The Horizon League--Next Year

[vu72]

We have already replaced Anthony Hill (or come close) with the JUCO big we brought in, Demetrius Harris.

Pending Jeter's possible departure (and perhaps his replacement if he does) the shooting guard we are recruiting visited last weekend.  If we get him, there is no fall-off.  He's a better, more consistent shooter than Boyle (44% from 3 last year in JUCO) and is very good on defense.

Should he come to Milwaukee, I'm picking us as champs next year.  And I haven't done that since the last time we went to the tournament - I usually put us below what I expect, but I wouldn't see a hole.

Of course, should Jeter leave, his recruitment becomes tougher, but if we hire the right guy (i.e. the guy recruiting him), he likely commits anyways.

Hill is tough to replace, but in Harris we think we have that replacement.

Sure thing.  You are going to replace an all conference first tamer with a JUCO.  Was this guy a first team all american?  Are you kidding me?  So if we lose Brandon, we are bringing in an actual First Team Section 8 All American so we sure should be the favorite.  Huh??  As for the other guy replacing Tone Boyle, think again about that too. Boyle and Hill were seniors.  Kids just don't wanlz into D1 and star unless they are Brandon Wood.

I have no doubt Milwaukee will be competitive but let's calm down all of our expectations.

[motowntitan]

Anybody who thinks Detroit will win the conference is forgetting that Ray Sr. is the coach, not Brad Stevens.

Any coach who has Eli Holman in the Horizon and doesn't run the ball through him on even 50% of possessions needs his head examined.

I can't argue your 1st point at this time. 

However, if you look at our roster- we are the only team that had all 5 starters in double digits (and #6 at 8.6).  The two biggest problems we had was no defense (my current theory is we played with only 10 players) and team chemistry- we had too many scorers.  Our top six players all went for over 20 at least once.  It is a nice problem to have- BUT it is still a problem going from game to game when everyone wants the rock.

Kids just don't wanlz into D1 and star unless they are Brandon Wood.

VU72

Brandon Wood waltzed into Southern Illinois and averaged 3.7 points as a Freshman- then sat a transfer year at Valpo (practicing the whole time) and then starred in what was practically his Junior year.

Give credit where credit is due- Ray McCallum Jr did quite well as a Freshman, playing against Jr's: Nored, Mack, Wood, Williams, Montgomery, Harmon.  Sr's: Cole, Little, Kreps, Duggins, Evans, Boyle, Fletcher, and Perine.

The Horizon had the best combination of guards I think I have ever seen at once.

 

[motowntitan]

I also want to add my early preseason Horizon League Halves (in no order):

Top Half= Butler, Cleveland State, Detroit, Milw, and Valpo

With YSU as a darkhorse.

Bottom Half= UIC, Loyola, WSU, GB

[BigDWSU]

motowntitan

Brandon Wood didn't sit out a transfer year at Valpo.  He went to Southern Illinois as a freshman but then transferred to a Highland CC for his sophomore year before coming to Valpo.

http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/179/3936/

[zvillehaze]

Anybody who thinks Detroit will win the conference is forgetting that Ray Sr. is the coach, not Brad Stevens.

Any coach who has Eli Holman in the Horizon and doesn't run the ball through him on even 50% of possessions needs his head examined.

I can't argue your 1st point at this time.  

However, if you look at our roster- we are the only team that had all 5 starters in double digits (and #6 at 8.6).  The two biggest problems we had was no defense (my current theory is we played with only 10 players) and team chemistry- we had too many scorers.  Our top six players all went for over 20 at least once.  It is a nice problem to have- BUT it is still a problem going from game to game when everyone wants the rock.

Kids just don't wanlz into D1 and star unless they are Brandon Wood.

VU72

Brandon Wood waltzed into Southern Illinois and averaged 3.7 points as a Freshman- then sat a transfer year at Valpo (practicing the whole time) and then starred in what was practically his Junior year.

Give credit where credit is due- Ray McCallum Jr did quite well as a Freshman, playing against Jr's: Nored, Mack, Wood, Williams, Montgomery, Harmon.  Sr's: Cole, Little, Kreps, Duggins, Evans, Boyle, Fletcher, and Perine.

The Horizon had the best combination of guards I think I have ever seen at once.

 

To be fair, Wood was injured his freshman year at SIU and received a redshirt season.  He also didn't sit out a year at Valpo because he transferred from a JUCO.

[vu72]

Anybody who thinks Detroit will win the conference is forgetting that Ray Sr. is the coach, not Brad Stevens.

Any coach who has Eli Holman in the Horizon and doesn't run the ball through him on even 50% of possessions needs his head examined.

I can't argue your 1st point at this time. 

However, if you look at our roster- we are the only team that had all 5 starters in double digits (and #6 at 8.6).  The two biggest problems we had was no defense (my current theory is we played with only 10 players) and team chemistry- we had too many scorers.  Our top six players all went for over 20 at least once.  It is a nice problem to have- BUT it is still a problem going from game to game when everyone wants the rock.

Kids just don't wanlz into D1 and star unless they are Brandon Wood.

VU72

Brandon Wood waltzed into Southern Illinois and averaged 3.7 points as a Freshman- then sat a transfer year at Valpo (practicing the whole time) and then starred in what was practically his Junior year.

Give credit where credit is due- Ray McCallum Jr did quite well as a Freshman, playing against Jr's: Nored, Mack, Wood, Williams, Montgomery, Harmon.  Sr's: Cole, Little, Kreps, Duggins, Evans, Boyle, Fletcher, and Perine.

The Horizon had the best combination of guards I think I have ever seen at once.

 

My comment was about JUCOs coming in and being an All conference player.  It was addressed to panther who was telling us about the JUCO who was going to replace Ant Hill.  Wood came to Valpo out of a JUCO, that was my point.

[vuweathernerd]

ysu as a dark horse for top half of the horizon? is that a joke? or have i missed something about them improving ridiculously in the off-season?

[vu72]

YSU brings everyone back except Solstis.  Seeing that they took us to OT and beat Butler, also battled Milwaukee till late and beat Bowling Green as I recall, leaves many of us with an idea that they could be a tough out.

[valporun]

I also want to add my early preseason Horizon League Halves (in no order):

Top Half= Butler, Cleveland State, Detroit, Milw, and Valpo

With YSU as a darkhorse.

Bottom Half= UIC, Loyola, WSU, GB

If you notice, most of the bottom half of the conference/league is made up of new coaches who will have relatively new recruiting classes and lineups. YSU doesn't fit the bottom half, as they did before, because they didn't change coaches recently, and they have a good amount of returnees for this coming season. WSU also doesn't totally fit this, but they have to find someone to replace Vaughn Duggins now.

[blackpantheruwm]

You're right, we really don't have a history of all-conference JUCO's, vu72.  Only James Eayrs, Tone Boyle, Ed McCants, Kaylon Williams (all-newcomer), Avery Smith, Boo Davis, ah well I think you get the point.

We lost Boyle, who had been not much more than a chucker by the end of his season, and Anthony Hill, who - you're absolutely right - was a dominant force down low.

But there's something else that I've got going with our recruits that I don't think anyone else does - I've seen them play.  I could bore you with notes that you'd probably just dismiss as a fan's folly, so I won't go into detail.

Just don't expect a drop-off. We may have some time at the center position for Harris to gel, and from what I saw he didn't have as polished a low-post move as Hill, but that's really the only downgrade, and I'm not even sure that is when we add in James Haarsma (11 and 7 as a sophomore at Evansville in 09-10).

We lose essentially Anthony Hill (great) and Tone Boyle (decent).  We gain what will be a six-man recruiting class in: Demetrius Harris (junior, banger, very strong, unpolished); Paris Gulley (junior, sharpshooter 46% 3PT and 85% FT, 14 ppg); Shaq Boga (freshman, fought off 4 Big Ten schools if you include Nebraska - NU, Minny, Iowa, Purdue - and all the top echelon MVC, 20 ppg 5 apg); JJ Panoske (freshman, 6'10'' PF, 2nd-rated WI player, great outside shot and solid post moves); James Haarsma (6'5'' bull-in-a-china-shop, 11 ppg 7 rpg soph. yr Evansville); and Evan Richard (looks like a manager but is matched in athleticism by only Ryan Allen - 40-inch vertical, scored 50 in a game as a senior, scored 26 ppg despite usually playing only 2-3 quarters per game senior yr).

I look at it in comparison to our own past - even in our Sweet 16 year, there's no way Evan Richard, a ridiculously talented scorer who has amazing athleticism would have redshirted.  This past season, we were so deep in talent that guys who played a lot in the previous season (Lonnie Boga and Ryan Haggerty) had been pushed towards the back of the bench because of the influx of talent last season.  Not only did Richard redshirt, but it looks like JJ Panoske is a prime candidate to redshirt.  I've seen him play 5 times, and I'm confident that he'd be starting at the 4 for any of these schools: GB, WSU, YSU, UIC, LUC (with Ben Averkamp at other forward).  He's most likely redshirting as a freshman because of our incredible depth.

Our achilles heel of the last season was that when the going got tough, Kaylon Williams had a hard time holding onto the ball.  This go-round, we have the most sought-after recruit in our history coming to back him up, as Shaq Boga turned down bona fide scholarship offers from Purdue and a host of Big Ten and MVC schools to play in Milwaukee with his brother Lonnie.  It may not be the whole season before he gets the keys to the car, but even if we have to wait until 2012-13 for him to start, he'll be there with his ridiculously high A/TO ratio for a high school player to spell Kaylon Williams when he has an off night.

I said in an earlier post that if we got Paris Gulley and Larry Nance Jr., I'd be picking us to win the Horizon regardless of what Shelvin Mack does.  I pride myself on not overblowing my preseason predictions - I haven't picked Milwaukee to win the conference since my freshman year of college, the last time we went to the NCAA Tournament and won both regular season and tourney championships.  Well, we got our NLI from Paris Gulley today.  I wish I could see the other teams' incoming players the way I've seen ours, because I'm damn excited about our prospects and want to make sure I'm not overlooking anyone else's incoming class.  I still think, based on reports, that Cleveland State's Anton Grady will be the best incoming player, but Norris Cole will be a lot harder to replace than Anthony Hill and we have a full class coming in.

I just haven't had this much enthusiasm in five years.  If we pick up Nance, I'm fully expecting a championship and an NCAA Tournament.  If we don't, I expect we'll be very close to this year and possibly better.

As for other teams:

YSU will always be a tough out, especially at home, because of the chip on their shoulder.  Hence the 30-point loss to Loyola, who was seen as lower-class with them last season.

If Brandon Wood is definitely gone, I just can't justify picking VU anywhere higher than 5th.  I like Valpo, I like Broekhoff, I kinda like Harris, but I just can't see VU as good or better with Wood gone.  If he is, you'll have the second-biggest drop-off in talent behind Butler and ahead of CSU.

The drop-off in talent, of course, is everywhere.  All four of the teams at the top are losing top guns - Howard, Cole, Johnson, Hill - and great role players as well.  Detroit, on the other hand, loses no one - but I've been pretty clear in my belief that Ray Sr. isn't doing the best job coaching the team.  And the offseason isn't over - by this time last year, Xavier Keeling was still a Titan.

I get where you're coming from on our incoming class - a lot of them are sight unseen.  I'm just sick to my stomach thinking that it's half a year before you guys get to see this Murderer's Row that Jeter and his staff have assembled.

[sectionee]

Sounds like you guys have a lot of nice pieces coming in.  Kind of sounds a lot like Detroit's situation this past year.  It did take these guys a while before they started to gel.  Having all this talent is one thing, learning to play together and maximize that talent is another.  Hopefully (for your sake) your coach can get your guys to mesh quicker then Detroit did.

[vu72]

obviously panther is excited and it sure looks like he has good reason.  My point was not that JUCOs can't make all conference, but rather that it is unusual for a newcomer, either freshman or JUCO to instantly have an all conference impact.

Remember our incoming class from two years ago was as highly regarded as any in recent memory, including the Australian High School Player of the Year, and an Indiana All Star starter.  Oh yeah, a guy named Brandon Wood was in that group as well and we also added Cory Johnson, for his first year of eligibility.  We finished tied for fourth.  Now, we didn't have the returning guys that Milwaukee has and I think that's his point.

Detroit is an excellent example of how guys need to play together and panther is right that Jeter is a much better coach than McCallum.

[zvillehaze]

I get where you're coming from on our incoming class - a lot of them are sight unseen.  I'm just sick to my stomach thinking that it's half a year before you guys get to see this Murderer's Row that Jeter and his staff have assembled.

I'll be interested to see how long it takes Jeter to find a consistent rotation, which has historically been an issue for Milwaukee.  He did a much better job this past season and the results were positive.

[vu72]

For what it's worth, I just checked JucoJunction/Rivals and they don't have any of Milwaukee's recruits, Juco or otherwise, ranked.  They do have our guy Justin Edwards ranked No. 93 in their top 150 Juco guys.  Just sayin.

[IrishDawg]

Panther, you very well could be right in that next year might be the Panthers year.  The only issue that Jeter seems to have to figure out is how to make sure that all those kids are able to find their rhythm on the floor.

What I'm looking forward to, whether or not Mack stays, is how good this younger group can be for Butler.  I think both Jones (he may even start) and Woods are going to play some minutes for the Dogs next year, and the wild cards are Smeathers (6'7 G/F), Aldridge (6'1 G), and possibly another guard should Mack go.  Overall, these kids are very athletic and should be very good defensively.  Just the shooting that I'm worried about.  I think Butler's probably another year away from being very, very good again.

[blackpantheruwm]

Great point, zville.

[zvillehaze]

Great point, zville.

Thanks, Jimmy.  I knew if I kept posting, I've eventually come up with something that somebody likes.

[motowntitan]

I also want to add my early preseason Horizon League Halves (in no order):

Top Half= Butler, Cleveland State, Detroit, Milw, and Valpo

With YSU as a darkhorse.

Bottom Half= UIC, Loyola, WSU, GB

If you notice, most of the bottom half of the conference/league is made up of new coaches who will have relatively new recruiting classes and lineups. YSU doesn't fit the bottom half, as they did before, because they didn't change coaches recently, and they have a good amount of returnees for this coming season. WSU also doesn't totally fit this, but they have to find someone to replace Vaughn Duggins now.

and Evans, and Tabler, and Land.  Not to mention the two other guards that left. 

Also, my speculation was an early one.  I will probably do a more complete version over the summer when we have a better idea of new arrivals and other transfer outs.

[dylanrocks]

With Brandon's move to Michigan State seemingly sealed, here's my early projection for the coming year:

1, Butler -- How can you pick against the Bulldogs, with or without Shelvin Mack ... or Mark Shelvin?

2, Milwaukee -- There's just too much material here to place the Panthers outside the top two.

3, Cleveland State -- Anton Grady looks like the real thing, but Norris Cole won't be replaced easily.

4, Detroit -- This is a nod to raw talent (McCallum, Holman, Simon, Minerath) and an indictment of poor coaching.

5, Valparaiso -- I really like Broekhoff and Kenney, but Johnson, Wood, Little and Rogers mark a lot of turnover.

6, Youngstown State -- I'd like to place them higher, but history indicates that this is the Penguins' ceiling.

7, Green Bay -- I'm a big fan of Alec Brown, but the guard duo of Fletcher and Perine was this team's engine.

8, Wright State -- The two-year loss of Brown, Cooperwood, Duggins, Evans and Land catches up to the Raiders.

9, UIC -- Tough call between the Flames and LU; I'll give the nod to the team in its second season under new leadership.

10, Loyola -- Averkamp, Gibler are about all the Ramblers have to hang their hats on; they look to be a few years away.

[vu72]

With Brandon's move to Michigan State seemingly sealed, here's my early projection for the coming year:

1, Butler -- How can you pick against the Bulldogs, with or without Shelvin Mack ... or Mark Shelvin?

2, Milwaukee -- There's just too much material here to place the Panthers outside the top two.

3, Cleveland State -- Anton Grady looks like the real thing, but Norris Cole won't be replaced easily.

4, Detroit -- This is a nod to raw talent (McCallum, Holman, Simon, Minerath) and an indictment of poor coaching.

5, Valparaiso -- I really like Broekhoff and Kenney, but Johnson, Wood, Little and Rogers mark a lot of turnover.

6, Youngstown State -- I'd like to place them higher, but history indicates that this is the Penguins' ceiling.

7, Green Bay -- I'm a big fan of Alec Brown, but the guard duo of Fletcher and Perine was this team's engine.

8, Wright State -- The two-year loss of Brown, Cooperwood, Duggins, Evans and Land catches up to the Raiders.

9, UIC -- Tough call between the Flames and LU; I'll give the nod to the team in its second season under new leadership.

10, Loyola -- Averkamp, Gibler are about all the Ramblers have to hang their hats on; they look to be a few years away.

Where are you getting the Michigan State info??

[sectionee]

With Brandon's move to Michigan State seemingly sealed, here's my early projection for the coming year:

1, Butler -- How can you pick against the Bulldogs, with or without Shelvin Mack ... or Mark Shelvin?

2, Milwaukee -- There's just too much material here to place the Panthers outside the top two.

3, Cleveland State -- Anton Grady looks like the real thing, but Norris Cole won't be replaced easily.

4, Detroit -- This is a nod to raw talent (McCallum, Holman, Simon, Minerath) and an indictment of poor coaching.

5, Valparaiso -- I really like Broekhoff and Kenney, but Johnson, Wood, Little and Rogers mark a lot of turnover.

6, Youngstown State -- I'd like to place them higher, but history indicates that this is the Penguins' ceiling.

7, Green Bay -- I'm a big fan of Alec Brown, but the guard duo of Fletcher and Perine was this team's engine.

8, Wright State -- The two-year loss of Brown, Cooperwood, Duggins, Evans and Land catches up to the Raiders.

9, UIC -- Tough call between the Flames and LU; I'll give the nod to the team in its second season under new leadership.

10, Loyola -- Averkamp, Gibler are about all the Ramblers have to hang their hats on; they look to be a few years away.

Like your breakdown.  I think Detroit is my team to beat this year.  But that is the only spot were we'd differ in opinion.

[vu72]

Fifth is fine with me, it will keep the target off our back.  Yes, we lose a lot of scoring but with the guys coming in, don't expect a big drop off, probably none. I expect us to be in the hunt again next year and, if we can keep Kevin healthy or,  if Vucic can contribute, then we can do something special.

[valpo04]

With Brandon's move to Michigan State seemingly sealed, here's my early projection for the coming year:

1, Butler -- How can you pick against the Bulldogs, with or without Shelvin Mack ... or Mark Shelvin?

2, Milwaukee -- There's just too much material here to place the Panthers outside the top two.

3, Cleveland State -- Anton Grady looks like the real thing, but Norris Cole won't be replaced easily.

4, Detroit -- This is a nod to raw talent (McCallum, Holman, Simon, Minerath) and an indictment of poor coaching.

5, Valparaiso -- I really like Broekhoff and Kenney, but Johnson, Wood, Little and Rogers mark a lot of turnover.

6, Youngstown State -- I'd like to place them higher, but history indicates that this is the Penguins' ceiling.

7, Green Bay -- I'm a big fan of Alec Brown, but the guard duo of Fletcher and Perine was this team's engine.

8, Wright State -- The two-year loss of Brown, Cooperwood, Duggins, Evans and Land catches up to the Raiders.

9, UIC -- Tough call between the Flames and LU; I'll give the nod to the team in its second season under new leadership.

10, Loyola -- Averkamp, Gibler are about all the Ramblers have to hang their hats on; they look to be a few years away.

Where are you getting the Michigan State info??

http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=43.msg1517#msg1517

[dylanrocks]

For the record, I think it's a bad thing for our league that Brandon is leaving Valpo.

But it's also not something for which I blame him; the rule exists and he's taking advantage.

I'll root for him any time he's not playing against a non-BCS school.

[covufan]

With Brandon's move to Michigan State seemingly sealed, here's my early projection for the coming year:

1, Butler -- How can you pick against the Bulldogs, with or without Shelvin Mack ... or Mark Shelvin?

2, Milwaukee -- There's just too much material here to place the Panthers outside the top two.

3, Cleveland State -- Anton Grady looks like the real thing, but Norris Cole won't be replaced easily.

4, Detroit -- This is a nod to raw talent (McCallum, Holman, Simon, Minerath) and an indictment of poor coaching.

5, Valparaiso -- I really like Broekhoff and Kenney, but Johnson, Wood, Little and Rogers mark a lot of turnover.

6, Youngstown State -- I'd like to place them higher, but history indicates that this is the Penguins' ceiling.

7, Green Bay -- I'm a big fan of Alec Brown, but the guard duo of Fletcher and Perine was this team's engine.

8, Wright State -- The two-year loss of Brown, Cooperwood, Duggins, Evans and Land catches up to the Raiders.

9, UIC -- Tough call between the Flames and LU; I'll give the nod to the team in its second season under new leadership.

10, Loyola -- Averkamp, Gibler are about all the Ramblers have to hang their hats on; they look to be a few years away.

Where are you getting the Michigan State info??

http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=43.msg1517#msg1517

Hadn't heard about Fife going to be an assistant at MSU.  MSU seems to have the lead...