Horizon League: The Con (in Prose), 2013
9) Milwaukee (8-23 overall)
Numbers in parentheses are first, before conference play began and second, where RPIForecast predicted them; stats courtesy rpi-forecast.com
RPI: 304 (330 midseason / 331 predicted)
SOS: 170 (269 / 216)
W/L: 3-13 (4-10 / 2-14)
Best case / worst case: 3-13 / 0-16
What happened: Was best case, although you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone actually claiming that any part of this season other than upsetting Davidson was “best case scenario”.
Best conference win: An 18-point thumping of Loyola in Milwaukee.
Worst loss: So many to choose from; straight up: on the road @ VU, 40-71.
Their conference season was like: Pearl Harbor, with the HL as the Japanese and UWM as the harbor 
Science Again! RPIForecast underestimated this squad (330 RPI / 216 SOS) vs. reality (304 / 170). Let that be a lesson to all those who would doubt PANTHERPOWER
Chance of winning the conference tournament: 0.01%
Wait ’til next year? In this sense: only if you’re a Cubs fan and it’s 1946.
8) Cleveland State (14-17 overall)
RPI: 193 (midseason: 139 / predicted finish: 185)
SOS: 132 (181 / 130)
W/L: 5-11 (8-5 / 6-10)
Best case / worst case: 7-9 / 2-14
What happened: Was pretty much forecast by RPI, er, Forecast. Unlike Milwaukee, youth is an excuse. Also “uncontested layups”, apparently.
Best conference win: A 12-point slap-down of Detroit. Ah, early January, when early wins and losses of the day seem so much more important than they do in March. Kind of like a newspaper vs. the same newspaper three days from now.
Worst loss: How about that 27-point run-for-the-bus at Loyola this weekend? Thought so.
Their conference season was like:
The presidency of Gerald Ford. Nobody expected all
that much, so nobody could claim to be too disappointed. (Except maybe the editorial page at the Washington Post sports page at the Plain Dealer.)
Science Again! RPIForecast pegged this squad (193 RPI / 132 SOS) vs. reality (185 / 130). So all those excuses for why they lost when they were destined to end up there anyway are just Waters under the bus bridge.
Chance of winning the conference tournament: 0.08%
Wait ’til next year? They won’t be here next year, that’s for sure. (And not because they’re getting invited to the A-10 any time soon either. I meant 8th in the HL.)
7) Loyola (15-15 overall)
RPI: 219 (midseason: 122 / predicted finish: 185)
SOS: 270 (294 / 130)
W/L: 5-11 (9-4 / 8-8)
Best case / worst case: 12-4 / 5-11
What happened: The Worst-Case Scenario Handbook. Everyone pretty much had their doubts that this team was really good, and past the first couple games, they were largely confirmed, then etched into stone when Averkamp went down.
Best conference win: A 9-point punch-in-the-neck of Valpo at the ARC. The worst home loss since…since I still don’t want to talk about it.
Worst loss: You lost by 18 to Milwaukee. That’s embarrassing, even on the road.
Their conference season was like: The Jesuits themselves, ironically. Surprisingly came out of nowhere to a successful start, a fast rise, then a series of mishaps resutling in suppression, and finally, going right off the ding-dang rails.
Science Again! RPIForecast was not alone in being skeptical; however, not skeptical enough. Then again, anything coming off a 1-17 conference season is going to seem like gangbusters improvement.
Chance of winning the conference tournament: 0.61%
Wait ’til next year? They got a taste of what playing without Averkamp would be like, and it wasn’t pretty, and not just because things don’t ever taste ‘pretty’. Still, Moser has them on the right path.
6) Youngstown State (16-14)
RPI: 189 (midseason: 191 / predicted finish: 170)
SOS: 196 (252 / 223)
W/L: 7-9 (8-5 / 9-7)
Best case / worst case: 14-2 / 6-10
What happened: That is just a bit closer to Worst-Case…which is non-coincidentally where you find “an injury to Kendrick Perry” in the YSU game plan. Also their defense was ridiculously bad for having the HL DPOY.
Best conference win: A 12-point win over the conference champ? I’d say that qualifies.
Worst loss: The HL POY playing the 2nd most (out of 23 players in the game) minutes in a 41-point blowout in front of several dozen dejected Peng-fans.
Their conference season was like: The Avengers, because pretty early on it looked bad for the home team (see above) but then the team came together, but instead of the movie ending at the point where the Avengers take on the evil Defending Champs at the climax, just before it Captain America blows out his knee in practice trying to defend the Hulk coming off the pick-and-roll. Except the Penguins were not coached by Joss Whedon, and DJ Cole would have to be Hawkeye, the hero without any super powers.
Science Again! Everybody thought that they would build upon last year, and then they went right back to muddling again. They were 191 at midseason; they’re 189 now.
Chance of winning the conference tournament: 0.39%
Wait ’til next year? As long as Kendrick Perry has eligibility, don’t count them out. Plus hometown boy and DPOY Damien–what? He’s…he’s done? …eargle beargle. Put them down for 7-9 again.
5) UIC (16-14)
RPI: 164 (midseason: 70 / predicted finish: 70)
SOS: 147 (134 / 123)
W/L: 7-9 (9-4 / 10-6)
Best case / worst case: 14-2 / 9-7
What happened: Wow…I just…we were so, so wrong about them. But it’s not our fault. They are the THIRD MOST INCONSISTENT team in D1 this year (behind Northwestern and Columbia; most consistent? #1 Indiana and #347 Gramblin’). They were two games worse than worst-case. Just…wow. FLAMES OUT.
Best conference win: A 5-point win? When it took 3 OTs on the road, even @ YSU, that’s what takes the cake.
Worst loss: See what I wrote above for YSU, except instead of “home” put “road”; instead of “41-point loss” put “51-point loss”; and instead of “2nd most minutes out of 23 players” put “2nd most out of 24”. Everything else is the same.
Their conference season was like: Police Academys IV, V, and VI. Their great start was PA I, of course, and they caught fire. Halfway through the year they were still pretty good (PA II: Their First Assignment) even though they stumbled late (PA III: Back In Training). Which team would show up in conference play? Why, PA IV: Citizens On Patrol, with Valpo playing the part of Captain Harris. Sandwiched around the Debacle In Detroit were 4 wins in 5 games (PA V: Assignment Miami Beach had some good moments. Heck, debuted at #1 in March 1988). But then for some reason they decided to play the rest of the season make PA VI: City Under Siege, which must be mentioned if for no other reason than it was directed by someone allegedly named “Peter Bonerz”, who finagled a PG rating in spite of his own name, then promptly led the Flames to 6 losses in their last 8 games.
Science Again! RPI Forecast declined repeated requests to comment on their UIC midseason projections. I was going to file a FOIA request but I accidentally wrote a FOIE gras request instead.
Chance of winning the conference tournament: 0.39%
Wait ’til next year? For some reason, both Police Academy and UIC Basketball are both coming back next year. For serious.
4) Wisconsin-Green Bay (16-14)
RPI: 165 (midseason: 220 / predicted finish: 189)
SOS: 155 (209 / 142)
W/L: 10-6 (6-7 / 7-9)
Best case / worst case: 11-5 / 3-13
What happened: Well, these guys were wronged by the computers, but in the good way: under-, rather than overestimated.
Best conference win: A 9-point home win over the Titans. POY: 19 shots, 2 assists (half the team points)
Worst loss: A 19-point drubbing at the hands of a team with comparatively nothing to play for. Now it’ll be four the hard way if they want to do something meaningful.
Their conference season was like: Kenneth Branagh’s Much Ado About Nothing, because WH was all worried about them, and lumped them in with UWM, but that turned out to be much ado about, well, nothing because it was a delightful, sun-drenched romp with Keifer Sykes taking a regal turn as Denzel Washington, Brendan Cougill stealing scenes with comedy as Michael Keaton, and Alec Brown as Keanu Reeves, you know, because everybody figured he had to do something worthwhile at some point given all his hype, and then all he did was fight a losing battle with an English accent.
Science Again! RPI Forecast projected that they weren’t as bad as their non-con showed, and they were borne out, largely.
Chance of winning the conference tournament: 4.99%
Wait ’til next year? They’ve been gunning for 2014 like we have for 2013: FO(U)R YEARS. They lose only Cougill (although that’s like losing two players. Maybe 2.5)
3) Wright State (19-11)
RPI: 162 (midseason: 220 / predicted finish: 189)
SOS: 246 (337 / 209)
W/L: 10-6 (9-4 / 8-8)
Best case / worst case: 12-4 / 4-12
What happened: Not to quote myself, but “They could be the best of all the mediocre schools in the league, wright?” Wright I are. They overcome the loss of Mays in a manner second only to VU overcoming BWood’s defection last year, and, I don’t mind saying, in a manner that their pathetic non-con totally didn’t prepare them for.
Best conference win: Knocking off Detroit at Detroit.
Worst loss: Losing to UIC. Twice. Which means they lost at home. Que embarazada.
Their conference season was like: The Office without Steve Carell. Yeah, it didn’t disintegrate and die when their star walked out the door, but cameos from JT Yoho, Cole Darling, and Jim Carrey weren’t quite enough to carry it in his absence. Plus they never quite recovered from the horrific injury sustained on the dunk attempt by Will Ferrell Reggie Arceneaux.
Science Again! RPI Forecast projected that they weren’t as bad as their non-con showed, and they were borne out, largely. Yes, I copied and pasted this from Green Bay above because it also worked. The major difference is even the #12 HL couldn’t drag their SOS where it was projected to be (where it needed to be).
Chance of winning the conference tournament: 3.55%
Wait ’til next year? Until Darling or Pacher pull the grad year transfer to Louisville or something.
2) Detroit (20-11)
RPI: 57 (midseason: 98 / predicted finish: 65)
SOS: 96 (89 / 78)
W/L: 12-4 (6-5 / 10-6)
Best case / worst case: 14-2 / 8-8
What happened: Detroit, being Detroit, always drops games you didn’t plan on them dropping (losing at home to WSU), but since this happens every year (especially @ CSU), maybe we should plan on the drops after all. Except that maybe that would make them stop drops and roll.
Best conference win: Knocking off Valpo at Valpo, despite only playing 10 good minutes out of 40.
Worst loss: Losing to CSU for the third straight year, even though this year CSU was more like CSI: Lame.
Their conference season was like: Married With Children: moments of unparalleled brilliance amidst longer periods of absolute dysfunction, but always less absolute dysfunction than the previous season, and so not as many moments of unparalleled brilliance.
Science Again! They were pretty much pegged for where they ended up, but they won 2 more games and so were a little higher. T100 SOS is a-vera nahce (in Strong Bad voice).
Chance of winning the conference tournament: 29.93%
Wait ’til next year? Even if McCallum goes pro, they can plug Brundidge in, and Bruinsma for Mini-wrath, and almost be right back where they were. If he comes back… 404’d
1) Valpo (24-7)
RPI: 60 (midseason: 110 / predicted finish: 97)
SOS: 179 (278 / 179)
W/L: 13-3 (9-4 / 10-6)
Best case / worst case: 16-0 / 9-7
What happened: Two long streaks, one of six wins that put VU from behind where they started to ahead; and the other, eight of nine, that kept them there to stay.
Best conference win: Coming back from ginormous deficit to embarrass Detroit on their home floor.
Worst loss: No, not the inverse of the above, but coming out in the conference home opener and sucking it up against Loyola, who turned out to be not nearly that good.
Their conference season was like: Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom. Why? Because everyone had such high hopes for it after the orignal, but instead of the sequel it was a prequel. Hear me out: last season was the surprise hit of 2012, so we expected, against all known evidence outside of Empire Strikes Back, that the sequel would be better than the original. Instead it was more like 2011–a lil more disappointing than the first–not because of results!–but because of expectations. With HL POY Harrison Ford returning, and an in-his-prime George Lucas coaching–how could anything go wrong? And then Son of MiniWrath tore a beating heart out right on our screen.
Well, Detroit always was a little bit Thuggee.
…all of a sudden, remembers “Saders of the Lost Ark” and … uh oh. This isn’t any good for the ole “i’m not Sader” idea. (trying vainly to think of a better metaphor) Anyway…it’s a good year when 24-7 is a little disappointing, and when you feel you should have won at least four of the seven.
Science Again! Take a look at where RPI Forecast predicted our SOS would end up. Then look at where it did. Yeah, that’s right.
Chance of winning the conference tournament: 59.48%
Wait ’til next year? No one expects the freshman class (nickname needed!) to come in and dominate the HL, though they could. Still, they don’t need to, not when the starting lineup could be all returners: Capo & Vashil up front; Rossi at 3, LVD at 2, Keith Carter at 1, with Coleman in there too somewhere. That’s not nothing. And neither is the incoming class. But wherever they end up it will be exciting, because there aren’t really expectations.