2012-2013 Schedule?

[justducky]

Given last year's accomplishments and all of the expectations surrounding this year's team, I doubt there will be a single sub 2k game unless we've scheduled Helen Keller's School for the Deaf and Blind on Christmas morning.

OK,  how did you find out about the Helen Keller game? We all worked very hard to try to keep that one item under our hats to be released as a special Santa Secret Surprise. Expect to hear from campus security tomorrow concerning the source of the leak.

[historyman]

Quote from: justducky on Today at 09:54:37 PM

OK,  how did you find out about the Helen Keller game? We all worked very hard to try to keep that one item under our hats to be released as a special Santa Secret Surprise. Expect to hear from campus security tomorrow concerning the source of the leak.


I heard it was the maintenance dept at Valpo. Yep, there was a plumbing problem in the basketball offices at the ARC. These plumbers, see, broke into the offices and were making sure the coaches were doing their job to get their team re-elected, er, I mean win enough to take first place in the conference. They are calling it "ARCgate." I heard the plumbers recorded an 18 1/2 minute conversation between Coach Drew and the Helen Keller School for the Deaf and Blind but somehow the whole conversation got erased. But the Valpo womens BB team did brag that their trip to China was the greatest achievement by the athletic dept.

[vu84v2]

Please note that I said 2000 people actually attending the game - not the (as previously noted on this forum by many) fictitious attendance that is reported.  When the chairbacks are 2/3 full of people, the lower bleachers are half full of people, and there are few people in the upper deck bleachers...there are not more than 2000 in attendance.  That will happen a lot with this non-conference schedule.

[zvillehaze]

Bryce has done a nice job of beefing up the schedule ... the home schedule may not be glamorous, but fans need to understand that getting big name teams to the ARC is not an easy task.

As for attendance, I would think that the buzz and expectations around this team would ensure good crowds no matter who the opponents might be.  Ticket prices are extremely reasonable and students get in free, so there really isn't any excuse for fans not supporting a team of this caliber.

I noticed that Oren forgot to list the home game against Northern Illinois, so here's a quick summary based on the information in his article:
Horizon League games - 16
Non-con home games - 7 (IPFW, IUPUI, NIU, Chicago St, Bethune/UNO, GA Southern and BracketBuster)
Non-con road games - 7 (Murray, UNM, SLU, Oakland, Kent, Missouri St and Nebraska)

If all that is right, that's 30 games.  The limit is 27 + up to 4 more in an exempt tournament, so Valpo may still have one more game to add (assuming that they'll get 4 games from the Nebraska "exempt tournament").  Anyone have details on that?  So far, it appears the Nebraska, Chic St and Bethune/UNO games are part of that tourney, but since Kent State was mentioned earlier, is that game also part of the tournament?  I guess we'll find out as schedules get released.

Based on that schedule, there's really no reason for Valpo to lose at home.  They'll lose some games on the road, but if they can limit bad road losses, they could easily be 26-5 heading into the HL tourney.  With the non-con schedule, that should be enough for an at-large bid, IMO.

[valpopal]

Bryce has done a nice job of beefing up the schedule ... the home schedule may not be glamorous, but fans need to understand that getting big name teams to the ARC is not an easy task.

As for attendance, I would think that the buzz and expectations around this team would ensure good crowds no matter who the opponents might be.  Ticket prices are extremely reasonable and students get in free, so there really isn't any excuse for fans not supporting a team of this caliber.

I would add that the home games against IPFW, IUPUI, NIU, and Chicago State should draw fans from each of those not-too-distant schools, which would help with attendance. Also, by playing close-by schools at home, especially if we win all those games, Bryce is adding to the familiarity with Valpo among natives of the region as well as possible future recruits in the area, something a few on the board have hoped would happen more.

[vu84v2]

Bryce has done a great job of building a quality team with good players and quickly implementing his system as a new coach.  Bryce is a strongly ethical coach that represents the university well.  He may be doing a very good job at recruiting (we'll see).  With all that, he has done a very poor job of scheduling (I won't reiterate my previous points from before about what sort of deals are in the road games - let's see what is announced).  You need good opponents and a good team to draw good crowds.  The best environments and crowds in the last few years were the Butler games, the Purdue game, and the Missouri State bracketbuster game...why?  because both criteria were met.  I am not saying that they should be getting Michigan State or Indiana or Duke in the ARC...but an acceptable schedule should have had at least two games in the ARC from teams in the upper half of good mid-major conferences. 

I would guess that the total combined away fans for IPFW, IUPUI, NIU and Chicago State would be about 200 (maybe 60 or 70 for NIU and IPFW and no more than 10-20 for Chicago State) - so no value there.  Furthermore, there is no recruiting value in these games since they would be perceived by potential recruits as inferior teams that good teams either don't play or beat by 50. The negative impact of reduced prestige from these games is far greater than some level of geographic value.

Lastly, about the fans needing to understand that getting good teams to the ARC is not an easy task.  I have followed Valpo basketball for the last 20 years and without pouring through RPIs and records over all those years I still believe that this is the worst home schedule in those 20 years.  Last year's home schedule was not great and this is far worse.  The task was always tough and in most years the job got done fairly well (outstandingly well in a few years).  Thus, since the task is of about the same difficulty as it was in many other years, you can only conclude that the program's performance in scheduling home games was poor.

[zvillehaze]

As we won't be at full strength, I don't think we will beat St. Louis, New Mexico or Murray State on the road.

Not sure I understand this comment.  Valpo returns all 5 starters, 6 of 8 top scorers and adds two guys (Capobianco and Fernandez) who practiced with the team last year.  They should be as prepared for the season as any team in the country.

[vu72]

As we won't be at full strength, I don't think we will beat St. Louis, New Mexico or Murray State on the road.

Not sure I understand this comment.  Valpo returns all 5 starters, 6 of 8 top scorers and adds two guys (Capobianco and Fernandez) who practiced with the team last year.  They should be as prepared for the season as any team in the country.

Let's see...St. Louis is projected to be a top 25 team and the A-10 favorite.  Murray State went something like 30-2 and returns just about everyone and New Mexico returns their top 5 scorers from a team that lost by 3 to Louisville in the NCAAs, and, is favored to win the Mountain West.  All of these games are on the road.  Other than these facts, I'm not sure what I was thinking!    We will be very good but to win these in very hostile environments will certainly be a challenge.

[staxawax]

Based on that schedule, there's really no reason for Valpo to lose at home.  They'll lose some games on the road, but if they can limit bad road losses, they could easily be 26-5 heading into the HL tourney.  With the non-con schedule, that should be enough for an at-large bid, IMO.

I think you lose 4 of the road games.  This means you would be going 15-1 in the Horizon?  Maybe, but doubtful.  If you do, the RPI in the league will be so low...... along with the non-existent RPI boost of your home schedule......... you will still have to win the league tourney. 

[zvillehaze]

As we won't be at full strength, I don't think we will beat St. Louis, New Mexico or Murray State on the road.

Not sure I understand this comment.  Valpo returns all 5 starters, 6 of 8 top scorers and adds two guys (Capobianco and Fernandez) who practiced with the team last year.  They should be as prepared for the season as any team in the country.

Let's see...St. Louis is projected to be a top 25 team and the A-10 favorite.  Murray State went something like 30-2 and returns just about everyone and New Mexico returns their top 5 scorers from a team that lost by 3 to Louisville in the NCAAs, and, is favored to win the Mountain West.  All of these games are on the road.  Other than these facts, I'm not sure what I was thinking!    We will be very good but to win these in very hostile environments will certainly be a challenge.

Sorry ... I was just questioning the "full strength" comment.  I don't question that winning at Murray, SLU or UNM will be tough for any team.

[vu72]

As we won't be at full strength, I don't think we will beat St. Louis, New Mexico or Murray State on the road.

Not sure I understand this comment.  Valpo returns all 5 starters, 6 of 8 top scorers and adds two guys (Capobianco and Fernandez) who practiced with the team last year.  They should be as prepared for the season as any team in the country.

Let's see...St. Louis is projected to be a top 25 team and the A-10 favorite.  Murray State went something like 30-2 and returns just about everyone and New Mexico returns their top 5 scorers from a team that lost by 3 to Louisville in the NCAAs, and, is favored to win the Mountain West.  All of these games are on the road.  Other than these facts, I'm not sure what I was thinking!    We will be very good but to win these in very hostile environments will certainly be a challenge.

Sorry ... I was just questioning the "full strength" comment.  I don't question that winning at Murray, SLU or UNM will be tough for any team.

On the "full stength" question, we still don't know when Dority will be eligible but almost certainly not till the second semester.  Same for Rossi, who might be granted a hardship so could play right a way or, he may have to sit the full year.  We lost our backup point to transfer so Dority will be important. Tommy Kurth has battled heath issues and we really don't know how effective he will be as the backup. Rossi is a lights out shooter so not having him will hurt to but probably not as much, although losing Richie Edwards cost us a pretty good 3 point shot.  Those are the "full strength" questions to which I was referring

[motowntitan]

Based on that schedule, there's really no reason for Valpo to lose at home.  They'll lose some games on the road, but if they can limit bad road losses, they could easily be 26-5 heading into the HL tourney.  With the non-con schedule, that should be enough for an at-large bid, IMO.

I think you lose 4 of the road games.  This means you would be going 15-1 in the Horizon?  Maybe, but doubtful.  If you do, the RPI in the league will be so low...... along with the non-existent RPI boost of your home schedule......... you will still have to win the league tourney. 

I can't speak of for all of the league yet, but Detroit upgraded it's RPI schedule for next year:

@ St John's
@ Temple
@ Miami (FL)
@ Syracuse
@ Pitt

Home= Akron and Drake coming in.

[wh]

Based on that schedule, there's really no reason for Valpo to lose at home.  They'll lose some games on the road, but if they can limit bad road losses, they could easily be 26-5 heading into the HL tourney.  With the non-con schedule, that should be enough for an at-large bid, IMO.

I think you lose 4 of the road games.  This means you would be going 15-1 in the Horizon?  Maybe, but doubtful.  If you do, the RPI in the league will be so low...... along with the non-existent RPI boost of your home schedule......... you will still have to win the league tourney. 

I can't speak of for all of the league yet, but Detroit upgraded it's RPI schedule for next year:

@ St John's
@ Temple
@ Miami (FL)
@ Syracuse
@ Pitt

Home= Akron and Drake coming in.

An impressive line-up of OOC opponents...

[justducky]

On the "full stength" question, we still don't know when Dority will be eligible but almost certainly not till the second semester.  Same for Rossi, who might be granted a hardship so could play right a way or, he may have to sit the full year.  We lost our backup point to transfer so Dority will be important. Tommy Kurth has battled heath issues and we really don't know how effective he will be as the backup

All of this was equally true 3 months ago, and in the period of time since you have consitantly been one of our biggest optimist; so don't start getting cold feet now. Yes we will need most of the elligibility and health concerns to break our way. And yes as always when the season starts we will need several critical baskets to rim in instead of out.

Bryce did all he could to ensure that with a little luck we might be a surviving bubble on selection Sunday, and that is all we can ask.
It is somewhat comforting to know that a great number of things might break wrong this year and we could still be a very high NIT seed. Its just a matter of playing the hand we get dealt with the maximum skill, and yes maybe a prayer or two along the way wouldn't hurt.

[zvillehaze]

Based on that schedule, there's really no reason for Valpo to lose at home.  They'll lose some games on the road, but if they can limit bad road losses, they could easily be 26-5 heading into the HL tourney.  With the non-con schedule, that should be enough for an at-large bid, IMO.

I think you lose 4 of the road games.  This means you would be going 15-1 in the Horizon?  Maybe, but doubtful.  If you do, the RPI in the league will be so low...... along with the non-existent RPI boost of your home schedule......... you will still have to win the league tourney. 

Things obviously change from year to year, but Oral Roberts was the "first team out" in 2012 with a 27-6 record and RPI of 51.  http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Oral%20Roberts.html  I'd argue it's a decent comparison, because the Horizon and Summit were fairly close last season in RPI.  I'm just throwing this out for discussion, but I think it shows that it will take 25+ wins to even get at-large consideration.  Certainly possible, but it doesn't leave much margin for error.

[vu72]

I generally agree that the road schedule will be good, though I would have liked to see one "upper half" team from a major conference.  St. Louis, Murray State, and New Mexico are all good games.  However (and unfortunately), I think it is doubtful that any more than one of those three agreed to a return game (if anyone did, my guess is it would be Murray State who would seem to have some greater scheduling challenges than the other two).

I am not aware that Loyola Marymount is confirmed on the schedule and I think that there were some previous posts that this game may get delayed 1-2 years.  Furthermore, it would not be surprising if LMU tries to winge on the return commitment and find some way out of it.  I hope that is not true, but that is a long trip for them.

Not to pick on this post, but if it hasn't been posted here before, according to ESPN, we will have return games from both Murray State and New Mexico. No word yet on St. Louis.

3. Valparaiso should be picked over Detroit for the Horizon League title now that Butler is out. Valparaiso won the regular season a year ago but lost to Detroit at home by 20 in the conference tournament title game. Crusaders coach Bryce Drew is attempting to enhance the nonconference schedule in the oft-chance the Crusaders can't win the conference/tournament. Drew said he has scheduled games against Nebraska, New Mexico, Murray State, Kent State, Missouri State and Oakland. The games against Murray and UNM are quality RPI games and both will return in 2013. Drew is still trying to get Pitt to agree to a game. Drew would also like to get a home-and-home series with the return game being at the United Center in Chicago in his attempt to be creative for a strong series. Meanwhile, the Crusaders will be more formidable if Cal transfer 6-6 Alex Rossi gets a waiver to play immediately. Rossi, who played sparingly at Cal in three games, came home for family reasons. The Crusaders are already adding 6-1 South Florida transfer LaVonte Dority at semester. Dority played in nine games last season, playing 15 minutes a game.

[vu84v2]

VU72 - Glad that you pointed this out from ESPN and I hope that is true (they are right far more often than they are wrong).  This certainly would point to Valpo making decent deals.  Pitt two-for-one is potentially a good deal too, though I can't see Pitt generating as much "buzz" for a United Center game as any of the previous United Center opponents.  It might be better to play Pitt at Valpo (if they would agree) or find someone else for that sort of two-for-one deal.

It still is an awful nonconference home schedule for this year.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Not to pick on your post, but was posted above (reply #70 by our vuweathernerd)

I'll tell you one thing ESPN is wrong about:  there is no "oft-chance" we won't win the conference.  Maybe an "off-chance", but certainly not often.

Link (again):  http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/61309/3-point-shot-we-have-to-send-our-pros

[vubballfan10]

When IUPUI plays Valpo at the ARC, that squad will include former Milwaukee Panther Ja'Rob McCallum, who scored 20 points at the ARC as a Freshman against Valpo (That was the Brandon McPherson steal and layup miracle game).  According to this article, he may or may not be immediately eligible.

http://blogs.indystar.com/recruitingcentral/2012/08/01/former-marion-guard-transfers-to-iupui/

[bbtds]

When IUPUI plays Valpo at the ARC, that squad will include former Milwaukee Panther Ja'Rob McCallum, who scored 20 points at the ARC as a Freshman against Valpo (That was the Brandon McPherson steal and layup miracle game).  According to this article, he may or may not be immediately eligible.

http://blogs.indystar.com/recruitingcentral/2012/08/01/former-marion-guard-transfers-to-iupui/

If you read the story Ja'Rob is quoted as saying "I just knew it was a really good program and as far as getting players to the next level, (IUPUI) has had some success with that," he said. "I'll have a chance to join a good team and be a little closer to home to be around some friends and family."

Does Ja'Rob think IUPUI will get him to the NBA? Is that the next level? Yes, there is George Hill, but who else from IUPUI has gone to the next level?

[vubballfan10]

When IUPUI plays Valpo at the ARC, that squad will include former Milwaukee Panther Ja'Rob McCallum, who scored 20 points at the ARC as a Freshman against Valpo (That was the Brandon McPherson steal and layup miracle game).  According to this article, he may or may not be immediately eligible. http://blogs.indystar.com/recruitingcentral/2012/08/01/former-marion-guard-transfers-to-iupui/

If you read the story Ja'Rob is quoted as saying "I just knew it was a really good program and as far as getting players to the next level, (IUPUI) has had some success with that," he said. "I'll have a chance to join a good team and be a little closer to home to be around some friends and family." Does Ja'Rob think IUPUI will get him to the NBA? Is that the next level? Yes, there is George Hill, but who else from IUPUI has gone to the next level?

I agree that Ja'Rob doesn't not have the talent to play at the next level, even if he thinks he does.  That is just his excuse for transferring.  After sitting out almost a year, he knew that he had lost his starting job to Paris Gulley, and therefore wanted to transfer.  He is a 6'0 shooting guard without the ball-handling skills to attack the basket.  There is no reason someone like Erik Buggs wouldn't be able to shut him down.  Regardless, being back in the ARC will bring back good individual memories for him after he nearly single-handedly won the game for the Panthers here as a Freshman.

[dylanrocks]

Folks, isn't the term "off-hand chance?"

As for Ja' Rob, he's a streaky shooter (as many shooters are) but a below-average defender and a terrible ball-handler.

I wish him well at IUPUI.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

[FWIW:  "offhand chance" is a mixed idiom...like "a bird in the hand is worth beating around the bush"
"offhand chance" < 70K google hits
"off-chance" == 3.85 million hits
http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/off+chance]

[swiftmutiny]

A good article about Twitter and collegiate athletes from Mark Lazerus, which also mentions that there will not be a game with Pitt: http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/lazerus/14166052-452/lazerus-remember-whos-reading-on-twitter.html

[VU75]

 NAIA Robert Morris Chicago basketball schedule has Valpo on their schedule for a November 3 game.  So that wiil be one of the exhibition games.