Where will Butler finish in first year of A-10 play (men's basketball)

[oklahomamick]

Butler finished 4th in the HL this year.  I expect them to be a little better due to Clarke.  However, I don't see them finishing in the top 4 next year in the A10.  Butler will miss the NCAA again and probably for the next several years. 

Where are they going to finish next year in the A10? 

[vu72]

The following year they lose Smith and Clarke.  Not sure who they have coming in but guys like Fromm and Hopkins need to start living up to expectations for them to progress.  What ever you feel about transfers, Butler still seems to be relying on freshman (other than Clarke) and so while we are adding top 100 players with maturity and big conference experience), they aren't.  They've got some very good kids coming in like Dunham but I just don't see them being near the top of the A-10, with more likely an NIT bid in their future.

[covufan]

Atlantic 10    RPI Rk    Conf    All Temple   20    13-4     24-7 Saint Louis   31    13-5     24-7 Xavier   41    12-7     21-12 St. Joseph's   69    10-8     20-13 St. Bonaventure   73    13-6     20-11 Massachusetts   77    11-8     22-11 Dayton   81    10-8     20-12 La Salle   87    10-8     21-12 Duquesne   109    7-10     15-15 Richmond   126    7-10     16-16 Charlotte   167    5-12     13-17 Geo. Washington   187    5-12     10-21 Fordham   240    3-13     10-19 Rhode Island   256    4-12     7-24           Butler   116    13-8     18-14

I tried several times to get the above table with RPI rankings for A-10 and Butler this past season, but I don't seem to have the touch. 

This topic/poll should be merged with another topic of the same nature.

[VULB#62]

HL next year (12-13) and A-10 13-14.  I'm thinking you meant they'll do a little better next year but don't see them in the A-10 top 4 the year after that, right?  I agree -- that'll be a tough transition regardless of talent.  No matter what they say about the travel, year one will be a tough adjustment for that program.  Plus they have to adjust to their new neighbors -- moving into a new neighborhood, whether it's the family or a university basketball team, takes some adjusting no matter who you are.  Year two they will have digested their lessons-learned and their focus will be better.   

[StlVUFan]

Butler finished 4th in the HL this year.  I expect them to be a little better due to Clarke.  However, I don't see them finishing in the top 4 next year in the A10.  Butler will miss the NCAA again and probably for the next several years. 

See my signature quote below.

[sectionee]

who cares? I think some people need to stop worrying about Butler and focus on our own team.

[VULB#62]

I don't think it is worrying so much as interesting dialogue and speculation.  But your comment, SectionEE, made me think back to Valpo's move out of the Mid-Continent.  It's been 5 years now.  Finally, VU is in the mix in some of the HL sports.  It took time. It's just fun to think about this whole thing.  Once Butler is gone, they're gone.  At that point, yeah, who cares.  Butcha wonder.

[vuweathernerd]

who cares? I think some people need to stop worrying about Butler and focus on our own team.

thank you! not to mention the fact that they don't leave until the 2013-14 school year.

[valpo04]

who cares? I think some people need to stop worrying about Butler and focus on our own team.

thank you! not to mention the fact that they don't leave until the 2013-14 school year.

It always amuses me when people get bent out of shape over what people want to talk about, especially in the "post-basketball season" downtime.

[valporun]

I'm not concerned with what Butler does in the A-10 in 2013-2014, but what will Butler do in 2012-2013 in its last season in the HL?

[IrishDawg]

There are a lot of factors that are going to go into deciding how good Butler will be both next season and the year after.

As poorly as they played offensively last year, the fact that they finished in a tie for 3rd is fairly miraculous.  However, unless some major improvements are made in the offseason, especially by the forwards, they simply didn't match up very well with Valpo's or Detroit's front lines last season.  I wouldn't anticipate that to change this year, at least against Valpo (and probably against Detroit as well).  The guards will be much better offensively with Dunham and Clarke, but it was Valpo's ball movement that killed Butler last year, so it'll be interesting to see what happens there.

They lose Clarke, Smith and Stigall after this season.  And while I do believe Clarke could be the best player in the conference, I think once this team gets a legitimate forward (Nolan Berry, who has committed, is a 6'8/9 forward that is like Matt Howard with a more developed face-up and 3 point game at this point), then they'll have a chance to be really good.  Right now, their forwards either aren't tough enough (Smith, Fromm) or not skilled enough (Marshall, Woods, Jones) to really put any pressure on teams with a good front line.

I expect the top 4 spots to be fairly tight, or Valpo might just flat out run away with next year's league title, but I expect it to go something like this:

1. Valpo
2. Detroit
3. Butler
4. Green Bay
5. CSU
6. YSU
7. Milwaukee
8. Loyola
9. Wright State
10. UIC

[vu72]

Interesting and fair analysis Dawg.  Presume Berry will be a freshman, correct?  If so he had better be a quick study as his second year you lose Marshall and Hopkins and probably others.  No different than any other program.  Bringing in established (older) players as Valpo is doing somewhat mitigates the startup typical freshman reaction to drastically enhanced compitition.  However, bringing in transfers can also bring on chemistry problems particularly, as others have pointed out, when a sophomore, who has worked hard to improve his game, now realizes that his efforts won't be rewarded with playing time because the coach has just recruited over him via a major conference tranfer (see Jay Harris and Richie Edwards).

I like dawg's analysis and without a ton of personal research I would think it is on the mark.

[IrishDawg]

Interesting and fair analysis Dawg.  Presume Berry will be a freshman, correct?  If so he had better be a quick study as his second year you lose Marshall and Hopkins and probably others.  No different than any other program.  Bringing in established (older) players as Valpo is doing somewhat mitigates the startup typical freshman reaction to drastically enhanced compitition.  However, bringing in transfers can also bring on chemistry problems particularly, as others have pointed out, when a sophomore, who has worked hard to improve his game, now realizes that his efforts won't be rewarded with playing time because the coach has just recruited over him via a major conference tranfer (see Jay Harris and Richie Edwards).

I like dawg's analysis and without a ton of personal research I would think it is on the mark.

Yes, Berry will be a freshman for the 2013-2014 season, and like Dunham is a top 100 recruit.  There are still two scholarships open for the 2013 class for Butler.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

They lose Clarke, Smith and Stigall after this season.  And while I do believe Clarke could be the best player in the conference

I just looked up Rotnei Clarke...and...um...am I THAT crazy to have assumed a star basketball player with the inventive first name of Rotnei was not in fact a Caucasian?

</floored>

[oklahomamick]

Yes, Rotnei is a whitey, from small town Oklahoma.  I watched him play high school and AAU in Tulsa.  The kid has range and create his own shot. I'm sure it was very difficult for him to watch Butler last year struggle from behind the 3 point line. 

[bbtds]

Actually I heard Rotnei was the country/hip hop star at Butler. Knows how to sing both and is very good at it. I heard he was really good at hitting the 3 highest notes. 

[zvillehaze]

Interesting and fair analysis Dawg.  Presume Berry will be a freshman, correct?  If so he had better be a quick study as his second year you lose Marshall and Hopkins and probably others.  No different than any other program.  Bringing in established (older) players as Valpo is doing somewhat mitigates the startup typical freshman reaction to drastically enhanced compitition.  However, bringing in transfers can also bring on chemistry problems particularly, as others have pointed out, when a sophomore, who has worked hard to improve his game, now realizes that his efforts won't be rewarded with playing time because the coach has just recruited over him via a major conference tranfer (see Jay Harris and Richie Edwards).

I like dawg's analysis and without a ton of personal research I would think it is on the mark.

The "recruiting freshman vs. transfers" debate has been brought up by vu72 in several places, so I thought I'd add a few thoughts on the topic.

First, recruiting high school kids doesn't necessarily mean that you're always playing young guys.  In a perfect world, those guys are developing for a few years and then contributing as upper classmen.  Butler did play a lot of young guys this past season and they paid the price with inconsistent play.  However, that was due in part to losing two guys to the NBA who would have been seniors.  That's not an excuse, but merely an explanation of why guys were being called upon to contribute earlier than they would have been had those guys stayed.

Secondly, I'm not as quick to proclaim that Valpo's success last season was attributable to the roster turnover and adding transfers.  I think it should be noted that the heart and soul of that team (IMO) were non-transfers ... Broekhoff, Van Wijk, Buggs and Kenney.  The transfers filled some holes, but I think the foundation was already there.

There's another side to vu72's "our 22 year-old transfers are better than their freshmen" argument.  To make my point, I'll use an example from your team.  During the '09-'10 season, Valpo's roster included a transfer in Cory Johnson who was bigger, stronger and more productive than an unknown freshman from Australia.  Even though Broekhoff might not have been 100% ready as a freshman, I'd argue that he's had a pretty good career at Valpo.  Instead of comparing what transfers do as seniors to what high school recruits do as freshman, it might be more fair to compare what the players contribute to the program over the entirety of their time at the school.

Despite the large number of transfers available, I expect Butler to continue their focus on recruting top-150 kids directly out of high school.  As with everything else, time will tell which strategy is more successful!

[vu72]

Good and fair post haze.  It's not like Valpo is abandoning the freshman concept.  Fenandez came in as a freshman (had to sit a year thanks to our pals at the NCAA) and we bring in two very solid kids the following year with more to come.  The transfer idea just eliminates the need to rely on freshman unless they can show the ability to contribute right a way.

Interesting debate--we'll see. 

[wh]

Despite the large number of transfers available, I expect Butler to continue their focus on recruting top-150 kids directly out of high school.

Rotnei Clarke notwithstanding

Seriously, Clarke will be an exciting player to watch.  It will be interesting to see how Stevens uses him.  They need someone to run the offense, but the book on him is that he's primarily a shooting guard and isn't quick enough to guard the 1.  Time will tell.  Oh, and jilted Arkansas fans call him a drama queen that created a lot of chemistry problems.  Apparently, Daddy and Uncle (his high school coach) stuck their noses into things a lot. 

[covufan]

Even with Butler going to the A-10 a year earlier than expected, I don't see them doing any better than in 13-14.  I say middle of the pack, looking for an NIT bid.  I don't see how they can be in the top 3 of the A-10, but then most guessers didn't have VU winning the Horizon last year either.

[Nildogg]

Not that I expect much more, but you guys are blinded by your VU passion.  Butler is going to be much improved this year with the addition of an outside game; and by addition, I mean with one of the best three point shooters in the nation in Clarke, and possibly the best outside shooter coming out of HS in Dunham.  Have you any idea what a completely one dimensional offense did to our team last year???

Can't wait to see this BU team on the floor... apparently it will be a shock to all of you, even if it won't be while ruining your expected march to the tournament this year!

[valpotx]

We will see Nildogg...your board is blinded just as much with Butler passion.  You get 2 national title game appearances and automatically assume that you have been there forever, and always will be.  You are not Duke, yet a lot of your fans put you in the same league.

[Nildogg]

Haven't been there forever, but if you look at the last 10-15 years (Since our current "system" has been in place), its not like the 2 Championship game runs were the only success.  Take those out of the picture, and you still have Sweet 16, and tournament appearances that would make any other Mid Major more than proud. Not to mention more than enough success against the power conferences during the regular season, that added up have to nearly trump the aggregate of the rest of the conference at the time.  Sorry if you think its obnoxious or pompous or whatever you may call it to mention that - but its the truth.

And yes, our board is full of pride - but if you look at it, its not like we're bashing everyone else, its just a bunch of pollyanna's that probably piss you off with their unbridled optimism and expectations!

People always hate the winners, the people that get all the limelight...  we're moving on.  Who will your fellow Horizon comrades hate now??

[FWalum]

Not that I expect much more, but you guys are blinded by your VU passion.  Butler is going to be much improved this year with the addition of an outside game; and by addition, I mean with one of the best three point shooters in the nation in Clarke, and possibly the best outside shooter coming out of HS in Dunham.  Have you any idea what a completely one dimensional offense did to our team last year???

Can't wait to see this BU team on the floor... apparently it will be a shock to all of you, even if it won't be while ruining your expected march to the tournament this year!

I may have a little different take on Butler than many of the VU fans here.  I hope that Butler goes and does well in the A-10. Do I think that will happen next year?  Not likely.  Butler will have a better outside offensive game but they will miss Nored big time.  Nothing kills the opponents offense better than great ball pressure at the point and Nored was one of the best. Rotnei Clarke is a great shooter, but there are a lot of guys who shoot the 3 at 43.8%, and who is to say that he will shoot that percentage this year. Broekhoff shot 44.8% his sophomore year and only shot 36.4% this year.  Butler also has to face an entirely new conference of 15 teams.  As Stevens has indicated, this will be extremely difficult and will put Butler at a decided disadvantage in the A-10 for at least this season if not more.  If they finish in the top 4 of the conference it would be an outstanding accomplishment.  I think that it was a mistake for the HL to push Butler out early, but I wish them well as they travel to the east coast.  I will probably have to root against them when the play against GW or my daughter will give me grief.   

[valpotx]

I have nothing against Butler as a university.  After all, they were my second choice of schools, as I turned down their baseball/academic scholarship money for Valpo's.  I just dislike many of the fans that think they are so much better than anyone they play.  The entitled attitude is what bugged me when I was in school, and has continued to show since then.