2012 Football

[covufan]

"jj and setshot are one in the same"

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Oh no!  Is it kinda like I have this evil twin named Skippy who gets me into trouble all the time?   

Seriously,  I found you guys in 2011 and to see the same comments we are making now showing up almost word-4-word in 2009 helps me understand where a lot of the veteran posters are coming from.

I am throwing away Drake.  It's a done deal, and we might as well accept that it will be another slaughter.  But from that point on let's look at the remainder of the schedule.

We've got the following games remaining and I have added my "Competitive Expectation in Per Centage" (CEPC):

GAME                                   CEPC            WHY?
@ Dayton (4-2)               05.00%      Only winning team left; competed well with Duquesne (NEC), but got killed by Illinois State (ranked)
Marist (2-3)                   20.63%      Beat Davidson & Bryant (they're winless in the NEC), only lost to Bucknell by 2 and Columbia by 1     
@ Campbell (1-4)           45.02%      NAIA team only win, lost to a D-II; "held" Butler to a 14-35 loss; lost to Drake 7-35 but now #3 ODU 14-70       
Davidson (0-5)              49.07%       Respectable in most games; Av margin of loss to FCS scholarship schools - 14.7 pts; haven't given up more than 38 points
@ Morehead (1-4)          40.01%       Only win: Southern VA (NAIA team); But lost to Drake only 25-28 and JU 17-38 and EKU by 7


Based on this highly scientific assessment (because I took the imaginary %age to 2 decimal points) I believe it is reasonable to predict that VU might/could/maybe pull out two (2 ) wins out of three close games to close out the season. 

Massey and Real Time RPI both have some predictions for future games.  The highest chance of winning from Massey is 42% against Davidson.  RTRPI has us beating Davidson by 1 and losing to Marist by 3. 

http://realtimerpi.com/football/ncaaf_2093_Men.html?Valparaiso

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=181623

Win at home!

[crusadermoe]

Coach Horne needs to be seriously defended here.   I have never met the man.
However, Valpo played in a scholarship Division 2 conference in those 3 Horne years.  91-0 loss to Grand Valley was near the norm.    It is absolutely unfair to compare Carlson and Horne's 3 year records.
The best thing that happened to VU football was the Pioneer League formation because it leveled that playing field on scholarships.     Valpo's only obstacle at that point was a very boring campus culture, but Horne did ok.   Horne won two conference titles in that conference even though we also had some bad years.    I don't recall many horrible teams though in the period of 1997 to 2005.   
Again, they WON two conference titles and competed well.   

[VULB#62]

Here is some info on some of our worst seasons, from cfbdatawarehouse.com

Valparaiso Yearly Totals                                                        Year   Coach   Win   Loss   Tie   Pct.   PF   PA   Delta   Ave/game 1981   Bill Koch   1   9   0   0.1   48   265   -217   -21.70 1988   Bill Koch   0   9   1   0.05   76   452   -376   -37.60 1989   Tom Horne   0   10   0   0   100   431   -331   -33.10 1990   Tom Horne   1   9   0   0.1   97   370   -273   -27.30 1991   Tom Horne   1   8   1   0.15   104   273   -169   -16.90 2002   Tom Horne   1   10   0   0.09091   268   498   -230   -20.91 2009   Stacy Adams   1   10   0   0.09091   121   344   -223   -20.27 2010   Dale Carlson   0   11   0   0   100   514   -414   -37.64 2011   Dale Carlson   1   10   0   0.09091   177   500   -323   -29.36

Right now, for 2012 we're average a -33 differential per game.  We have some opponents that we should be competitive with coming up, so this should change. 

Here's a slightly different look at some of the same data based on the VU Athletic Website and the VU Football record book. What's been bugging me since 2008 has been the loss margin.  Turns out it was generally lower before 2010.

[milanmiracle]

So here is my question:  if Valpo goes 0-10 this year, then Coach Carlson is 1-32 after 3 years.  What do you do?

I fully expect Valpo to go 0-10 and finish 1-32 under Coach Carlson's tenure to this point. However, I think you have to keep him for 4 years. Let this process run it's course and see what happens after next season. I think there should be an evaluation at the end of this year, just to make sure expectations are clear. Then let the season play out and go from there.

[milanmiracle]

Here is some info on some of our worst seasons, from cfbdatawarehouse.com

Valparaiso Yearly Totals                                                        Year   Coach   Win   Loss   Tie   Pct.   PF   PA   Delta   Ave/game 1981   Bill Koch   1   9   0   0.1   48   265   -217   -21.70 1988   Bill Koch   0   9   1   0.05   76   452   -376   -37.60 1989   Tom Horne   0   10   0   0   100   431   -331   -33.10 1990   Tom Horne   1   9   0   0.1   97   370   -273   -27.30 1991   Tom Horne   1   8   1   0.15   104   273   -169   -16.90 2002   Tom Horne   1   10   0   0.09091   268   498   -230   -20.91 2009   Stacy Adams   1   10   0   0.09091   121   344   -223   -20.27 2010   Dale Carlson   0   11   0   0   100   514   -414   -37.64 2011   Dale Carlson   1   10   0   0.09091   177   500   -323   -29.36

Right now, for 2012 we're average a -33 differential per game.  We have some opponents that we should be competitive with coming up, so this should change. 

Here's a slightly different look at some of the same data based on the VU Athletic Website and the VU Football record book. What's been bugging me since 2008 has been the loss margin.  Turns out it was generally lower before 2010.

The loss margin would be smaller if he used the talent he has vs. the talent he wants to have. I don't really think he cares if the lose by 100 or 1, as long as they are working towards improving and running "the system".

[VULB#62]

The loss margin would be smaller if he used the talent he has vs. the talent he wants to have. I don't really think he cares if the lose by 100 or 1, as long as they are working towards improving and running "the system".

For more information, attached is another cut at the data focusing on these past three years [click on it to enlarge]: 

>  Basically the Offense has improved by a total of 80 points over 3 years (100, 160, 180 [projected]) or + 2.42 points per game over 33 games [again, projected].
>  The Defense has allowed 514, 417 and 543 [projected] points respectively in three seasons for PA averages of 46.7 in year one, down to 37.9 in year two and a projected 49.3 in year three, for a differential of +2.6 points per game over three seasons.

Net, the increase in PA has cancelled out the gain in PF over three years.  So.......... On the field, there is little to show in terms of improvement.  In other words, the stats reflect eyeball observation.

We've been assured that the talent coming in is getting better and better each year.  Judging from size, HS credentials, build and observed athleticism, that is probably true.  There has been a dedicated off-season program that is more structured and goal oriented.  There have been improvements in uniforms, shoes, some facilities (we've already beaten the stadium to death, so I'll leave that out), etc.  The staff is touching on more things than just football (life skills, etc.).  So the structural basics are being addressed to a good degree.  IMO a true program is now in place.

Of the remaining 6 games, Drake and Dayton could be blow-outs so the ratios will probably remain in tact to that point.  The remaining four may change those ratios more favorably as all those opponents have losing records (although Marist is the most formidable among them and may have a winning record by the time they arrive at Brown Field if they can get by Butler this week [maybe] and Drake [probably not] next week).

Of course, wins would be nice, but at this point, they are not the sole determinant of program improvement.  First must come competitiveness, closer scores, fewer points allowed.  I'd rather suffer through a string of tight losses, frustrating as that might be, than have the futility and confidence drain resulting from blow-out after blow-out.  Tighten up the on-field performance, then we can talk about wins.

[covufan]

Report to moderator   Logged

Yes.  After his first three years, his teams were mostly competitive including the 2 league titles.

What were the circumstances around Horne's depart ure?  If I recall, it was during the summer, so not much chance to look for a replacement, going straight to Adams since he was on staff.

[valporun]

I can't remember the exact reasons that Horne stepped down, but it happen about mid-July, so all that could be done was to hire someone from his "system", and Stacy Adams was the most logical choice, even if his actual coaching didn't prove that.

[VULB#62]

Tighten up the on-field performance, then we can talk about wins.

This Drake game responded to that wish.  There are 5 more games.  If all five (or even 4/5) could be as close and as competitive as this, I, for one, will concede progress has been made.

[crusadermoe]

Ditto for me.    As I said on the Drake game post, they beat San Diego 38-10.     
But I also agree with  you that sustained performance will tell the tale.    In 2010 we nearly beat Drake at homecoming.   Then we got destroyed by everyone else afterward, even the weak teams.   

[VULB#62]

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2012
Butler 17, Marist 14 *   
Drake 35, Valparaiso 21 *   
Jacksonville 34, Davidson 24 *   
Dayton 41, Morehead State 27 *   
San Diego 44, Campbell 0 *   

After this week, and based on the kids' effort Saturday, of the remaining opponents (in bold), my thought is that next week is pivotal.  Will they continue to play tough, competitive football or, feeling like they accomplished something, fall back on old ways (like 2010)?

The remaining schedule gives us two more tough opponents (Dayton and Marist) in a row and then three teams without a PFL win among them. A game similar to Drake against Dayton (they led Morehead only 24-13 at the half) and a close loss to Marist sets us up to go even up against Campbell, which has scored only 65 points so far and given up 215.  Davidson is a home game and we could have beaten them at their place last year.  It might be possible to go into Morehead looking for a third win in a row to end the season.

Sat, 10/20   at Dayton *   Dayton, Ohio    12:00 p.m.    
Sat, 10/27   Marist *   Brown Field    1:00 p.m.    
Sat, 11/3     at Campbell *   Buies Creek, N.C.    12:00 p.m.   
Sat, 11/10   Davidson *   Brown Field    1:00 p.m.    
Sat, 11/17   at Morehead State *   Morehead, Ky.    12:00 p.m.   

But the ground game has got to continue to improve and be relied upon by the coaching staff (Where did Lehr come from?  He was listed as a tight end on the roster).  Saturday Valpo demonstrated that you don't have to throw 50 times, get intercepted two or three times or get sacked 5 times to have an offense.  Part of the story of the "low" score was that Valpo took time off the clock and gave Lehman good targets because the Drake defense had to honor the run.  The same worked for Quinn Schafer on the final TD drive.

Paul Oren, who was the substitute color man, mentioned that Schafer (6-4-225) was actually regarded more highly than Hoffman coming in until he blew out a knee.  There might be some QB competition this week and it's possible that Carlson may not be as reluctant as he has been in the past to pull a QB if he isn't doing well.

[valporun]

I have to agree with VULB#62. I do believe it is time to change who plays a factor in the lineup. We relied on Hoffman's arm too much, too often, and it would result in  3-and-outs in less than a minute too often. The running game should be the system, with an occasional pass play. Also, I'm thinking of looking at the stats for Hoffman and Ali-El, and see if they held us back too often. I mean is Hoffman's accuracy or inability to make quick decisions a factor in the passing game, and is Ali-El more of a blocking back/fullback type, instead of the main running attack? Valpo might be able to do better with guys that can get the ball moving forward, rather than just hitting certain spots, and "taking a dive".

[usc4valpo]

VU is now ranked #245 in the Sagarin ratings!!!

[VULB#62]

Texas lost to Oklahoma this weekend 21-63. Ohio State beats Indiana (Indiana?!?!?)  52-49.   

I'm beginning to finally get it.  The paradigm has changed.  Close scores are meaningless.  Blow-outs are meaningless.  It's just:  Is it a W or a L?    .............And does anybody play freakin defense anymore?   

This is not our father's football.   

[usc4valpo]

Did you see what Texas Tech did last weekend?

[valporun]

There was talk on the ESPNU College Football podcast, and on a couple other radio shows/tv shows I heard about how some analysts and followers can't understand why college football doesn't value defense as much as they should. Maybe if the BCS took score differential into account, teams would start to value defense a bit more, making many games more exciting all-around, not just from an offensive perspective. I mean that WVU/Baylor game two weekends ago got annoying to watch because of all the scoring. Football should never see scores that high, especially with all the video work, but it seems recruiting is all about looking good to ESPN and the other recruiting websites out there, instead of getting players that fit the system, and leave everything out on the field all the time.