2012-2013 Schedule?

[swiftmutiny]

That was a bit of a misleading title for Valpo fans. For a second there I almost thought we had scheduled UCLA. Wrong Drew, whoops.

Nice to have the Saint Louis game confirmed.

[sectionee]

The schedule is a competitive one.  The opportunity is there for Valpo to make a name for themselves before conference play even begins.  Lets hope they are able to take advantage and win the majority of these.

[SadersofthelostArc]

I think it is a pretty good schedule, too.  However, it's a schedule that the Saders will have to almost go undefeated against to get at-large consideration.  There is no school on the schedule that would be considered an "expected" loss, i.e. Ohio State, Arizona, etc.  I hope we're not leaving ourselves too little room for error.


Hypothetical: We go 14-2 in the Horizon.  We go 10-2 in non-conference (assuming 12 games, could be a bit different...we have losses to St Louis and Murray State.  We lose a tight game in the championship...so we finish 25-5 with our best wins coming against New Mexico, Nebraska, Brackbuster game.  How confident are you guys that we would get an at-large with that resume?  I'm not very confident.

[FWalum]

I think it is a pretty good schedule, too.  However, it's a schedule that the Saders will have to almost go undefeated against to get at-large consideration.  There is no school on the schedule that would be considered an "expected" loss, i.e. Ohio State, Arizona, etc.  I hope we're not leaving ourselves too little room for error.


Hypothetical: We go 14-2 in the Horizon.  We go 10-2 in non-conference (assuming 12 games, could be a bit different...we have losses to St Louis and Murray State.  We lose a tight game in the championship...so we finish 25-5 with our best wins coming against New Mexico, Nebraska, Brackbuster game.  How confident are you guys that we would get an at-large with that resume?  I'm not very confident.

Not something that you can just go by wins and losses.  RPI and Sagarin will play a big roll and those are affected by how everyone else on the schedule performs.

[vuweathernerd]

I think it is a pretty good schedule, too.  However, it's a schedule that the Saders will have to almost go undefeated against to get at-large consideration.  There is no school on the schedule that would be considered an "expected" loss, i.e. Ohio State, Arizona, etc.  I hope we're not leaving ourselves too little room for error.


Hypothetical: We go 14-2 in the Horizon.  We go 10-2 in non-conference (assuming 12 games, could be a bit different...we have losses to St Louis and Murray State.  We lose a tight game in the championship...so we finish 25-5 with our best wins coming against New Mexico, Nebraska, Brackbuster game.  How confident are you guys that we would get an at-large with that resume?  I'm not very confident.

Not something that you can just go by wins and losses.  RPI and Sagarin will play a big roll and those are affected by how everyone else on the schedule performs.

agreed. but with how road-heavy our non-con schedule seems to be, that could be points in our favor, assuming all else plays out like we're expecting.

my question - how tight are the games we lose to slu and murray, and who/where do we lose to in the conference sched, and likewise, how close are the games? ass-whippings won't help, but tight games against top-50 teams, even if they're losses, could demonstrate to the committee come march that we're capable of close games.

[vu72]

I would think that Valpo won't be beat up by anyone on this schedule.  The early season games will tell us a lot.  First, in spite of all we have coming back, we will still be relying on Capo and Vashil to contribute right a way.  Neither have played college basketball either in quite some time or not at all.  It is unlikely that we will have LaVonte till the start of the conference schedule.  He could take us up a full notch.  It is also unclear if we will have Alex Rossi, who could also elevate the team via his shooting and ability to remove a double team from Rowdy.

I think it is amusing that Butler won't schdule us but the conference favorite and pre-season top 25 team will.  As we won't be at full strength, I don't think we will beat St. Louis, New Mexico or Murray State on the road.

[justducky]

I would think that Valpo won't be beat up by anyone on this schedule.  The early season games will tell us a lot.  First, in spite of all we have coming back, we will still be relying on Capo and Vashil to contribute right a way.  Neither have played college basketball either in quite some time or not at all.  It is unlikely that we will have LaVonte till the start of the conference schedule.  He could take us up a full notch.  It is also unclear if we will have Alex Rossi, who could also elevate the team via his shooting and ability to remove a double team from Rowdy.

I think it is amusing that Butler won't schdule us but the conference favorite and pre-season top 25 team will.  As we won't be at full strength, I don't think we will beat St. Louis, New Mexico or Murray State on the road.

Spotted somewhere a tentative Dec 29 date for Murray, wonder if we might not head from there to New Mexico. Would think that St Lou and Missouri St would also be on one swing and pre x-mas would work out great for LaVonte. Help me here with any imformation you have on dates.

I would think that our 4 game win streak against Butler will bring them back to the ARC for revenge some day, just not this year.

[crusadermoe]

You're probably right.  It will be a great ride though.   

Great to see scheduling of several good yet beatable Top 100 teams.    As some have said on the board we often in our history played teams that either had "Top Ten" blue-blood talent.......or were in the bottom half or even third of RPI rankings.

I'm excited to see it all unfold. 

[vu84v2]

According to the Murray State forum, the Valpo at Murray State game is on Dec. 29th.

In regards to other comments...I want Valpo to get return games since I want Valpo to have a strong home schedule year in and year out.  Far and away, the best environment and excitement at Valpo for basketball is when they get a good opponent for a home game.  With the possible exception of the bracketbuster, I wonder if any game will generate a high level of enthsiasm (though being undefeated or having one loss going into conference play would do that too).  The school can try all they can to market Detroit or Cleveland State...but it just won't generate the same enthusiasm as Butler or a very good nonconference team would generate (ok, maybe if the Detroit game is on the weekend or a Friday night and is at home - it could generate a good level of enthusiasm).  However, my guess is that there will be no more than 2000 people in the ARC for any of these non-conference games.

[vufan75]

From the NW Indiana Times sports blog as written by Paul Oren about the coming season's men's basketball schedule, and why it is "smart scheduling" for this season.

http://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/valparaiso-university/drew-scheduling-smart/article_b1b50196-d5a7-11e1-b5c4-001a4bcf887a.html

Drew scheduling smart

July 24, 2012 10:53 am  •  By Paul Oren pgmado@gmail.com

It could still be a few weeks before any official word comes down about the 2012-13 Valparaiso men's basketball schedule, but everything looks to be in place right now according to ESPN's Andy Katz.

The Crusaders are set to play Murray State, New Mexico, St. Louis, Oakland, Kent State, Missouri State and Nebraska on the road. Home games will include IPFW, IUPUI, Chicago State, Bethune-Cookman/Nebraska-Omaha and Georgia Southern.

The immediate uproar from fans has been that the home schedule is very weak this season and that is a correct statement. That doesn't mean it's a bad thing. Valparaiso coach Bryce Drew is smart to schedule the way he has this season.

I don't think it's going out on a limb to say that expectations for this team are higher than they've been since 2001-02. The Horizon League constantly talks about being "built for At-Large" and Drew has set up a schedule that mirrors that statement. If the Crusaders falter again in the Horizon League title game, they will have already had the chance to earn quality road wins against some of the Top RPI teams in the country.

Let's not kid ourselves. Scheduling Duke and North Carolina looks good on the schedule, but those games aren't truly winnable unless something magical happens. Teams like New Mexico, Murray State and St. Louis, all conference favorites who are expected to be in the NCAA tournament, those games are winnable.

Now let's get to home vs. road. Road wins against quality competition are huge when it comes to determining At-Large bids. This particular Valparaiso team has the best chance of any to earn an At-Large bid. I think it's safe to say that next season's team, without Broekhoff, Van Wijk, Buggs, Kenney, Bogan and Boggs, will likely not be built to win an at-large bid. That team will be stocked with freshmen who will now get the chance to play some big teams at home to cut their teeth. Broekhoff and Co. are good enough to win on the road. They don't need the advantage of playing at home as much as they need to be able to capitalize on the disadvantage of playing on the road. The 2013-14 squad will be the opposite.

I know the ARC schedule doesn't look great this year, but the team does and getting to the NCAA tournament is what matters. This schedule is setup to do that.

[vu72]

I still don't quite understand why Paul doesn't think the year after this one will be a good to great team.  Sure we will be relying on freshman as BACKUPS and yes, this year's team will be as deep as any we have had since Nuness/Barton et al.  Still, the following year will feature Capobianco, Dority, Coleman, Rossi and Chadwick and Fernandez. That's 6'11",6'9", 6'6" up front with Coleman and Dority in the backcourt. We will still have Tommy Kurth (according to the eligibility chart) so we will have seven VERY experienced players.  THEN, we add the freshman and who know who else. So what is the typical rotation? Seven or eight.  If the freshman get playing time it is because they are THAT good, not because we will need to rely on them.

[sectionee]

Probably because those five you have listed as starters have played 0 minutes for Valparaiso to this point and haven't proven a thing at the college level.  Kurth won't play, I assume he is around more as a player-coach during practice.  This year's team should be very good, the year after has potential, but lets not get ahead of ourselves yet.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

vu72, couldn't agree with you more.  while it won't likely be as good as this coming year, it's not going to fall off a cliff.  each of those transfers comes from an excellent program, and had recruiting profiles to match (both times they were recruited!).  Add those to Paul's self-admitted "greatest freshman class ever", and


WE ROLLIN'

[vu72]

Probably because those five you have listed as starters have played 0 minutes for Valparaiso to this point and haven't proven a thing at the college level.  Kurth won't play, I assume he is around more as a player-coach during practice.  This year's team should be very good, the year after has potential, but lets not get ahead of ourselves yet.

Well ee, you can't have it both ways. Oren said "I don't think it's going out on a limb to say that expectations for this team are higher than they've been since 2001-02"  To get there you have to count on significant contributions from both Capo and Dority and probably Vashil and Coleman as Edwards in gone and so is Harris. If you expect these guys to contribute this year then why not carry that over to the next?  Adding a Pac 12 and Conference USA player really can't be too bad a thing unless Bryce is just way off on their abilities.  What do you think??

[sectionee]

What part of Capo's game that you have seen do you like best?  How about Vashil or Dority or Coleman or Rossi or Chadwick?  Getting positive contributions from these guys this year coming off the bench shouldn't be too hard to get against other team's benches.  No doubt these guys were solid coming out of HS, but there is a reason they didn't make it at their first school.  Bryce probably has the edge over me in the talent evaluation category, probably.  I just want to see these guys in action before I start touting 2013-2014 as great team.

[bbtds]

What part of Capo's game that you have seen do you like best?  How about Vashil or Dority or Coleman or Rossi or Chadwick?  Getting positive contributions from these guys this year coming off the bench shouldn't be too hard to get against other team's benches.  No doubt these guys were solid coming out of HS, but there is a reason they didn't make it at their first school.  Bryce probably has the edge over me in the talent evaluation category, probably.  I just want to see these guys in action before I start touting 2013-2014 as great team.

Yes, the same was true of Johnson & Wood and those transfers didn't turn out too bad.

[sectionee]

Not saying they won't be good, I am just saying I want to see hem in action before declaring the 2013-2014 team will be great.

[SadersofthelostArc]

sectionee is right...we are all making a lot of predictions based on players we have not seen play.  I do expect them to be really good, based on pedigree, but maybe we should wait to talk about 2013-2014 til we see some of these guys play this year.

[vu72]

Fair enough.  My point really, was just that Oren seems to be discounting them already when he said: That team will be stocked with freshmen who will now get the chance to play some big teams at home to cut their teeth. Broekhoff and Co. are good enough to win on the road. They don't need the advantage of playing at home as much as they need to be able to capitalize on the disadvantage of playing on the road. The 2013-14 squad will be the opposite.

I'll be happy to wait!   

[bbtds]

Fair enough.  My point really, was just that Oren seems to be discounting them already when he said: That team will be stocked with freshmen who will now get the chance to play some big teams at home to cut their teeth. Broekhoff and Co. are good enough to win on the road. They don't need the advantage of playing at home as much as they need to be able to capitalize on the disadvantage of playing on the road. The 2013-14 squad will be the opposite.

I'll be happy to wait!   

By gosh if Butler can solve all their shooting woes with players they haven't seen play yet then Valpo can count on players that we haven't seen play yet to win the HL regular season title. 

[vu84v2]

While I appreciate the sincerity of Paul Oren's article, there are several problems that I have with the line of thinking:

1.  While there are "hints" at a better home schedule next year, where is the commitment?  As a fan, my expectation would be no less than two out of four (between Murray State, St. Louis, Nebraska and New Mexico) have games in the ARC next year.  Fans should be even more dissapointed in Valpo's scheduling efforts if these questions are not directly answered when the schedule is released.
2.  It will be very hard to believe in any sincerity on the part of the basketball program if they try to promote this nonconference home schedule as anything meaningful.  You have several of the absolute worst D1 teams in the nation coming to the ARC (in my view, Chicago State is THE worst) and no nonconference home games against teams that are even close to interesting.
3.  Everyone agrees that this is an exciting team that could do a lot of great things...that is great.  But after a poor nonconference home schedule last year (remember that the Duquense and Akron games were when school was not in session and two conference games were during Christmas break), the fans are rewarded with a FAR worse home schedule with no opportunity to see the team against good (or even decent) non-conference opponents.  Furthermore, there is a potential good bracketbuster game - but the honest truth is that only counteracts losing the Butler game.

Again, I hope that Valpo has a great season and wins all of these road games and gets great national respect from it.  But with the possible exception of the Northern Illinois game (due to its uniqueness), does anyone think that any game will have more than 2000 people in the ARC prior to the conference schedule?

[swiftmutiny]

Again, I hope that Valpo has a great season and wins all of these road games and gets great national respect from it.  But with the possible exception of the Northern Illinois game (due to its uniqueness), does anyone think that any game will have more than 2000 people in the ARC prior to the conference schedule?

Yes, absolutely. The only game last year that didn't have over 2,000 in attendance was the game against Holy Cross, which isn't even an NCAA school, and that was by a slim margin (1,957). Given last year's accomplishments and all of the expectations surrounding this year's team, I doubt there will be a single sub 2k game unless we've scheduled Helen Keller's School for the Deaf and Blind on Christmas morning.

[sectionee]

I think they will draw well, but not great for this home schedule, not including the conference games or bracketbuster.  The marketing department has their work cut out for them.  It would have been great to schedule a good opponent at home to get the interest in the team up, but lets be real...no team wants to come into the ARC this year.

[historyman]

I think it's time for Crusader nation to hit the road.

Neither Murray, KY or St Louis are that far from Valpo. I remember one poster saying that you just go south on I-57 and you end up in Murray.

If it happens Pittsburgh wouldn't be that far either.

[justducky]

I think it's time for Crusader nation to hit the road

I might have to skip several of those home games and maybe shoot for Lincoln. I think that Pitt is now off the itinerary.