2012 Football

[milanmiracle]

Well, it's halfway through year 3, and I have to wonder, when is the progress going to come? Is the progress going to come? I think at this point the questions can start being asked...is there a light at the end of the tunnel, or is it a train? The current record under this new staff is 1-26. Without looking I venture to say that is the worst 2 1/2 years in Valpo football history (I could be wrong...I pray I am not).

Here are just some thoughts to ponder...

In year 1 Valpo was defeated by an average of 47-9

In year 2 Valpo was defeated by an average of 45-16

In year 3 Valpo has been defeated by an average of 50-16

More telling is that the average halftime score this year is 34-8. The games are over before the second half kickoff even happens. They're getting blown out by other non scholarship programs, and blown out quickly. Getting drilled by YSU is one thing, getting drilled by your rival on homecoming is another. I understand getting better takes time, but at some point don't you need to see progress? 

The movie title for this debacle could be "Dude, where's my kicker?" 

[covufan]

Well, it's halfway through year 3, and I have to wonder, when is the progress going to come? Is the progress going to come? I think at this point the questions can start being asked...is there a light at the end of the tunnel, or is it a train? The current record under this new staff is 1-26. Without looking I venture to say that is the worst 2 1/2 years in Valpo football history (I could be wrong...I pray I am not).

Good questions.  I think many are asking the same or similar questions. 

I seem to recall Coach Carlson discussing the 'system' they are trying to coach.  Maybe that system won't work with the personnel at hand.  Maybe it is time to junk the system, and try other things. 

It seems the caliber of recruit has been upgraded, but is that true?  Maybe Coach Adams and Coach Horne were recruiting players that were under the radar, so to speak.  Maybe the previous coaches were better at adapting the O and D to the players at hand. 

I'm certainly less optimistic than in August.  Coach Carlson has a record of starting programs.  Maybe his 'system' is something that won't work at the Div I-AA non-scholarship level. 

As you've shown, the stats are not getting better this year.  With the exception of Time of Possession, and our 3-down percentage, most stats are very close to the average for last year. 

With the last three games last season, I was looking for more this season.  Maybe the team needs time to gel a little more.  Hopefully, we'll see some progress in the coming weeks.

Last year the two-deep had 42 players (one on Off and Def were backups at two positions).  Of these, only 8 were seniors; of those 7 were starters.  We did lose 3 OL starters and 3 DL starters.  Tough to overcome that teamwork and experience on the line.  This year we have 44 players on the two-deep (one player on Off is backup for two positions, and SS has 3-deep).  Of these only 7 are seniors, with 4 starters. 

With the young players on this team and some progression on the field in the last 6 PFL games of this season, I think that Carlson deserves at least one more year.  The defense needs to step up and keep the rest of our PFL opponents below 40, preferably lower than 35.  We also need to get the turnover margin into our favor.   

[historyman]

I have also told others that Valpo should give Carlson one more year. After that without any progress he is gone. He may be gone at the end of this year already. I'm sure ml is looking at coaching candidates by now. Just to have an idea of who to call when the time comes. Personally, if I had any kind of success at another level whether asst or head coach I wouldn't listen. It's just the sad truth.

[VULB#62]

Good questions.  I think many are asking the same or similar questions. 

I seem to recall Coach Carlson discussing the 'system' they are trying to coach.  Maybe that system won't work with the personnel at hand.  Maybe it is time to junk the system, and try other things. 

This weekend I was watching the Navy-Air Force game.  The service academies are always scraping to get the talent they need to compete and usually the talent level is below most of their opponents.  Army has had a tougher row to hoe because grads go off to Afghanistan instead of up in the air or on a ship, but both Navy and Air Force go nose to nose with decent competition.  They compete because they know their talent limitations and have designed offensive systems that let them be competitive.  Neither play the current fad offenses, but they still get yards and scores.  So until such a time as Valpo is consistently winning and therefore able to attract and retain really good players, it needs to find a system that enables them to win with the players they have. Being able to control the ball would sure help a D that is always under pressure.

[valpotx]

So are we suggesting Valpo should run the option? 

[milanmiracle]

I am going to suggest that Valpo runs whatever offense or defense gives those kids the best chance to compete on a weekly basis. I don't care what "the system" is, just give your kids a chance to be in football games! If that means running the wing, the option, the no huddle, the spread, the I formation...just let them compete. Do you really think those kids enjoy being 1-26 and getting blown out of most games. Of course not!

My question of the day...Do you really believe that Coach Carlson gave those kids the best opportunity to compete THAT DAY each and every game day? Not three years from now, or not next season, but on game day right now?

My answer...I don't. Go ask Lou Holtz or even Steve Spurrier about changing your styles to fit your players. They've done it, and will continue to do it. Maybe Dale should give it a try as both have well over .500 records against much better competition.

I will never forget that Jacksonville game where he hung those kids out to dry. I watched the whole debacle and Carlson did absolutely nothing to slow the bleeding. Throw three times stopping the clock, punt, and watch them score.

[VULB#62]

I am going to suggest that Valpo runs whatever offense or defense gives those kids the best chance to compete on a weekly basis. I don't care what "the system" is, just give your kids a chance to be in football games! If that means running the wing, the option, the no huddle, the spread, the I formation...just let them compete. Do you really think those kids enjoy being 1-26 and getting blown out of most games. Of course not!

That was my point -- whatever it takes to be competitive with the talent available.  I used Navy-Air Force as examples of adjusting systems to optimize the level of talent you have.  On a level playing field where talent is even, I'm sure Valpo's current systems would be competitive. But the field is not level and adjustments need to be made.

[milanmiracle]

I am going to suggest that Valpo runs whatever offense or defense gives those kids the best chance to compete on a weekly basis. I don't care what "the system" is, just give your kids a chance to be in football games! If that means running the wing, the option, the no huddle, the spread, the I formation...just let them compete. Do you really think those kids enjoy being 1-26 and getting blown out of most games. Of course not!

That was my point -- whatever it takes to be competitive with the talent available.  I used Navy-Air Force as examples of adjusting systems to optimize the level of talent you have.  On a level playing field where talent is even, I'm sure Valpo's current systems would be competitive. But the field is not level and adjustments need to be made.

I was agreeing with you 

[VULB#62]

Yeah, I know     I was actually underscoring your point with mine cuz TX was wondering about the option.  Should have used TX's quote.   

[usc4valpo]

Bring in the veer!

[VULB#62]

                               Princeton Single Wing!
          Delaware Wing T!                          ND Box!

                                  Texas Wishbone! 
Pro Set!                                                   USC I!


Just as long as it uses the kids' talents appropriately.

[usc4valpo]

oh yeah the USC I  !!!  Get some well corn fed offensive linemen and run student body left and right.  Have Charles White and Stanley Havili run the I.  And bring back Anthony Davis from 1974 as shown in the link.

USC Football Classics -Notre Dame 1974

[valpotx]

I think it would be pretty neat for us to go to a gadget-type offense like that, utilizing less talented players that work well within a system.  Our spread offense does not appear to be working towards our kid's strengths.  I believe that when we had Murrell Shields my first 2-3 years at Valpo, we ran the option occasionally.  Let's find another Murrell  .  While we are at it, some Franco Francese's, Eric Kinesie's, and Jeff Horton's lol

[covufan]

Bring in the veer!

                               Princeton Single Wing!
          Delaware Wing T!                          ND Box!

                                  Texas Wishbone! 
Pro Set!                                                   USC I!


Just as long as it uses the kids' talents appropriately.

We could also dust off the Valpo playbook from Koch's last season: The Lonesome Polecat!

http://www.slideshare.net/tomneuman/lonesome-polecat-formation-2

www.gregorydoublewing.com/Lonesome_Polecat.ppt

[covufan]

We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board:

http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647

[VULB#62]

We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board:

http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647

Wow.  I read every post on that link     It's deja vu all over again.  You could have cut and pasted it into 2012 -- the only difference is that jj is replaced by setshot.

[covufan]

We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board:

http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647

Wow.  I read every post on that link     It's deja vu all over again.  You could have cut and pasted it into 2012 -- the only difference is that jj is replaced by setshot.

jj and setshot are one in the same

[VULB#62]

"jj and setshot are one in the same"

************************

Oh no!  Is it kinda like I have this evil twin named Skippy who gets me into trouble all the time?   

Seriously,  I found you guys in 2011 and to see the same comments we are making now showing up almost word-4-word in 2009 helps me understand where a lot of the veteran posters are coming from.

I am throwing away Drake.  It's a done deal, and we might as well accept that it will be another slaughter.  But from that point on let's look at the remainder of the schedule.

We've got the following games remaining and I have added my "Competitive Expectation in Per Centage" (CEPC):

GAME                                   CEPC            WHY?
@ Dayton (4-2)               05.00%      Only winning team left; competed well with Duquesne (NEC), but got killed by Illinois State (ranked)
Marist (2-3)                   20.63%      Beat Davidson & Bryant (they're winless in the NEC), only lost to Bucknell by 2 and Columbia by 1     
@ Campbell (1-4)           45.02%      NAIA team only win, lost to a D-II; "held" Butler to a 14-35 loss; lost to Drake 7-35 but now #3 ODU 14-70       
Davidson (0-5)              49.07%       Respectable in most games; Av margin of loss to FCS scholarship schools - 14.7 pts; haven't given up more than 38 points
@ Morehead (1-4)          40.01%       Only win: Southern VA (NAIA team); But lost to Drake only 25-28 and JU 17-38 and EKU by 7


Based on this highly scientific assessment (because I took the imaginary %age to 2 decimal points) I believe it is reasonable to predict that VU might/could/maybe pull out two (2 ) wins out of three close games to close out the season. 

[valporun]

Oh no!  Is it kinda like I have this evil twin named Skippy?   

Well, do ya, Sport?

[usc4valpo]

We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board: http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647

Are you guys telling me Koch actually used this in a game?  He was a very nice guy, but he never knew how to call a play. 

[milanmiracle]

We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board:

http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647

Wow.  I read every post on that link     It's deja vu all over again.  You could have cut and pasted it into 2012 -- the only difference is that jj is replaced by setshot.

The scary thing is, I am not even bothered by the scores running across the ESPN ticker anymore...Youngstown State 49 Valpo 0 - Half

They're 1-26 since Coach Carlson took over, and truthfully I don't see anything changing or getting better in the forseeable future. I still comment and watch games, but I've become resigned to the fact that they're going to get blown out most of the time and a winning season is a far fetched dream.

While they won't catch Prairie View A&M and their 80 game losing streak, if not for Campbell, Valpo would be awful close to the 44 game losing streak by Columbia. Here's an article from ESPN about the worst college football teams of all time. I think VU is getting close to being included on that list if they're not careful.

http://espn.go.com/page2/s/list/colfootball/teams/worst.html

Let's hope it doesn't happen, but nothing I have seen to this point tells me it won't. 

[usc4valpo]

So here is my question:  if Valpo goes 0-10 this year, then Coach Carlson is 1-32 after 3 years.  What do you do?

[covufan]

We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board: http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647

Are you guys telling me Koch actually used this in a game?  He was a very nice guy, but he never knew how to call a play. 

Yes.  I went to the Dayton game (55-6) - it was a cold and miserable day.  Dayton was a Division III team (no scholarship) at the time.  Valpo used that offense more than a few times that year.  The Dayton coach, in an newspaper article before the game, mentioned the fact that Valpo was using the "lonesome polecat".  He was quoted as saying something like: "and the sad thing is we have to spend a few days this week on how to defend this trick offense"

[covufan]

So here is my question:  if Valpo goes 0-10 this year, then Coach Carlson is 1-32 after 3 years.  What do you do?

If I'm the AD, you have to assess the overall program, the Head Coach, the coaching staff, and the improvements made during this season, and compared to past seasons.  Was there improvement between year 1 and year 2?  Yes.  Will there be improvement between years 2 and 3???  The team really needs to improve on both sides of the ball to show improvement over last season.  Tom Horne also had 3 bad seasons to start his career.  If Carlson can get the season PF/PA delta to around -220, that might show improvement.  The team will also need to be in two games with 7-8 minutes to play, not down by 30+.  The AD also needs to look at the team chemistry - is Carlson bringing in quality student-athletes?  Are the players quality students in the classroom and around campus.  Is recruiting improved over 2009? 

Even is they go 0-11, I think we should give him more time.  This is based on his record, and the schools previous experience with Horne. 

[covufan]

Here is some info on some of our worst seasons, from cfbdatawarehouse.com

Valparaiso Yearly Totals                                                        Year   Coach   Win   Loss   Tie   Pct.   PF   PA   Delta   Ave/game 1981   Bill Koch   1   9   0   0.1   48   265   -217   -21.70 1988   Bill Koch   0   9   1   0.05   76   452   -376   -37.60 1989   Tom Horne   0   10   0   0   100   431   -331   -33.10 1990   Tom Horne   1   9   0   0.1   97   370   -273   -27.30 1991   Tom Horne   1   8   1   0.15   104   273   -169   -16.90 2002   Tom Horne   1   10   0   0.09091   268   498   -230   -20.91 2009   Stacy Adams   1   10   0   0.09091   121   344   -223   -20.27 2010   Dale Carlson   0   11   0   0   100   514   -414   -37.64 2011   Dale Carlson   1   10   0   0.09091   177   500   -323   -29.36

Right now, for 2012 we're average a -33 differential per game.  We have some opponents that we should be competitive with coming up, so this should change.