Potential seeding

[vu72]

I know, we still have one game to go, but I thought I'd take a look and speculate where we might end up if we win on Tuesday.

In general, given the committee's reluctance to say they rely on the rpi alone, I have found that the Sagarin's actually play out fairly closely to final seedings.

At the moment, we are ranked 120 and the Horizon is ranked 12th. Unfortunately, even though there are 20 conferences ranked lower, only 5 schools in the lead in their respective conferences are ranked lower than us at the moment.  That makes us a 15.  The key to final seeding is upsets in conference tourneys, and we ALL should be pulling for the under dog.

At the moment Murray State, Belmont, UNC-Asheville and I believe, Harvard, are in.  UNC-Asheville is slightly lower ranked than us and all the others are much better.  We'll see...

[vuweathernerd]

I know, we still have one game to go, but I thought I'd take a look and speculate where we might end up if we win on Tuesday.

In general, given the committee's reluctance to say they rely on the rpi alone, I have found that the Sagarin's actually play out fairly closely to final seedings.

At the moment, we are ranked 120 and the Horizon is ranked 12th. Unfortunately, even though there are 20 conferences ranked lower, only 5 schools in the lead in their respective conferences are ranked lower than us at the moment.  That makes us a 15.  The key to final seeding is upsets in conference tourneys, and we ALL should be pulling for the under dog.

At the moment Murray State, Belmont, UNC-Asheville and I believe, Harvard, are in.  UNC-Asheville is slightly lower ranked than us and all the others are much better.  We'll see...

harvard's not a lock yet. penn still has 1 game left, and if they win, there will be a one game playoff between the two to determine the bid.

[humbleopinion]

I'm a bit confused here.  Do four of the play-in teams have to be bubble teams who are not conference champions?  If not, we would have to be better than eight teams to earn a 15th seed, correct?

[motowntitan]

I'm a bit confused here.  Do four of the play-in teams have to be bubble teams who are not conference champions?  If not, we would have to be better than eight teams to earn a 15th seed, correct?

I know some are not a big fan of Wiki, but it represents the initial intent of the WWW when it was invented:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament

To quote:

"Eight teams—the four lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams—will play in the First Four"

I can't see either team from the Horizon being the lowest seeded automatic qualifiers.

[MattCarter]

In my honest opinion, trying not to take account membership in Crusader Nation, I think its frankly a slap in the face to put Valpo any lower than a 12 seed.

The committee says they don't go on RPI alone only as a guide, so prove it!  Valpo has beaten the 2 time national runner up 4 times in a row and dominated one of the top mid-major conferences in the country.

[swiftmutiny]

If we win Tuesday, I can see the selection committee putting Valpo at whatever seed necessary to play against Baylor in the first round. Within reason, of course. If it works out that Baylor is the 3rd seed, I would expect a 14 seed.

[StlVUFan]

In my honest opinion, trying not to take account membership in Crusader Nation, I think its frankly a slap in the face to put Valpo any lower than a 12 seed.

The committee says they don't go on RPI alone only as a guide, so prove it!  Valpo has beaten the 2 time national runner up 4 times in a row and dominated one of the top mid-major conferences in the country.

The fact that they are the 2-time national runner up has no bearing whatsoever.

I think it would be rational to hope for a 14 seed if we flatten Detroit Tuesday night.  Flattening Butler in addition would help.  It contributes to the "last 10 games" aspect.  But 12 seed?  Well, I think that would certainly be widely viewed as an absolute joke, and I think we could hardly expect otherwise.

[valpo92]

In my honest opinion, trying not to take account membership in Crusader Nation, I think its frankly a slap in the face to put Valpo any lower than a 12 seed. The committee says they don't go on RPI alone only as a guide, so prove it!  Valpo has beaten the 2 time national runner up 4 times in a row and dominated one of the top mid-major conferences in the country.

The fact that they are the 2-time national runner up has no bearing whatsoever. I think it would be rational to hope for a 14 seed if we flatten Detroit Tuesday night.  Flattening Butler in addition would help.  It contributes to the "last 10 games" aspect.  But 12 seed?  Well, I think that would certainly be widely viewed as an absolute joke, and I think we could hardly expect otherwise.

For a 12  to be remote possible, as VU72 said,  a ton of conference  tourney upsets would have to occur.  If we make it... 14 is reasonable...no worse than a 15.

[mj]

I'm expecting a 14 or 15 seed. Now we see the importance of the non-conference schedule. There's no upside to playing IPFW or IUPUI. Hopefully we can schedule some lower tier major conference schools next year.

[78crusader]

If we make it, a #15 seed awaits. The losses to IUPUI and IPFW were killers.

Paul

[drewsaders11]

In my honest opinion, trying not to take account membership in Crusader Nation, I think its frankly a slap in the face to put Valpo any lower than a 12 seed.

The committee says they don't go on RPI alone only as a guide, so prove it!  Valpo has beaten the 2 time national runner up 4 times in a row and dominated one of the top mid-major conferences in the country.

12? Really? Just based on beating Butler 3 times and their reputation last year?  We are going to be a fifteen unless upsets occur.  The number one in the MAAC, Iona, lost today.  They were going to be seeded as a 13 according to Lunardi.  The remaining teams in the MAAC have lower RPIs than us, except than Loyola MD, who is about the same RPI as us according to realtimerpi.com as of yesterday.  So this may help us, if that Loyola doesn't win and isn't looked at as slightly better than us. 

[vuweathernerd]

In my honest opinion, trying not to take account membership in Crusader Nation, I think its frankly a slap in the face to put Valpo any lower than a 12 seed.

The committee says they don't go on RPI alone only as a guide, so prove it!  Valpo has beaten the 2 time national runner up 4 times in a row and dominated one of the top mid-major conferences in the country.

12? Really? Just based on beating Butler 3 times and their reputation last year?  We are going to be a fifteen unless upsets occur.  The number one in the MAAC, Iona, lost today.  They were going to be seeded as a 13 according to Lunardi.  The remaining teams in the MAAC have lower RPIs than us, except than Loyola MD, who is about the same RPI as us according to realtimerpi.com as of yesterday.  So this may help us, if that Loyola doesn't win and isn't looked at as slightly better than us. 

unfortunately, illinois state lost to creighton in the mo valley today. so that doesn't help us. i don't like the prospect of being a lowly 15, but it's a whole lot more realistic than expecting a 12.

[valpopal]

I'm superstitious, so I won't speculate and jinx the team. 

[GoPanthers33]

Middle Tennessee State lost tonight in the 2nd round so the Sun Belt is now likely sending a team who would be seeded behind you.

[a3uge]

If we win Tuesday, I can see the selection committee putting Valpo at whatever seed necessary to play against Baylor in the first round. Within reason, of course. If it works out that Baylor is the 3rd seed, I would expect a 14 seed.

Or Michigan St... who looks like a 2-seed at this point. If Valpo wins, I really think they'll play either Michigan St or Baylor.

But lets look at the data. It's easier to think about building the tournament from the bottom up.

If each team with the highest RPI wins their tourney, Valpo would be looking at a 15 seed. Detroit probably a 15 seed as well.

Along with UNC Asheville which already won, here are the conferences that will finish with a champion with a higher RPI than Valpo (85).

Big South - UNC Asheville (109)
AEC
MEAC
NEC
Southland
SWAC
Sun Belt

Remember there's 6 16 seeds, and 4 15 seeds, etc. Don't forget about the play in game.

That's 8 right there, so in order for Valpo to bump up to a 14 seed, 2 conference tourneys would have to go to an underdog who is worse than Valpo. Theoretically, Valpo could even be a 9 seed... but don't expect Nebraska and DePaul to win their conference tournaments.

Here's some conferences that we could realistically see an upset:

Ivy League - no tournament, Penn (98) needs to beat Princeton and then a one game playoff against Harvard (36). Penn has won 7 straight, including one at Harvard. Penn/Valpo seeding could be troublesome. 
MAAC - tomorrow night Loyola (80) plays Fairfield (114) for the championship
Big Sky - Valpo could edge out top seed Montana (81), but Weber St (71) is also in the semis. The 3,4 seeds could also pull upsets.
Big West - Long Beach St (35) has the 1 seed, but it's a 3-round neutral-site tourney with every other team having high RPIs
Patriot League - Bucknell (82) and Lehigh (101) play each other for the championship. This is at Bucknell.

Stretch:

SoConn - Probably not as likely, since Davidson looked really good tonight, but Davidson (67) would have to lose to Western Carolina (224) in the championship game.
Summit - Oral Roberts (38) and South Dakota St (52) would have to both lose to some bad Summit teams.
WAC - Nevada (47) and New Mexico St (68) would have to both get knocked out.
MAC- Akron (62) and Buffalo (74) get triple byes, and Ohio (70) has a double bye. Kent St (104) could have a chance?

That leaves Valpo at a 13 as the absolute lowest (if true miracles happen) and 14 as a possibility (if we get a little help) and a 15 as the most probable landing-point.

With all that said, we could get a 14 seed if the selection committee likes a match-up (Baylor vs Valpo), or even if these upsets happen could still see a 15 if they want to see Michigan St vs Valpo. What's really terrible to think about, however, is what Butler would have been seeded if they had beat Valpo and then beat Detroit. Statistically, they probably would deserve no higher than a 15, but I could have seen them handing them a 12 or 13 seed out of nowhere.

[drewsaders11]

Very good analysis.  This is how we should be thinking about other conference tourneys at this point.  The only flaw in that onslaught of info is including the Great West.  They don't get an autobid to the NCAA tourney (too few teams in the conference, at 6, and not a conference for long enough, I believe, to qualify...their winner goes to the CIT). 

We should also be thinking about the flipside of this.  The more mediocre conference leaders that lose and get autobids to the NIT, the higher a possible NIT seed could be for us.  So, if the first place teams in the AE, MEAC, SWAC, etc. all lose, we would be looking at a 7 or 6 there, as compared to an 8 if we were one of the four worst 1 seeds to lose in the tourney.  Really, really hoping this doesn't matter and come in to play, but hey, the NIT is better than the CIT and CBI, right?

With all of that said, let's do work on Tuesday and let the chips fall where they may.

[a3uge]

Woops, the Great West was linked at the bottom of the conference tournament Wikipedia articles.

That leaves 3 needed upsets.

The NIT scenario is interesting, but let's note that mid majors don't really have Cinderella runs in the NIT. The NIT is usually dominated by power conferences. I'm not sure what seed Valpo would get in the NIT given a loss, but I would imagine it would be above a 5, not getting a home game first round.

[valporun]

drewsaders11, if we go to the NIT, we'll have a higher seed based on the conference RPI.

Also, in the analysis of conferences, the poster said that Akron, Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent State were in the WCC (West Coast Conference). They are actually in the Mid-American Conference (MAC).

I also feel that our NCAA bid could still be a 16 seed because of our previous tournament history. The committee does take that into consideration. Yes, the conference has had success the past two seasons, but that doesn't matter, it's the team representing your conference. Due to our tournament history, I don't see us being any higher than 15 this year, even if so many of you want the Baylor or Michigan St. matchup because of a storyline with the opponent. I just don't see it happening though. We will have to travel, and I don't think we will get a favorable bracket matchup either.

[vusupporter]

I also feel that our NCAA bid could still be a 16 seed because of our previous tournament history. The committee does take that into consideration.

False.  Absolutely, patently false.  If you've read ANY of the articles written by people involved in the numerous mock selection processes over the last few years, you would realize that the exact opposite is the case.

[valporun]

Mock selection is just that, "Mock selection". It's just like "mock drafts" for fantasy sports, they just projections to show newbies how to draft, and work the system to your advantage. It doesn't mean they actually follow the rules used in the mocks to make the final decisions. The committee will show how they play the rules, but it doesn't mean they will follow them to the same "T" as they do in the Mock selection the writers talk about. The NCAA will look at tournament history, otherwise we wouldn't have had two years of 16 seeds, like I posted above.

[agibson]

otherwise we wouldn't have had two years of 16 seeds, like I posted above.

Was that in the other thread?  As I probably replied there, we haven't had two 16 seeds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valparaiso_Crusaders_men%27s_basketball#All_time_tournament_results

[chef]

History shows the 14, 15, and 16 seeds are mostly in direct order of their RPI. Since very few of these teams have had any success in the NCAA tournament, it wouldn't make any sense to look at these schools past history. In fact, of the 10 projected 15 and 16 seeds this year, only Valpo and Bucknell have won a tournament game in the past 40 years.

[a3uge]

I also feel that our NCAA bid could still be a 16 seed because of our previous tournament history. The committee does take that into consideration. Yes, the conference has had success the past two seasons, but that doesn't matter, it's the team representing your conference. Due to our tournament history, I don't see us being any higher than 15 this year, even if so many of you want the Baylor or Michigan St. matchup because of a storyline with the opponent. I just don't see it happening though. We will have to travel, and I don't think we will get a favorable bracket matchup either.

Not going to be a 16 seed. Not, at least, for this reason. Why the heck would they take a 2004 tournament with a different coach in a different conference into consideration over the actual results of the season. I don't know how anyone could possible think that and defend it logically. There's no evidence to suggest the selection committee holds 8+ year grudges against teams who have lost tournament games in the past (as 15 and 16 seeds). Of course they didn't win as 15 and 16 seeds, not many do. Are you saying that the selection committee, when looking at Creighton for example, will look at their 2005 and 2003 tournament results, and dock them a couple seeds because of losses that came from a complete different team?

Valpo isn't going to be a 16 seed.

AEC - Stony Brook (140) vs Vermont (155) isn't going to produce a seed higher than Valpo.
Big South - UNC Asheville (109) isn't going to be a higher seed than Valpo.
MEAC - Worst conference in NCAA D-1 basketball. Savannah St (181) or Norfolk St (131) neither of these teams have a chance of being seeded lower than Valpo.
Southland Conference - Another terrible conference. UT-Arlington (96) or Stephen F Austin (200) neither of these teams are going to be seeded lower than Valpo
SWAC - Miss Valley St (156) or Texas Southern (241) again, terrible conference with two weak frontrunners.

These two conferences could possibly contain a team that ends up seeded lower than Valpo, but it would be very unlikely due to being in a weaker conference compared to the Horizon.

NEC - Long Island (91) if they win the tourney could be a lower seed, but it would not jump them up in the RPI much at all. The Northeaster Conference is also pretty bad.
Sun Belt - Denver (89) if they win the tourney could be a lower seed, and they have a couple big wins in their resume, but they couldn't manage to win the regular season in a pretty bad Sun Belt conference.

This would assume a Bucknell (82) in the Patriot League gets a lower seed, and Montana (81) in the Big Sky also gets a lower seed.  Both conferences are lower than the Horizon.

This also, of course, would assume that no upsets happen in the conference tournaments. If last year is any prediction of conference tournament upsets, I would almost lean more toward a 14 than a 15, but definitely not a 16.

[chef]

Throw in the MAAC as well now that Iona lost in the semis.

[vusupporter]

The NCAA will look at tournament history, otherwise we wouldn't have had two years of 16 seeds, like I posted above.

They obviously looked at tournament history in 1999, the year after we won two games in the tournament.  That's why we got something like an 11 seed that year, right?  Oh wait, that's right, we got a 15.