true of Milwaukee & Green Bay. Maybe the HL should just mix up the travel partners a little for next season as was previously suggested (don't remember who, sorry). Or just eliminate travel partners all together.

Good point, that frankly I wouldn't have thought of because of our "rivalry" with YSU.

I like the travel partners and woudn't want to see them get mixed up.  Makes no sense to travel to Wisconsin twice, or Chicago, Indiana, Ohio, etc.

I still think there has to be a better way than what they're doing now to schedule around the bracketbuster.  And worst case, they should make it uniform (like sending us and YSU on the same trip, instead of them spreading it out and us packing it into one week).

[valpopal]

The early lines on the game have Valpo as a 9 point underdog. In the last game, Vegas was exactly right in selecting Valpo a 9 point favorite, as the Crusaders won 63-54 over Wright State. I am afraid the oddsmakers may be correct again:

Valpo  61
CSU    70

[CSURyan]

The early lines on the game have Valpo as a 9 point underdog. In the last game, Vegas was exactly right in selecting Valpo a 9 point favorite, as the Crusaders won 63-54 over Wright State. I am afraid the oddsmakers may be correct again: Valpo 61 CSU 70

I think the odds makers are looking at the fact that we've won our last four games by 18+ and five in a row by double digits.  They're also looking at Valpo's track record at the Wolstein Center.  I don't think they're taking into account the match-up problems that you give us and the fact that D'Aundray Brown is doubtful.  No way do I see a 9 point victory (of course I'd take it  )

[sliman]

Historyman, I value your contributions to this board and hope I didn't offend you.  I responded because I interpreted Butler "opting out" of the Bracketbuster to imply that the decision was theirs alone when it's my understanding that they had to get permission to skip the Bracketbuster last year.  Since the conference participates in Bracketbuster, I don't think teams can choose not to participate unless they can make a case why they should be an exception.  But perhaps I'm wrong.

[sectionee]

It's up to 9.5 points with an o/u of 131.5

[bbtds]

You forget that Butler is a rival for Valpo (much more than YSU is a rival for CSU) and playing that game on a Wednesday of bracketbuster week would not make the most of possible attendance numbers. We have to play Butler on a weekend. I'm sure the same is true of Milwaukee & Green Bay. Maybe the HL should just mix up the travel partners a little for next season as was previously suggested (don't remember who, sorry). Or just eliminate travel partners all together.

Good point, that frankly I wouldn't have thought of because of our "rivalry" with YSU.

I like the travel partners and woudn't want to see them get mixed up.  Makes no sense to travel to Wisconsin twice, or Chicago, Indiana, Ohio, etc.

I still think there has to be a better way than what they're doing now to schedule around the bracketbuster.  And worst case, they should make it uniform (like sending us and YSU on the same trip, instead of them spreading it out and us packing it into one week).

Agreed on most points. I do believe that CSU could be teamed with Detroit and YSU with WSU. Also Valpo with Loyola and Butler with UIC. That would help with the Chicago schools picking up some of that "Butler/Valpo hangover."

[historyman]

Historyman, I value your contributions to this board and hope I didn't offend you.  I responded because I interpreted Butler "opting out" of the Bracketbuster to imply that the decision was theirs alone when it's my understanding that they had to get permission to skip the Bracketbuster last year.  Since the conference participates in Bracketbuster, I don't think teams can choose not to participate unless they can make a case why they should be an exception.  But perhaps I'm wrong.

Unfortunately right now the HL will kiss Butler's ass if they ask. Butler is bringing a ton of money into the conference for the next 5 years at least. You're probably correct that other HL teams might not get permission from LeCrone to skip out on the bracketbuster. The bracketbuster helps way too much with pub when the games might be on one of the ESPN channels.

No fear. I also hope I didn't offend you. I just laugh when I think what Butler gets away with in this league. Murray State has the same leeway in the Ohio Valley.