Valpo as March's mid-major darling? (ESPN.com)

[Crusader03]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/7596308/mid-major-schools-big-potential-ncaa-tournament-men-college-basketball

Not a huge mention, but Valpo gets a little love from ESPN.com...

Valparaiso and Butler: Bryce Drew provided one of the memorable moments in school history as a player. Now he hopes to do it again as the Crusaders' first-year coach. Valpo surprisingly sits in first at 12-4 in the Horizon League, home of -- perhaps you've heard of them -- the Butler Bulldogs, who have quietly won four in a row as their favorite month approaches. Are you ready to count them out in the postseason? Not me.

[FWalum]

When he says,

Are you ready to count them out in the postseason? Not me.

I believe he is talking about Butler.

[vuweathernerd]

When he says,

Are you ready to count them out in the postseason? Not me.

I believe he is talking about Butler.

i think you can make the argument that he could be talking about either one, or both of them together. but upon perusing the bubble watch a few minutes ago, we're not even listed as a possible at-large contender. i think the horizon's just gonna be a 1 bid league this year, and it'll be whoever wins the conference tourney.

[FWalum]

I have heard a lot of the pundits (we do a sports talk show here on ESPN 1380) saying that Butler is peaking at the right time and that they will be the winner of the tournament even if we host.

[milanmiracle]

Ive heard that exact thing as well. I don't know if people aren't that impressed with the resume, or what, but a lot of people are picking Butler for the auto bid. Butler is at very least considered the co-favorite even if Valpo hosts. It should be interesting.

*I would not play Kevin tonight unless he's 100%.

[Valpo89]

Ive heard that exact thing as well. I don't know if people aren't that impressed with the resume, or what, but a lot of people are picking Butler for the auto bid. Butler is at very least considered the co-favorite even if Valpo hosts. It should be interesting.

*I would not play Kevin tonight unless he's 100%.

Don't forget, Butler will possibly have to win four games to win the tournament. Have they ever had to do that before? Has anyone done that since this format has been used?

[StlVUFan]

Ive heard that exact thing as well. I don't know if people aren't that impressed with the resume, or what, but a lot of people are picking Butler for the auto bid. Butler is at very least considered the co-favorite even if Valpo hosts. It should be interesting.

*I would not play Kevin tonight unless he's 100%.

Don't forget, Butler will possibly have to win four games to win the tournament. Have they ever had to do that before? Has anyone done that since this format has been used?

Cleveland State in 2009

[vu72]

Ive heard that exact thing as well. I don't know if people aren't that impressed with the resume, or what, but a lot of people are picking Butler for the auto bid. Butler is at very least considered the co-favorite even if Valpo hosts. It should be interesting.

*I would not play Kevin tonight unless he's 100%.

[/b]

I think we will need him. Loyola only lost to the "co-favorite" Butler, on  Butler's floor, last week, by 6, 63-57, and Butler led only 51-49 with 2:19 to play. This won't be a walk in the park.

[johnestuff]

Ive heard that exact thing as well. I don't know if people aren't that impressed with the resume, or what, but a lot of people are picking Butler for the auto bid. Butler is at very least considered the co-favorite even if Valpo hosts. It should be interesting.

*I would not play Kevin tonight unless he's 100%.

[/b]

I think we will need him. Loyola only lost to the "co-favorite" Butler, on  Butler's floor, last week, by 6, 63-57, and Butler led only 51-49 with 2:19 to play. This won't be a walk in the park.

Or did Butler suffer from the effects of the "Butler hangover"?

[covufan]

When he says,

Are you ready to count them out in the postseason? Not me.

I believe he is talking about Butler.

I agree, the writer was writing about Butler, not Valpo.  Of the top 4 in HL play, I don't count any of them out, until they lose to Valpo!

[agibson]

I agree, the writer was writing about Butler, not Valpo.

Definitely.

[FWalum]

And now it looks like they will be playing us for the 2 seed. We need to win Friday's game.

[DMvalpo18]

It's funny he says he won't count butler out even after a noticeably down year. He must really be confident that they are in their best form now. Obviously they have no hope of an at large and neither do we. I guess he must really see them as a favorite to win this tournament, and dance into march yet again. But this time around they will have to earn it the very hard way with 4 straight wins.

[vuweathernerd]

It's funny he says he won't count butler out even after a noticeably down year. He must really be confident that they are in their best form now. Obviously they have no hope of an at large and neither do we. I guess he must really see them as a favorite to win this tournament, and dance into march yet again. But this time around they will have to earn it the very hard way with 4 straight wins.

not necessarily. they're not out of the running for the 2 seed yet.

[covufan]

It's funny he says he won't count butler out even after a noticeably down year. He must really be confident that they are in their best form now. Obviously they have no hope of an at large and neither do we. I guess he must really see them as a favorite to win this tournament, and dance into march yet again. But this time around they will have to earn it the very hard way with 4 straight wins.

I wouldn't count Butler out either.  The streaks that Butler has gone on the last two years shows that the players and coaching staff know what they are doing.  Also, it could just be three straight wins - us in the regular season finale (getting the 2 seed), and two more in the tournament.  For us, beating CSU or Detroit for the third time this season will not be easy.

[StlVUFan]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2087

Horizon: Why nine other teams might want Valpo to win the regular season

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Cleveland St.    10-5   62.5    1.07    0.94    +0.13
2.  Detroit          10-6   64.9    1.06    1.00    +0.06
3.  Valparaiso       12-4   63.3    1.05    1.00    +0.05
4.  Youngstown St.    9-7   63.1    1.04    1.01    +0.03
5.  Butler           10-6   64.2    0.95    0.93    +0.02
6.  Milwaukee         9-7   64.6    0.97    0.96    +0.01
7.  Wright St.        7-9   61.1    0.94    0.94     0.00
8.  Green Bay         7-8   65.6    1.02    1.03    -0.01
9.  UIC              3-12   62.0    0.97    1.08    -0.11
10. Loyola           1-14   59.0    0.89    1.08    -0.19

AVG.                        63.0    0.99

Behold, this is what it looks like when the standings break free of per-possession performance. As Cleveland State falls back to the pack (rapidly), we find Valparaiso a game up in the loss column on the rest of the conference, even though the Crusaders have merely the league's third-best offense and its No. 5 defense. Valpo's perch atop the standings could end up being good news for the rest of the league. In the Horizon tournament, the regular-season Nos. 1 and 2 get waved through all the way to the semis, with No. 1 hosting all games starting with the quarters. If the Crusaders are the host they might be an unusually vulnerable opponent for visiting teams fighting for the Horizon's single NCAA bid. Keep an eye on this.

[valporun]

What scares me about Butler is they are doing exactly what "peaking at the right time" says to do. They are peaking right now, at the most crucial point of the season. Valpo needs to turn around today, and prepare a physical defense that keeps Butler from knowing what to do and how to beat us. We have to be active on defense, can't sit back on our title, and say "Here you go" because that will hurt us in tourney seeds. Giving Butler Friday's game is essentially handing the Bulldogs their third straight trip to the Big Dance. With enough of the momentum they are riding now, they will be scary in the tournament, and I want Valpo to make Butler work to get a win, instead of us playing well for 30-35 minutes, then just dog-paddling our way to the NIT bid we already have. We can't afford to play this Friday night like we did last Friday night. There is more at risk in this Butler game than a season sweep, there's the season sweep, momentum going into the conference tournament, and also seeing Butler have to play 4 games in a week to get to the NCAA tournament, instead of them sitting for 8 days, like we will, and giving them the rest and momentum to win 2 games in 4 days.

[sectionee]

I think Butler is playing as well as they can, this year.  The question is how long can they keep it up?  Its been mentioned plenty of times already, Butler with the double bye is dangerous and maybe favored.  The team that scares me the most though is still Detroit.  They are far and away the most athletic and individually talented team in the league and have played well in stretches this season.  Detroit is the last team I want to face in the tournament.

[MattCarter]

I think Butler is playing as well as they can, this year.  The question is how long can they keep it up?  Its been mentioned plenty of times already, Butler with the double bye is dangerous and maybe favored.  The team that scares me the most though is still Detroit.  They are far and away the most athletic and individually talented team in the league and have played well in stretches this season.  Detroit is the last team I want to face in the tournament.

Oh bring on Detroit.  McCallum can't coach his way out of a paper sack

[historyman]

What scares me about Butler is they are doing exactly what "peaking at the right time" says to do. They are peaking right now, at the most crucial point of the season. Valpo needs to turn around today, and prepare a physical defense that keeps Butler from knowing what to do and how to beat us. We have to be active on defense, can't sit back on our title, and say "Here you go" because that will hurt us in tourney seeds. Giving Butler Friday's game is essentially handing the Bulldogs their third straight trip to the Big Dance. With enough of the momentum they are riding now, they will be scary in the tournament, and I want Valpo to make Butler work to get a win, instead of us playing well for 30-35 minutes, then just dog-paddling our way to the NIT bid we already have. We can't afford to play this Friday night like we did last Friday night. There is more at risk in this Butler game than a season sweep, there's the season sweep, momentum going into the conference tournament, and also seeing Butler have to play 4 games in a week to get to the NCAA tournament, instead of them sitting for 8 days, like we will, and giving them the rest and momentum to win 2 games in 4 days.

The thing that no one has mentioned is that Butler won all of their games except 2 in their current winning streak at home in Hinkle. They still have not shot well from 3 range. The way they are winning is by gaining the momentum with physical play and athletic play down low from Kyle Marshall and Roosevelt Jones. Jones has not played this well all year. Marshall was hurt a good portion of the season.

The guard play of Nored, Stigall and others has been excellent in this winning streak but the Bulldogs are not shooting from 3 nearly as well as Broekhoff, Bogan, Edwards, Kenney and others. Butler was 2 for 11 from 3 against a weak UIC. I think the key will be how well the Valpo defense can stop Marshall and Jones under the basket and if they can challenge them physically and athletically under the basket for rebounds and putting on enough defensive pressure to make them miss under the basket. Our guard play and ball handling will have to be a lot better than the Crusaders have played lately. Butler has played excellent defense lately and if Valpo starts making mistakes like throwing bad passes or letting Buggs dribble into trouble or forcing things when caught in a move to the basket not knowing what they were going to do with the ball then Butler will get a big lead and not relinquish it.

On the other hand if Valpo can keep it close by playing some tough defense like Butler, play physically & athletically tough under the basket, make free throws, not make a lot of turnovers, hit those important 3 pointers near the end of the game to thwart Butler's momentum then Valpo can squeak out a win and send Butler to the #3 or #4 seed in the HL tourney which is also not at Hinkle this year except the first round game which they wouldn't lose at Valpo or Hinkle.