Exhibition Game vs St. Joseph's

[LaPorteAveApostle]

No. 

Just because one team goes 16-0 in conference doesn't mean that the conference deserves 2 bids to the NCAA tourney.

Not what I said.  Would we not merit an at-large with a 26-3 ish record, regardless of whether the losses were in or out of conference?

[milanmiracle]

No. 

Just because one team goes 16-0 in conference doesn't mean that the conference deserves 2 bids to the NCAA tourney.

Not what I said.  Would we not merit an at-large with a 26-3 ish record, regardless of whether the losses were in or out of conference?

If the three losses are to New Mexico, St. Louis and Murray State...then no, it's unlikely.

[chef]

Road games this year against Nebraska, Kent State, Saint Louis, New Mexico, Missouri State, Oakland, and Murray State. Throw in the 8 league road games. I don't see 26-3 likely, but if it does happen, Valpo will definitely get an at-large bid.

[zvillehaze]

All the "26-3" talk makes me chuckle a bit.  You do have access to a schedule, right? 

If Valpo loses 3 non-conference games, 2 league games and loses in the HL finals, they would be sitting at 27-6 on Selection Sunday.  For reference, the last HL team to get an at-large bid was 26-5 on Selection Sunday and got a #9 seed.  Feel free to write it off as unlikely (or impossible) if you'd like, but it seems silly to do that before your team has played a game.   

[wh]

I would add one contingency to zville's assessment.  The 2 conference losses cannot be to bottom tier HL teams.  Prior to our loss in last year's tournament championship game we were 7-0 against the 2nd-4th place teams(which was great), but inexplicably split with 4 of the other 6 lesser teams.  Those are all considered bad losses, and that won't pass muster.  The few Mid majors that earn at-larges will have beaten the teams they're supposed to beat.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

If Valpo loses 3 non-conference games, 2 league games and loses in the HL finals, they would be sitting at 27-6 on Selection Sunday.

It's nice to correct things that people get wrong, but it's more helpful when you actually get what I said right...or rather, not helpful because then there's nothing to correct. 

I said

run the table conf reg season

so we would be (say) 26-3 going into the conf tourney (actually 28 now that I counted the games), lose in the finals, and be 30-4.


Thirty wins and no at-large bid?  How many of those have there been?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

All right, so if you're going to ask a rhetorical question, you might as well be the one to try to answer it.

The best way I have found to answer it is to go through the NIT...if a 30-win team missed the Big Dance, well they'd pretty much sure as heck would make the NIT (you'd think)...

Best mid-major (or low-) at-large records in the NIT
2011 Coastal Carolina (Big South) 28-5
2010 Coastal Carolina (Big South) 28-6
2009 Creighton (MVC) 26-7; St. Mary's (WCC) 26-6; Davidson (SoCon) 26-7; Niagara (MAAC) 26-8
2008 Robert Morris (NEC) 26-7; Stephen F. Austin (Southland) 26-5

From 2006 and before, Wikipedia does not give the records of the teams (which, why not?)

Nevertheless, I feel confident in taking a slight leap and declaring that in the last six years, no team who has won 29 or more games in the regular season has missed the NCAA tournament.

[78crusader]

All you guys are doing with this 26-3, Sweet 16, etc talk is providing a lot of bulletin board material for our opponents.

We should have a good team. Maybe even a special one.  But I'll take the conservative, "take it one game at a time" approach, thank you.  For all we know, Georgia Southern might come in here for the first game on Nov. 9 and give us a beat down.  Our last two real games feature a 20-point drubbing at home and a lethargic smackdown at the hands of a pedestrian NIT qualifier.  To cite just one (admittedly old) example of overconfidence, back in 1984-85 IU was coming off a Elite 8 season with everybody back.  Preseason ranked #4.  IU then proceeded to spend the entire season proving the experts didn't know what they were talking about: a 19-14 final record that was rightfully rewarded with banishment to the NIT.  (When asked what he liked best about that year's team, Bob Knight, before the final NIT game, said: "After tonight I won't have to watch them anymore.")

Paul

[LaPorteAveApostle]

If the Georgia Southern or St. Louis or Detroit players are spending time on this board, then let them have all the "bulletin board material" they need.  They should probably be practicing instead of scouring obscure enemy websites, you think?

While of course, we only play one game at a time, since this is shaping up to be a historic year, the question is valid: 
what does it take to get to the NCAA tourney? There are two ways:  automatic or at-large (duh). 

But we KNOW how to get the auto bid.  In light of last year, however, we are justly allowed to wonder, "how do we get an at-large bid?"
[Brady Hoke voice] "Well, kids, first you have to lose your conference tourney..." [/farley'd]

In all seriousness, I think we've found that we can be assured of an at-large bid with a solid 30-win season, and perhaps even with 29-5, provided we can't find a way to win at least one conference final on our home court.

Now that we have that pretty much solved, we'll know by conference tourney time whether we have to win out or not to have any chance at the Dance, won't we?

[FWalum]

I also prefer to take the one game at a time conservative approach.  We are one high ankle sprain or balky knee away from a good but not great season.  I believe this will be a "special" season, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Remember that Ryan and the team had a bout of some sort of illness at the end of the HL tournament and for the NIT game, that is all it took.

[valpotx]

I agree with Apostle that there is probably a 0.0001% chance that any opponent of ours knows a single post off of our forum 

[valporun]

Apostle, I believe it was in 2006 that the NIT started giving out bids to the regular season conference champions who didn't make the NCAA tournament. This is how you were able to find the top mid-major/low-major teams was with the changed format when the NCAA purchased the NIT.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I mean, this is standard video game theory:  know how many lives/how much health you have left at any given time.

If we say we only have 5 "lives", then we know we can't take any nights off against the IPFWs of the year.

As far as the NIT--I think it's simply because I was going off Wikipedia, and no one bothered to put the records in for 2006 or before that. But you are correct that it was in 2006 that the NCAA instituted the "auto-bid".  In 2007 and after someone with spare time started inputting the teams' records.  I guess I don't blame them for not going further back.

How about Al McGuire and Marquette in 1970?  Rejecting their NCAA bid to play in the NIT?  That's amazing.

[vu72]

I also prefer to take the one game at a time conservative approach.  We are one high ankle sprain or balky knee away from a good but not great season.  I believe this will be a "special" season, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Remember that Ryan and the team had a bout of some sort of illness at the end of the HL tournament and for the NIT game, that is all it took.

[/b]

That is what the difference with this year's team and last year's team.  At the NIT game Harris didn't even make the trip and Matt Kenney didn't play either. Some the guys were not at 100% and we played with 6 guys.

That won't happen this year unless the plague hits the team.  Last year we played with 8 guys, 1 7'er who could maybe help for a minute or two and 2 walkons.  This year we go 11 deep with players who are interchangeable.

[valporun]

How about Al McGuire and Marquette in 1970?  Rejecting their NCAA bid to play in the NIT?  That's amazing.

Apostle, prior to NBC and CBS really buying into the future of the NCAA tournament as we know it now, the NIT was the National Championship tournament. The NCAA was more like the NIT at the time. Also, prior to 2006, unless a mid-major had a really big year, including a big school upset, they didn't regularly get NIT invites. I think Valpo got lucky in 2003 with an NIT bid because our recent NCAA bids and the honeymoon period on the Sweet 16. Once the NCAA bought the NIT, and gave all regular season conference champions bids to the NIT, it opened up the postseason to more mid-majors, and changed that we now have really subpar teams making the postseason to fill in CBI/CIT fields, much like those pre-Christmas/pre-New Year's Day bowl games featuring a battle of bad 6-5 5th or 6th place WAC/MAC football teams.

[vusupporter]

How about Al McGuire and Marquette in 1970?  Rejecting their NCAA bid to play in the NIT?  That's amazing.

Apostle, prior to NBC and CBS really buying into the future of the NCAA tournament as we know it now, the NIT was the National Championship tournament. The NCAA was more like the NIT at the time. Also, prior to 2006, unless a mid-major had a really big year, including a big school upset, they didn't regularly get NIT invites. I think Valpo got lucky in 2003 with an NIT bid because our recent NCAA bids and the honeymoon period on the Sweet 16. Once the NCAA bought the NIT, and gave all regular season conference champions bids to the NIT, it opened up the postseason to more mid-majors, and changed that we now have really subpar teams making the postseason to fill in CBI/CIT fields, much like those pre-Christmas/pre-New Year's Day bowl games featuring a battle of bad 6-5 5th or 6th place WAC/MAC football teams.

An even bigger key to getting the NIT bid in 2003 was being willing to hop on the bus immediately for a Monday night road game.

[VULB#62]

Add to this that our short-term memory has overshadowed the fact that the field (and the hype and the control by the networks) has grown exponentially.  It used to take a couple of weeks to crown a champ.  Now it takes a whole month.

[valporun]

Add to this that our short-term memory has overshadowed the fact that the field (and the hype and the control by the networks) has grown exponentially.  It used to take a couple of weeks to crown a champ.  Now it takes a whole month.

Of course, it used to only take a couple of weeks because you didn't have so many conferences, 300+ D-I teams, and it was more "you win your regular season title, and YOU'RE IN!!" Not so much about the money grab that is the conference tournament of today. Plus, the tournament field was only 32 teams, so you were playing the Elite Eight, the Final Four, and the Championship game in the matter of a weekend, rather than three weeks of 68 to 64 to 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 to 2 to the NC! Plus, doing away with the 3rd place game that might have been a recruiting tool when the gyms were all very small, but now would just be a boring game that two teams would play mostly reserves in because they wouldn't care about it.

[covufan]

Road games this year against Nebraska, Kent State, Saint Louis, New Mexico, Missouri State, Oakland, and Murray State. Throw in the 8 league road games. I don't see 26-3 likely, but if it does happen, Valpo will definitely get an at-large bid.

In the 7 OOC road games, we are currently favored to lose these games according to either Massey or RealTimeRPI:

http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=193573

I think we can pull out 3 or 4 wins, if we gel as a team early this year.  With this schedule and the HL season and tourney, we'll be doing extremely well to only have 7 or less losses when NCAA time comes around.

[valpotx]

Run, I believe that there were around 316 D-1 schools when we were in school, which has since become 346!  There are 282 in D-2, 446 in D-3, and over 300 NAIA.  I am sure that more shifts will be coming as the economy recovers.

[valporun]

tx, VULB#62 was talking about how it only took a couple of weeks, not a whole month, for the NCAA tourney to play out. This was before the NCAA had 300+ D-I teams. I'll agree with your numbers from when we were at Valpo, but it's the whole evolution of the tournament over the years/decades, not just since the NCAA allowed all kinds of division/conference jumping in the last decade or so.

[SadersofthelostArc]

Speculation over the last few years is that the Dance is going to keep on getting bigger...I've heard serious calls for a D-1 tourney in which every team in D-1 is in the field!  Crazy talk....but 96 teams wouldn't be shocking...it's all about the almight dollar.  But, I'd hope the NCAA goon squad understands one very important principle---mo' money, mo' problems.

[covufan]

(When asked what he liked best about that year's team, Bob Knight, before the final NIT game, said: "After tonight I won't have to watch them anymore.")

I always liked that one!  Another one is John McKay: Following a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss in their early seasons, McKay was asked what he thought of his team's "execution." He replied, "I'm all for it."

[Pgmado]

WVUR webcast will be working for Robert Morris game. Karl Berner and I will be on the call.

[vu72]

Thank goodness and oh, by the way, I regularly check nwi.com for info.  any stories coming up??