Horizon League: The Non-Con, 2012
Thought this would be better as a blog post, even though it seems like no one ever goes here.
All stats from rpiforecast.com and live-rpi.com, as of 8:30 AM EST 12/31/12.
Milwaukee
Record: 4-10
But really (D1 only): 2-10
RPI: 333 (There are 347 D1 teams.)
OOC RPI: 335
SOS: 284
OOC SOS: 288
Signature win: vs. #90 Davidson, 73-68
Oh so close: L vs. #235 South Carolina, 82-75, OT (not-that-USC is currently ranked behind #234 South Carolina Upstate, no fakies).
How did they manage to lose to: eh, let’s face it…they are so bad, no loss could be considered an upset.
Bonus RPIForecast fact: UWM is given a 31% chance of beating CSU at home. In no other game are they given even so much as a 1-in-4 shot.
Thing they are like: Your son’s 5th grade basketball team, with a couple more tats and facial hairs.
Green Bay
Record: 6-7
But really: 5-7
RPI: 220
OOC RPI: 223
SOS: 209
OOC SOS: 222
Signature win: vs. #75 Marquette, 49-47.
Oh so close: L @ #190 Nevada, 71-69.
How did they manage to lose to: @ #238 Tennesee Tech, 74-68.
Bonus RPIForecast fact: There is a greater chance that they win only one more game the rest of the way (0.05%) than that they lose only two more games (0.04%).
Thing they are like: Women drivers (just not very good on the road).
Cleveland St.
Record: 8-5
But really: 5-5
RPI: 131
OOC RPI: 132
SOS: 147
OOC SOS: 160
Signature win: can they get credit for playing a tough schedule? (ED NOTE: no).
Oh so close: Um…they haven’t lost by fewer than 9. Welp.
How did they manage to lose to: they haven’t lost to anyone with a lower RPI. So there’s also that.
Bonus RPIForecast fact: They are at 131 but expected to be 201 when conference dust settles. (Apparently they have allergies.)
Thing they are like: A lawyer for the NHL owners/players. (Seriously, who negotiates for games with Rio [pronounced “rye-oh”] Grande, Notre Dame College [Euclid, OH], and Alabama-Huntsville? …I mean besides Wittenberg.)
Youngstown St.
Record: 8-5
But really: 5-5
RPI: 178
OOC RPI: 180
SOS: 244
OOC SOS: 252
Signature win: @ #237 Georgia, 68-56. Hey, the name has to be good for something, right?
Oh so close: L to #43 NDSU, 83-80 (neutral site)
How did they manage to lose to: #216 James Madison? He’s been dead since, like, 1850ish. (ED NOTE: Actually 1836.)
Bonus RPIForecast fact: I stopped caring about them a couple entries ago.
Thing they are like: Moo goo gai pan, generally pleasant and non-offensive. Except you meant to tell the girl “moo shu pork”, so you’re actually really disappointed.
Detroit
Record: 8-5
But really: 6-5
RPI: 89
OOC RPI: 88
SOS: 83
OOC SOS: 91
Signature win: vs. #93 Akron, 80-73
Oh so close: L @ #103 St. John’s, 77-74
How did they lose to: @ #303 Bowling Green, 70-65. Ye gods.
Bonus RPIForecast fact: Coach Ray McCallum’s son, Ray Jr., plays for the Titans. What, you knew that already? Oh. Well, I never claimed they were new facts.
Thing they are like: A nominally Catholic school with an overly-inflated sense of its basketball prowess.
Wright State
Record: 9-4
But really: 8-4
RPI: 179
OOC RPI: 181
SOS: 336
SOS: dot dot dot dash dash dash dot dot dot
OOC SOS: 335
Signature win: Sorry. UPS won’t let you sign for wins unless they’re over someone not in the bottom half of D1.
Oh so close: to having a decent schedule. And by “close to” I mean “ridiculously far from”.
How did they lose to: frickin’ BOWLING GREEN again!
Bonus RPIForecast fact: They have a 1-in-200 chance of winning out! (So you’re sayin’ there’s a chance…)
Thing they are like: Their schedule is weaker than ABC Monday nights post-football season.
UIC
Record: 9-4
But really: 8-4
RPI: 67
OOC RPI: 68
SOS: 134
OOC SOS: 142
Signature win: vs. #26 (!) Colorado St., 64-55.
Oh so close: to actually being pretty good before dropping their last three non-con to mediocre squads.
How did they lose to: @ #198 Toledo (by 19…).
Bonus RPIForecast fact: Favored by 22 in a conference game? A 97% chance of winning? Are you seriously…oh, Milwaukee, huh?…ok…seems low.
Thing they are like: UIC NON-CON == Star Wars, Episode V…except until turning into Episode I there at the end. Meesa no like that!
Loyola
Record: 9-3
But really: 8-3
RPI: 118
RIP: Realistic hopes.
OOC RPI: 115
SOS: 287
OOC SOS: 291
Signature win: @ #202 DePaul, 69-61, despite 37 points from a fifty-something Mark Aguirre.
Oh so close: Haven’t lost by single digits.
How did they lose to: eh…if your worst loss is #91 South Florida… #firstworldproblems
Bonus RPIForecast Fact: Congratulations! You have managed to snag 5 games this season against teams with lower RPI than #321 Chicago State! Who you also played! Tell ‘em what they’ve won! …um…six basically meaningless and unhelpful games?
Thing they are like: A small flash mob that gets the message “SHOW UP PLAY BANZAI-TYPE DEFENSE FOR FORTY MINUTES LIKE CRAZY SINGING OPTIONAL” and it feels like there’s like 12 guys even though only 5 show u…oh wait. That’s…that’s actually UIC. Whoops! My bad.
Valparaiso
Record: 10-4
But really: 9-4
RPI: 111
OOC RPI: 108
SOS: 276
OOC SOS: 279
Signature win: @ #33 Murray St, fool.
Oh so close: I still don’t want to talk about it.
How did they lose: an EIGHT POINT LEAD with 58 SECONDS to play, when there’s NO @#$& SHOT CLOCK and the state title is SO CLOSE they are already showing weeping Colonials on the JumboTron, and…erm. Ahem. right Bryce, wrong Valpo. Yes. Totally over that. Where were we?
Bonus RPIForecast fact: Valpo’s probable win % goes up 7-tenths of a percent when Bryce takes off his jacket.
Thing they are like: The series “Lost”. Starts with such hope and promise (with Rowdy as “Jack”!), excites and exhilarates you with previously unforeseen circumstances (who had UIC and Loyola as The Others?), and then trips up in weird places (…Will Bogan as John Locke?), starts disappointing you (Erik Buggs as Michael…umm, that’s a little obvious—since they’re both…uh…not great at shooting), but then pulls you back in with thrilling twists and turns (¿Bryce is Jacob?), building the suspense with hypotheticals (how would the smoke monster do vs. a 1-3-1 zone defense?), until suddenly…you’re dead.
Oh well.