The Horizon League--Next Year

[vu72]

Although I actually have plenty to do, I found myself wondering how the league will look next year with all the big name departures.  I did some research and found a few things of interest, at least to me!

Here we go:

Percentage of points scored lost to graduation:

Wright State         80
UIC                     64
Loyola                 49
Green Bay            44
Milwaukee            44
Butler                  41
Valpo                  39
Cleveland State    36
YSU                    21
Detroit                 -0-

More important to this discussion is exactly who is graduating and how they influenced the league.

Starting with Wright State, they lose the most, in Troy Tabler, Ngai Evans, Cooper Land and Vaughn Duggins. Clearly they will be down a bunch and can't really see them in the top half of the conference.

Next you have UIC who loses Paul Carter and Robo Kreps plus three other role players.  What can you say--the worst just got a lot worse.

Loyola loses four, led by Geoff McCammon and Terrance Hill as well as Andy Polka and Ryan Sterling.  Can't see them in the top half either.

Our buddies Green Bay lose two of the quickest guards in the league in Rahman Fletcher and Bryquis Perine.  I won't miss them one bit.  If they can find some back court talent, they should be pretty solid next year even with the losses.

Milwaukee will take a step back with the loss of Tone Boyle and Ant Hill.  Those guys have been Valpo killers and I'm glad to see them go.

Butler loses Matt Howard, Shawn Vanzant and Zach Hahn.  Can't see how they will be the favorite next year but they do seem to find a way.

We all know about losing Cory, Howard and Mike.

CSU doesn't lose a large percentage of scoring but it is who they lose that is critical.  You don't replace Norris Cole with just anybody.  They also lose DeAndrey Brown at 8.6 ppg.

YSU in intriguing in that they do lose one of the leagues better players in Vytas Sulskis but that is it other than a small role player in Dan Boudler.  This team will be scary as they beat Butler, took us to overtime, almost beat Milwaukee and will have virtually everyone back.  Next year could be their breakout to respectability.

And then you have Detroit.  Everyone back.  They will be one of the favorites for sure.

The league loses some people who will be difficult to replace and I think that overall the league will be weaker.  You don't lose people like Matt Howard or Norris Cole and expect everything to be the same.

If Butler repeats then Brad Stevens should go directly to the Hall of Fame. Don't get me wrong, they will be good with three starters returning, but, a player like Howard only comes along once every 20 years or so--a guy who had a big impact from the time he first set foot on the court as a freshman.

I like our chances--presuming that one bwood decides to stay put.  I would think the coaches might have Detroit as the favorite, followed by Butler, us, CSU and then YSU followed by Green Bay, Milwaukee, Wright State, Loyola and then UIC.

Obviously, this is without regard to anyone coming in.  If their is another McDonald's All American coming then things will be different.  As we have seen with a guy like Jay Harris, regardless of how good they were in high school, it takes some time to get up to speed for the college game.  That is, unless you are Matt Howard or Gordon Hayward.

[motowntitan]

As we have seen with a guy like Jay Harris, regardless of how good they were in high school, it takes some time to get up to speed for the college game.  That is, unless you are Matt Howard or Gordon Hayward.

Well, McCallum jr did ok going up against all the great upperclassman guards this year 

Great analysis though VU72.

So the big 3 remaining questions for next year are:

1) Did Shelvin Mack just play himself into the NBA these past few weeks?

2) Will Homer come back?

3) Will Brandon Wood come back?

[valpo84]

I'm looking forward to the Broekoff/Khylie Marshall and Chrishown/Jay Harris matchups the next couple years.

[milanmiracle]

I'm looking forward to the Broekoff/Khylie Marshall and Chrishown/Jay Harris matchups the next couple years.

Broekhoff and Khyle Marshall shouldn't be guarding each other. Well, Broekhoff may have to guard Marshall, but I don't see Butler using Marshall on Broekhoff. They do two very different things and both do them well. I'd probably take Marshall as Valpo doesn't have anybody else like him on the roster, but overall Broekhoff is better.

As for the Chrishawn vs. Jay Harris, that won't be all that close. Hopkins is just better. I am not just talking about the 2 minutes in the Elite 8 either. By the time he's a junior he'll be the best player on Butler's roster. That's saying something!

[BigDWSU]

As for the Chrishawn vs. Jay Harris, that won't be all that close. Hopkins is just better. I am not just talking about the 2 minutes in the Elite 8 either. By the time he's a junior he'll be the best player on Butler's roster. That's saying something!

I'm not sure he can stay eligible until his junior year.

[milanmiracle]

As for the Chrishawn vs. Jay Harris, that won't be all that close. Hopkins is just better. I am not just talking about the 2 minutes in the Elite 8 either. By the time he's a junior he'll be the best player on Butler's roster. That's saying something!

Acutally I just read an article about Chrishawn and his grades. Apparently he's doing very well and that was part of the focus of the article. He's taking his education seriously, and from the sounds of it, that was a problem in the past. My guess is he'll be eligible. Butler isn't the kind of school/program where that's a problem.

I'm not sure he can stay eligible until his junior year.

[vu72]

I'm looking forward to the Broekoff/Khylie Marshall and Chrishown/Jay Harris matchups the next couple years.

Broekhoff and Khyle Marshall shouldn't be guarding each other. Well, Broekhoff may have to guard Marshall, but I don't see Butler using Marshall on Broekhoff. They do two very different things and both do them well. I'd probably take Marshall as Valpo doesn't have anybody else like him on the roster, but overall Broekhoff is better.

As for the Chrishawn vs. Jay Harris, that won't be all that close. Hopkins is just better. I am not just talking about the 2 minutes in the Elite 8 either. By the time he's a junior he'll be the best player on Butler's roster. That's saying something!

Seeing that he Hopkins has basicly zero college experience, not sure where in the world you get him being so much better than Jay.  If you just took his performance down at Butler (sixteen points??), while Hopkins sat on the bench, I suppose you could project Jay as being way better by his Junor year also.

I don't know who will be better but if you don't think Jay will be much better next year versus this year then perhaps you should have a chat with one of our coaches.

[wh]

I'm looking forward to the Broekoff/Khylie Marshall and Chrishown/Jay Harris matchups the next couple years.

Broekhoff and Khyle Marshall shouldn't be guarding each other. Well, Broekhoff may have to guard Marshall, but I don't see Butler using Marshall on Broekhoff. They do two very different things and both do them well. I'd probably take Marshall as Valpo doesn't have anybody else like him on the roster, but overall Broekhoff is better.

As for the Chrishawn vs. Jay Harris, that won't be all that close. Hopkins is just better. I am not just talking about the 2 minutes in the Elite 8 either. By the time he's a junior he'll be the best player on Butler's roster. That's saying something!

Seeing that he Hopkins has basicly zero college experience, not sure where in the world you get him being so much better than Jay.  If you just took his performance down at Butler (sixteen points??), while Hopkins sat on the bench, I suppose you could project Jay as being way better by his Junor year also.

I don't know who will be better but if you don't think Jay will be much better next year versus this year then perhaps you should have a chat with one of our coaches.

Boy, has this become a "slobber all over Butler" board lately, or what?  The longer the season went on, the farther down the depth chart Hopkins went.  He played very little and he had very little impact, positive or negative, on anything Butler did all season.  He may develop into a fine player before it's over, but at this point to say "he's just plain better" than Harris after the Freshman season Hopkins DIDN'T have should be left to some clueless knucklehead on the Butler board.

[zvillehaze]

Seeing that he Hopkins has basicly zero college experience, not sure where in the world you get him being so much better than Jay.  If you just took his performance down at Butler (sixteen points??), while Hopkins sat on the bench, I suppose you could project Jay as being way better by his Junor year also.

I don't know who will be better but if you don't think Jay will be much better next year versus this year then perhaps you should have a chat with one of our coaches.

I'll look more closely once the season is over, but vu72 did a nice job on his initial analysis.  As others have pointed out, whether or not Wood and Mack return (as well as Stevens) will have a significant impact on the outlook for both Valpo and Butler.

I'll also agree with you on the Hopkins discussion ... difficult to make any judgements at this point.  Harris earned the opportunity for PT and made contributions.  The Butler coaches are high on Hopkins and he's progressed enough that the staff felt confident putting him on the court against Florida in the Elite Eight.  I think he'll be very good, but as you point out, he'll need to prove that on the court.

Interestingly, vu72 also had negative things to say about Butler's freshmen last year.  Two of those guys who didn't contribute much as freshmen, Andrew Smith and Chase Stigall, will be starting in a National Championship game tomorrow.  Thngs can change.

[vu72]

I did say that I wasn't all that impressed with Smith, who came in with very high marks from the Butler faithful.  Not sure I said anything about Stigall and I'm still not sure what he brings to the table other than a spot up shooter.  I said early in the year that he had made a big jump in his shooting, I do remember that.

The point in all this is that as freshman, it is difficult to truly judge, unless you are a McDonald's All American.

We just don't know about how that second year will work out for any of them.  Homer likes to say that the biggest improvement is from the freshman to sophomore year, so it should be interesting.

[milanmiracle]

I'm looking forward to the Broekoff/Khylie Marshall and Chrishown/Jay Harris matchups the next couple years.

Broekhoff and Khyle Marshall shouldn't be guarding each other. Well, Broekhoff may have to guard Marshall, but I don't see Butler using Marshall on Broekhoff. They do two very different things and both do them well. I'd probably take Marshall as Valpo doesn't have anybody else like him on the roster, but overall Broekhoff is better.

As for the Chrishawn vs. Jay Harris, that won't be all that close. Hopkins is just better. I am not just talking about the 2 minutes in the Elite 8 either. By the time he's a junior he'll be the best player on Butler's roster. That's saying something!

Seeing that he Hopkins has basicly zero college experience, not sure where in the world you get him being so much better than Jay.  If you just took his performance down at Butler (sixteen points??), while Hopkins sat on the bench, I suppose you could project Jay as being way better by his Junor year also.

I don't know who will be better but if you don't think Jay will be much better next year versus this year then perhaps you should have a chat with one of our coaches.

I am just going on what I saw of Chrishawn in HS vs. Jay in college. At no point did I say that Jay wouldn't be a good player. I am just projecting Chrishawn to be better.

[vu72]

I'm looking forward to the Broekoff/Khylie Marshall and Chrishown/Jay Harris matchups the next couple years.

Broekhoff and Khyle Marshall shouldn't be guarding each other. Well, Broekhoff may have to guard Marshall, but I don't see Butler using Marshall on Broekhoff. They do two very different things and both do them well. I'd probably take Marshall as Valpo doesn't have anybody else like him on the roster, but overall Broekhoff is better.

As for the Chrishawn vs. Jay Harris, that won't be all that close. Hopkins is just better. I am not just talking about the 2 minutes in the Elite 8 either. By the time he's a junior he'll be the best player on Butler's roster. That's saying something!

Seeing that he Hopkins has basicly zero college experience, not sure where in the world you get him being so much better than Jay.  If you just took his performance down at Butler (sixteen points??), while Hopkins sat on the bench, I suppose you could project Jay as being way better by his Junor year also.

I don't know who will be better but if you don't think Jay will be much better next year versus this year then perhaps you should have a chat with one of our coaches.

I am just going on what I saw of Chrishawn in HS vs. Jay in college. At no point did I say that Jay wouldn't be a good player. I am just projecting Chrishawn to be better.

Not trying to split  hairs, but did you see Jay play in high school where he was an Illinois Big School First Team All State player?  High School is one thing, college is quite another issue.

[milanmiracle]

I'm looking forward to the Broekoff/Khylie Marshall and Chrishown/Jay Harris matchups the next couple years.

Broekhoff and Khyle Marshall shouldn't be guarding each other. Well, Broekhoff may have to guard Marshall, but I don't see Butler using Marshall on Broekhoff. They do two very different things and both do them well. I'd probably take Marshall as Valpo doesn't have anybody else like him on the roster, but overall Broekhoff is better.

As for the Chrishawn vs. Jay Harris, that won't be all that close. Hopkins is just better. I am not just talking about the 2 minutes in the Elite 8 either. By the time he's a junior he'll be the best player on Butler's roster. That's saying something!

Seeing that he Hopkins has basically zero college experience, not sure where in the world you get him being so much better than Jay.  If you just took his performance down at Butler (sixteen points??), while Hopkins sat on the bench, I suppose you could project Jay as being way better by his Junior year also.

I don't know who will be better but if you don't think Jay will be much better next year versus this year then perhaps you should have a chat with one of our coaches.

I am just going on what I saw of Chrishawn in HS vs. Jay in college. At no point did I say that Jay wouldn't be a good player. I am just projecting Chrishawn to be better.

Not trying to split  hairs, but did you see Jay play in high school where he was an Illinois Big School First Team All State player?  High School is one thing, college is quite another issue.

Can't say that I did, since I was not up for driving to Illinois to see Jay play. I likely would have been impressed. College and high school are two very different things, no doubt about it. I am also well aware of Jay's high school background (how could you be on this forum and not know?), but I also know that Chrishawn was the Indianapolis City player of the year averaging 25 pts per game, 7 rebounds and shooting 42% from three. Don't underestimate what he can and will bring to Butler in the coming years. All I know is I am looking forward to watching both players develop and improve!

[vu72]

 Fair enough.  It should be interesting indeed.  Chrishawn's stats seem remarkably similar to Jay's high school numbers.
This from Mark Lazerus' column concerning his signing:

A First Team All-State selection by the Illinois Basketball Coaches Association and a Second Team All-State honoree by the Chicago Tribune, Harris averaged better than 28 points per game for the Wolves as a senior. He also posted 3.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting at a 44% clip from behind the 3-point line and 87% from the charity stripe.

[vuweathernerd]

87% from the charity stripe.

thank god he continued to shoot well at the line this year. our team ft percentage would have been even worse, and i highly doubt that we'd have been in the running for the top of the conference with the rest of them... those freebies were anything but (which has been a rather bothersome problem for the last few years now).

[jmill]

As we have seen with a guy like Jay Harris, regardless of how good they were in high school, it takes some time to get up to speed for the college game.  That is, unless you are Matt Howard or Gordon Hayward.

Well, McCallum jr did ok going up against all the great upperclassman guards this year 

Great analysis though VU72.

So the big 3 remaining questions for next year are:

1) Did Shelvin Mack just play himself into the NBA these past few weeks?

2) Will Homer come back?

3) Will Brandon Wood come back?

1. He played himself into declaring. Don't know if he'll get drafted.
2. Yes.
3. No. He'll get bad advice, hire an agent, then be screwed (as will we) when he doesn't hook on with an NBA team.

[rlh]

Totally disagree with number 3.  Wood will be back after finding out what he needs to improve on......

Homer isn't ready to give it up yet...so he'll be back too....

Don't think Mack has played himself into the NBA, but he needs to leave this year.  I don't see them being anywhere near as good next year nationally, so he needs to take advantage now...same for Stevens.  They will still be good, but I think everyone underestimated Matt Howard and what he means to that team, this year and last.....

[bbtds]

Totally disagree with number 3.  Wood will be back after finding out what he needs to improve on......

Homer isn't ready to give it up yet...so he'll be back too....

Don't think Mack has played himself into the NBA, but he needs to leave this year.  I don't see them being anywhere near as good next year nationally, so he needs to take advantage now...same for Stevens.  They will still be good, but I think everyone underestimated Matt Howard and what he means to that team, this year and last.....

Interesting. That is exactly what many people, including Butler fans, said about Gordon Hayward last year yet the Bulldogs repeated their run to the National Championship game without Hayward. What makes Howard more valuable than Hayward now. I don't think you can count the Bulldogs or Coach Stevens out of anything in the post season.

[rlh]

I thought Howard was more valuable than people gave him credit for last year....He's a winner and one of the hardest workers I've ever watched.  I see him as a more skilled Brian Cardinal....by the way, the story is that if Scott Martin, who transferred to Notre Dame, had not signed with Purdue, Howard was their next guy.  That would have been interesting....all I'm saying about him is some guys are just winners overall, and I think he's one of them...just my opinion....

[zvillehaze]

I thought Howard was more valuable than people gave him credit for last year....He's a winner and one of the hardest workers I've ever watched.  I see him as a more skilled Brian Cardinal....by the way, the story is that if Scott Martin, who transferred to Notre Dame, had not signed with Purdue, Howard was their next guy.  That would have been interesting....all I'm saying about him is some guys are just winners overall, and I think he's one of them...just my opinion....

Just to clarify a bit, Purdue had its last scholarship offer out to both Martin and Howard ... Martin accepted first, so it was his. 

As for Mack, I don't necessarily buy that he has to go now.  His stock was high last summer, fell during the regular season, then elevated during the NCAAT. 

If he stays, he would likely get more exposure on the World University Team and have a chance to improve on his regular season performance.  I think he's an NBA player, but hope he stays for one more year.

[sectionee]

Completely agree with Detroit being the favorite next season.  CSU does have Brown coming back according to their assistant coach.  Outside of Butler and Detroit hogging the 1 and 2 seeds next year I'd say the rest of the league, at the moment, is mediocre.  I will wait and see what Wood decides before making any predictions on Valpo.

[motowntitan]

I wanted to clarify my post as well guys.  I thought I read on the NWtimes about Homer possibly retiring.  I don't want to be accused of starting rumors.

If Mack comes back, you still have Butler as  a favorite, until someone knocks them off 

[milanmiracle]

I am going to agree that if Mack is back, Butler is still the favorite. They have enough back to be a very tough out for most teams. Mack, Andrew Smith, Khyle Marshall, Stigall, Nored, and Hopkins. There's even mention in the Indy Star that that only Andrew Smith is a for sure starter if Mack leaves because of the incoming class. I am not expecting much of a falloff even though Matt Howard was a big part of who they were.

[blackpantheruwm]

We have already replaced Anthony Hill (or come close) with the JUCO big we brought in, Demetrius Harris.

Pending Jeter's possible departure (and perhaps his replacement if he does) the shooting guard we are recruiting visited last weekend.  If we get him, there is no fall-off.  He's a better, more consistent shooter than Boyle (44% from 3 last year in JUCO) and is very good on defense.

Should he come to Milwaukee, I'm picking us as champs next year.  And I haven't done that since the last time we went to the tournament - I usually put us below what I expect, but I wouldn't see a hole.

Of course, should Jeter leave, his recruitment becomes tougher, but if we hire the right guy (i.e. the guy recruiting him), he likely commits anyways.

Hill is tough to replace, but in Harris we think we have that replacement.

[blackpantheruwm]

Anybody who thinks Detroit will win the conference is forgetting that Ray Sr. is the coach, not Brad Stevens.

Any coach who has Eli Holman in the Horizon and doesn't run the ball through him on even 50% of possessions needs his head examined.