HL tourney Pomeroy probabilities???

[agibson]

Now according to the Pomeroy Probabilities Valpo and CSU together have a 76.2% chance of grabbing the title. That leaves the field with a whopping 23.8% chance of success. This is I believe a little lower than last year but still consistent with the over 75% probability of 1 of the top 2 teams winning the tournament.

Last year, the top two apparently had a 67% chance
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=657

Milwaukee, hosting the tournament, was apparently ranked 6th by Pomeroy.  But, because of home court and the like, was given a 24% chance to win.  Much less than Butler's 43%.

Let's hope Pomeroy's not so accurate this year!

[drewsaders11]

Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.

Unfortunately, I don't think the home court will be as much of an advantage as it might be if the students were not on spring break.

IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?  So unless VU puts in substantial bleachers on the concession side, VU's students will be relegated to those little metal bleachers.  Anyone know if we are going to have larger portables stands in place for the tournament? Maybe get the capacity up to at least 5,700?

What the 5 students that will be there.  They say dorms will be open for the tournament, but that's only a certain few (typical residential housing).  If you aren't in those dorms you have to go through all the paperwork and crap.  Typical student will just go home.

I was at this game, a junior at the time.  I drove to Valpo from Chicago, walked into the arena to sit in the student section, and was confused to be directed to the other side.  There were literally less than ten students sitting in the makeshift bleachers, amongst some other random/awkward/silent fans.  Valpo lost the game by 7.  If I'm not mistaken, the game was never really too close.  I was very disappointed in the atmosphere.  It was almost like a neutral site game.  Kind of sad.  However, that was when Valpo was the 6 seed, in the first round.   I would hope that students within a two hour radius would at least consider staying/going back.  Also, alumni are also going to be have a lot more motivation to return for a semi-final than a first round toss-up game for a subpar team.  I personally know a handful of people scattered from Fort Wayne to Milwaukee that are heading back for the matchup who didn't consider going back for the game in '10, and I would be there myself if I wasn't 8 hours away in Columbia, MO.  I am optimistic that the environment will still be beneficial to Valpo.  On the bright side, at least it is our players who get to sleep in their own beds/don't have to travel.

[agibson]

Of the students I quizzed yesterday, one has travel plans that are already set (Amtrak - not sure how _really_ set those are, but...), one's staying with the pep band (semi-final and final), I think one other _is_ staying (Chicagoland) for the semifinal.  No response from three others in the room.

[bbtds]

I think each one of us individually must take responsibility to make our section as noisy as possible. How does the student section get noisy? It starts with a group of 3 to 4 students who make a lot of noise. I think of the video of the "I believe that we will win" chant. It all started with 4 or 5 guys who dressed up and just got the whole thing rolling. Even if your section doesn't get excited at first they will be more inclined to join the larger crowd when the momentum turns to Valpo's favor if you were making some noise in your section earlier in the game. I see this every time I go to a Valpo game.

Make some noise at the ARC Saturday!!!!!

tee-shirts???

just kidding

[valpotx]

If we had a consistent student following like we did a decade ago, that 'I believe that we will win' chant would have been done.  Nowadays, it seems they are just so disinterested.  I can't believe I am saying this as a 30 year-old, but it's those darn iPads, PS3, text messaging, etc lol

[valporun]

If we had a consistent student following like we did a decade ago, that 'I believe that we will win' chant would have been done.  Nowadays, it seems they are just so disinterested.  I can't believe I am saying this as a 30 year-old, but it's those darn iPads, PS3, text messaging, etc lol

The "tweeting" #ValpoGameday takes away from the enjoyment and chanting of "I believe that we will win" too. I know when I'm sitting here at home on the chats during games, I miss a lot because my brain will be processing how to talk about what someone else is wanting to talk about with stats, or something about the game. These students seem to have a weird version of ADD/ADHD about needing to have something else to do besides just watch/pay attention to the game. They must be on  twitter, facebook, or doing something else at the same time. It seems some of them can't "just watch" because they don't know how. Hopefully, the winning attitude will change that in the coming years.

[Valpo89]

I think each one of us individually must take responsibility to make our section as noisy as possible. How does the student section get noisy? It starts with a group of 3 to 4 students who make a lot of noise. I think of the video of the "I believe that we will win" chant. It all started with 4 or 5 guys who dressed up and just got the whole thing rolling. Even if your section doesn't get excited at first they will be more inclined to join the larger crowd when the momentum turns to Valpo's favor if you were making some noise in your section earlier in the game. I see this every time I go to a Valpo game.

Make some noise at the ARC Saturday!!!!!

tee-shirts???

just kidding

Suggestions:
1. Face painting (gotta support your team)
2. TD and StLu lead sections B-C-D in cheers while wearing only speedos.

[covufan]

2. TD and StLu lead sections B-C-D in cheers while wearing only speedos.

Ewwwww

[ValpoHoops]

2. TD and StLu lead sections B-C-D in cheers while wearing only speedos.

Ewwwww

We want people to cheer...not leave 

[bbtds]

2. TD and StLu lead sections B-C-D in cheers while wearing only speedos.

Ewwwww

We want people to cheer...not leave 

Let's take up a collection to have Setshot fly in and join that speedo group. Then he could present Bryce with the first "Egg on Your Face" Award. Setshot could bow down in front of Bryce and wash his feet and present the check for completing the track around Brown Field to ML also. 

Then we'll send Bryce's shoes to Georgia State coach Ron Hunter so he can send them to Samaritan's Feet and Bryce can coach barefoot.

Maybe the speedo group can all wear powder blue jackets too.

[agibson]

Here's a fun piece from Pomeroy comparing his computer predictions for conference champions, as of the end of December, to the current reality.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/conference_champ_toteboard/

CSU had a 50% probability, according to Pomeroy's computer, of taking the top tournament seed.  Valpo was a big underdog at 4%.  The biggest underdog to clinch so far, but Michigan State will likely pass us.

[crusaderjoe]

Looks like Pomeroy blew up this weekend.

And by the way,

As much as I love VU, there is a part of me that would like to see the underdog Titans get on a roll, make some shots, get some bounces and maybe create the first 16vs 1 upset. But no, the double bye has already dictated their fate.

So...do you still want this to happen? 

If you need fan gear for tomorrow night's game, you can find it here:  http://detroitlockerroom.com/

(Edit:  First link didn't work, so this one should help ya instead. )