Who is the next Mid-Major Power? Could Valpo become one of the "Elite"MidMajors?

[VU2014]

Interesting comments in an article suggesting what 5 teams might be the next Mid-Major Power:

1: Rhode Island
2: MTSU
3: Saint Mary's
4: ISUr
5: Vermont

http://bustingbrackets.com/2017/04/17/ncaa-basketball-five-teams-that-can-emerge-as-mid-major-powers/

Both the Mountain West and Missouri Valley have been struggling, and the annual challenge between the two conferences may need a shake up with the Shockers departing. Former perennial tournament teams like New Mexico, UNLV, and Northern Iowa have declined. This will open up the door for a new program to take over the top spot.

ISU has had plenty of transfer success and younger players will have chances to develop under coach Dan Muller. The departure of three seniors will hurt, but the Redbirds have proved they have a great player development staff. While the team hasn't made the NCAA Tournament in since 1998, the MVC is wide open and Illinois State should be at the top of the conference.

I pulled this from the MVCfans board. I've thought about this a few times, wondering which school is going to become the next Gonzaga (Zags have taken success to a completely new level)/Butler/Creighton/Wichita State/VCU/Dayton etc. and have consistent success year in and year out?

I'm not sure I necessarily agree with his Top 5. Rhode Island and St. Mary's yes but the other 3 are pretty debatable, imo. All 5 are good programs for sure. 

Do you think Valpo could ever take that next level?

I believe we have the "brand" and pedigree to take the next level, but I'm not sure President Heckler or the Board are currently in the mindset of making that push to become a elite mid-major right now. To attempt to make a push into the ranks of a Butler means you need the folks at the very top be all in like Butler and Wichita States administrations has been. (its not just about having significant donors but definitely does help)

I think we are making a promising step forward as a program by receiving the opportunity to join a better Conference.

[VULB#62]

IMHO, it's always about administration backing.  Therefore, I voted #3.  And it is also a chicken/egg thing: When you are consistently in the dance you improve your reputation as an elite mid-major.  But to get to that point, you need the backing that enables you to get the players and command a decent SOS. A YES vote to me indicates that strong administration support is a given (even a driver).  Despite the positive things we've seen recently from our administration in the move to the MVC, I believe the jury is still out on the actual level of a long-term commitment to additional investment that would position us to make a run at an elite status.  Having said that, nothing would make me happier than to consistently hear Valpo's name always mentioned among the top 10 mid-majors every year and always having a place in the weekly top 25 poll discussions.

[vu72]

If the President/Board didn't care, why in the world would they agree to put the money into leaving the Horizon and undoubtedly also agree that to play in The Valley will require much more financial backing and facility upgrades.  Do you really think The Valley didn't ask for and get commitments in those areas?  What kind of commitment is everybody looking for?  We have jumped leagues twice now in the not to distance past. Those things aren't cheap.

[VU2014]

If the President/Board didn't care, why in the world would they agree to put the money into leaving the Horizon and undoubtedly also agree that to play in The Valley will require much more financial backing and facility upgrades.  Do you really think The Valley didn't ask for and get commitments in those areas?  What kind of commitment is everybody looking for?  We have jumped leagues twice now in the not to distance past. Those things aren't cheap.

MVC Offices: We'd like you guys to makes some ARC improvements

President Heckler: We'd be willing to put a new roof on the ARC... 

I'm kidding a little but I'm not sure about Valpo agreeing to any major ARC improvements. Maybe. But I don't think we can assume that the MVC required ARC improvements to get an invite.

Yes the President/Board support the Basketball program but if you look at budgets/facilities, etc compared to VCU, Butler, Dayton we're still a peg below those schools. Yes $ doesn't buy wins and facility improvements are not the end all be all, but they certainly could help with recruiting and attendance. I want to be clear I'm not throwing the Pres/Board under the bus for not supporting the program because the budget is competitive for the league we are moving into and was 2nd highest in the HL as of 2015.

[M]

Yay another facilities thread  (where is that beating the dead horse emoji thing at??)

[VULB#62]

If the President/Board didn't care, why in the world would they agree to put the money into leaving the Horizon and undoubtedly also agree that to play in The Valley will require much more financial backing and facility upgrades.  Do you really think The Valley didn't ask for and get commitments in those areas?  What kind of commitment is everybody looking for?  We have jumped leagues twice now in the not to distance past. Those things aren't cheap.

To be mid-major ELITE, it's about degree.  Have the president and board stepped up for the MVC move?  Of course, and that's great.  Do they care?  Yes.  And, as you point out, that requires an immediate cost just to get out of the HL.  Let's say it's a half million.  And let's say the MVC extracted a commitment to, uh, replace the seating in the ARC.  Money well spent.

Going forward, however, it seems to me that we are then facing a fork in the road. And in my mind here's where those two directions might take us

🏀  The fork on the left allows Valpo, once those initial expenditures are made, to then continue at the budget level it has maintained for the past several years.  In that case, we certainly will do OK in the MVC -- probably sitting somewhere in the middle of the pack (4th to 6th) 3 out of 4 years and then challenging for an MVC championship 1 out of 4 years.  Are we going to the dance regularly in this situation?  Does that define us as mid-major ELITE?

       OR

🏀  The fork on the right is where Valpo takes that initial half million and just adds it (or a good portion of it) annually to the MBB budget going forward -- to operations [coaching/players/travel]  and recruiting, but also in terms of marketing and regular facilities improvements (beyond the initial MVC commitment, whatever that might be). That  would bring Valpo up to what St. Mary's now spends and would put us at #4 in the MVC (we were #2 in the HL). I would suggest that this added investment on an annual basis might allow the MBB program to consistently recruit and retain minimum 3 star or higher recruits.... and so on, and so on, so that we are always in the MVC top three and always in the championship hunt.  And in those years when we come in second, we are serious contenders for at-large berths.  Is that mid-major ELITE?

This poll focuses on ELITE, not being competitive or good.  A mid-major MBB team has to be great year after year to be recognized as elite.

[bbtds]

If the President/Board didn't care, why in the world would they agree to put the money into leaving the Horizon and undoubtedly also agree that to play in The Valley will require much more financial backing and facility upgrades.  Do you really think The Valley didn't ask for and get commitments in those areas?  What kind of commitment is everybody looking for?  We have jumped leagues twice now in the not to distance past. Those things aren't cheap.

There is a reason in the movie Jerry MaGuire the athlete said "Show me the money." There is talk and there is doing. In Valpo's case there has only been talk. "Show us the building/concrete sign of committment!

[VU2014]

I just don't want the leadership at the very top (President/Board) to settle.  I don't think thats too unreasonable of an ask.

I'm confident Coach Lottich and Mark LaBarbera will keep pushing the envelope and will do the most possible with the resources given to them, but I am not sure I can say the same with the very top after we make this move to the MVC. All I ask is that the administration to not settle with where we are now.

[vu72]

As for recruiting, remember that a member of the Alumni, as part of the Forever Valpo campaign, gave $2 million to endow Men's Basketball Recruiting.  I'm not sure but I kinda doubt any other members of The Valley have a similar trust fund.  Who knows.  I guess we are all speculating (shocking for a fan board, I know... ) regarding future spending on basketball success.

I would think that the President and Board fully understand that spending at the same level won't cut it in The Valley (those people are pretty bright)...just sayin.  We will find out soon enough.

[vu84v2]

My list of elite mid-majors in the last ten years:
-Butler (no longer a mid-major due to going to one of the Big 6 conferences)
-Creighton (no longer a mid-major due to going to one of the Big 6 conferences)
-Gonzaga
-Wichita State
-VCU

That is a darn short list, but it is consistent with the previous comment that you need strong performance over a long period to justify 'elite'.

Commitment from the senior administration is likely necessary to achieve being elite, but it is also possible that you could have commitment (example: remodel the ARC) and still not be elite.

[ml2]

Similar to the conference realignment discussions, I think the 6 year average KenPom rating leads to some interesting insights on this topic.

Of the top 64 teams, just 9 are traditional mid-majors (they are from outside the Power 5, the old Big East and the Mountain West). Of those 9, 4 have been recently poached by the power conferences and no longer count as mid-majors.

5. Gonzaga - you can't get more elite than the Zags, only Kentucky, Kansas, Louisville and Duke have been better.
12. Wichita State - no longer a mid-major with move to American
22. Creighton - no longer a mid-major with move to BE
23. VCU - the nation's premier remaining mid-major after Gonzaga - definitely elite
28. St. Mary's - KenPom shows pretty clearly that they are already elite. Multiple at large bids, plus a top 30 AVERAGE ranking over the last 6 seasons. Both their 2013 and 2017 teams were better, according to KenPom, than the 30 win team that lost in the ARC in 2016. Maybe bias against their small facility, along with the Gonzaga shadow keeps people from realizing just how good the Gaels have been.
33. Xavier - no longer a mid-major with move to BE
39. Butler - no longer a mid-major with move to BE.
44. BYU
45. Dayton - I think the Cougars and Flyers are on the edge of elite status, but based on their top 50 average, you can still make a strong case - though there is a definite gap compared to the other mid-majors above them, both current and former.

Interestingly, there are no mid-majors ranked between 46 and 64. Then, from 64 to 100 the majority of teams are in fact mid-majors (21 of the 36). So when we talk about "making the jump" it really is a major leap (not just an incremental step) to burst forth into this "elite" and "national" group. Below are the mid-majors who ranked in the top 100 on average over the last 6 years. This is the "best of the rest" group of programs that have done the most, WITHOUT making the leap into "elite" status. It seems likely to me that if another programs does move up, it will come from this group.

65. Northern Iowa - no one's done better, without breaking out nationally, than the Panthers.
67. Middle Tennessee 68. Davidson 71. Belmont 73. Harvard 74. Illinois State 76. New Mexico State 78. Richmond 80. St. Joseph's 81. Valpo 82. Iona 84. St. Bonaventure 85. SFA 86. Princeton 87. Akron 88. George Washington 93. Louisiana Tech 94. South Dakota St. 98. Vermont 99. UMass 100. Rhode Island

Lastly a couple other programs worth mentioning.

103. St Louis - Rick Majerus got them a couple elite seasons at the beginning of the 6 year window, but the last three years have been brutal, and the average puts the Billikens just out of the top 100. Based on their almost new 80 million dollar arena and the amount of money they are willing to spend on a new coach, there is definitely an expectation that St Louis can be a lot better than where they are currently at.
104. Murray State - Two recent down year's after Steve Prohm's departure knocked them out of the top 100, but they have a large and engaged fan base for a mid-major, plus decades of domination in the weak pre-Belmont OVC.
192. Grand Canyon - They rank low because of their recent transition to D1 and because they are in the WAC. However, their ties to USA Basketball and Jerry Colangelo along with major financial resources as a large for-profit university are unique attributes that make a lot of people single them out as a potential breakout program, even though there's no history to back it up yet.

[vu84v2]

I usually like a more data driven list, but I was just thinking of schools that are regularly in the NCAA tournament and have advanced to multiple elite eights (and preferably at least one Final four). I can see adding Xavier with the same justification as Creighton and Butler (though I might now argue that Creighton does not belong on that short list of elites). Saint Mary's has just not had enough prestige driven from their tournament appearances. BYU has very few tournament appearances and no runs to my knowledge. Dayton could be considered.

[a3uge]

Gonzaga is not a mid major.

[VU2014]

I don't consider Gonzaga or any of the Big East schools Mid-Majors. I don't even consider Wichita State a mid-major anymore. The AAC is not a Mid-Major conference, imo.

[VULB#62]

Gonzaga is not a mid major.

I don't consider Gonzaga or any of the Big East schools Mid-Majors. I don't even consider Wichita State a mid-major anymore. The AAC is not a Mid-Major conference, imo.

Gonzaga is a great program that plays in a mid-major conference (WCC) that is rated BELOW (11) the MVC (10) by Sagarin.  By definition, Gonzaga is a mid-major, despite its sustained level of success and NCAA appearances.  They become major if they move to one of the major conferences (P-5 plus BE).

[IrishDawg]

Gonzaga is a great program that plays in a mid-major conference (WCC) that is rated BELOW (11) the MVC (10) by Sagarin.  By definition, Gonzaga is a mid-major, despite its sustained level of success and NCAA appearances.  They become major if they move to one of the major conferences (P-5 plus BE).

I don't get this line of thinking.  Gonzaga is not a mid-major simply because of the league they play in.  They are a major program.  They had 2 McDonald's All-Americans on their team last year.  They have 13 players since 2000 that have played in the NBA.  The basketball program made nearly $5 million in profit last year, which was more than Oregon and South Carolina (2 of the other schools in the F4).  The only major leagues they could possibly join are the Big East and the Pac 12.  Pac 12 won't take them because they don't play football and the Big East won't take them because they would literally have to fly across the country to play half their league games (and forget the non-revenue sports), so they're stuck in the WCC until travel becomes more feasible, but despite the conference they're in, there's nothing mid-major about Gonzaga.

[VULB#62]

Gonzaga is a great program that plays in a mid-major conference (WCC) that is rated BELOW (11) the MVC (10) by Sagarin.  By definition, Gonzaga is a mid-major, despite its sustained level of success and NCAA appearances.  They become major if they move to one of the major conferences (P-5 plus BE).

I don't get this line of thinking.  Gonzaga is not a mid-major simply because of the league they play in.  They are a major program.  They had 2 McDonald's All-Americans on their team last year.  They have 13 players since 2000 that have played in the NBA.  The basketball program made nearly $5 million in profit last year, which was more than Oregon and South Carolina (2 of the other schools in the F4).  The only major leagues they could possibly join are the Big East and the Pac 12.  Pac 12 won't take them because they don't play football and the Big East won't take them because they would literally have to fly across the country to play half their league games (and forget the non-revenue sports), so they're stuck in the WCC until travel becomes more feasible, but despite the conference they're in, there's nothing mid-major about Gonzaga.

They have 18 games against WCC opponents. Put them in the ACC, BE, B1G, PAC 10 week to week and talk to me after that kind of season is over. Gonzaga is great. No question. They are the #1 mid-major out there. But they are still a mid-major. They pull it all together nicely once they qualify for the dance as either the WCC champ or an at-large for a couple of weeks. But in a P-5 setting would they be as sexy?

Let's put this arguement on hold until we see how WSU does in the AAC next year. I believe that is a pretty good barometer of the difference between a good mid-major and, on a week - to - week basis, playing with the big boys.

[a3uge]

Gonzaga is a great program that plays in a mid-major conference (WCC) that is rated BELOW (11) the MVC (10) by Sagarin.  By definition, Gonzaga is a mid-major, despite its sustained level of success and NCAA appearances.  They become major if they move to one of the major conferences (P-5 plus BE).

I don't get this line of thinking.  Gonzaga is not a mid-major simply because of the league they play in.  They are a major program.  They had 2 McDonald's All-Americans on their team last year.  They have 13 players since 2000 that have played in the NBA.  The basketball program made nearly $5 million in profit last year, which was more than Oregon and South Carolina (2 of the other schools in the F4).  The only major leagues they could possibly join are the Big East and the Pac 12.  Pac 12 won't take them because they don't play football and the Big East won't take them because they would literally have to fly across the country to play half their league games (and forget the non-revenue sports), so they're stuck in the WCC until travel becomes more feasible, but despite the conference they're in, there's nothing mid-major about Gonzaga.

They have 18 games against WCC opponents. Put them in the ACC, BE, B1G, PAC 10 week to week and talk to me after that kind of season is over. Gonzaga is great. No question. They are the #1 mid-major out there. But they are still a mid-major. They pull it all together nicely once they qualify for the dance as either the WCC champ or an at-large for a couple of weeks. But in a P-5 setting would they be as sexy?

Let's put this arguement on hold until we see how WSU does in the AAC next year. I believe that is a pretty good barometer of the difference between a good mid-major and, on a week - to - week basis, playing with the big boys.

They made it to the national championship game last year. Are you suggesting their budget or recruiting would go *down* as a member of the PAC 12?

The only thing Gonzaga has in common with any mid major program is their in-conference schedule. They do not have the scheduling problems, budget problems, seeding problems, and exposure problems that mid majors have. They have been able to retain and pay their coach and attract NBA-callibar players. If Gonzaga is a mid major, then referring to teams as mid majors is asinine.

[ml2]

I was most interested in what the KenPom data said about "elite" status and not on the definition of who is and isn't a mid-major. The folks having the conversation seemed to be using a solely conference based criteria (ie. P5, BE and American are major - everybody else is a mid), so I just went with that. I think there are strong arguments both ways.

[IrishDawg]

They have 18 games against WCC opponents. Put them in the ACC, BE, B1G, PAC 10 week to week and talk to me after that kind of season is over. Gonzaga is great. No question. They are the #1 mid-major out there. But they are still a mid-major. They pull it all together nicely once they qualify for the dance as either the WCC champ or an at-large for a couple of weeks. But in a P-5 setting would they be as sexy?

Let's put this arguement on hold until we see how WSU does in the AAC next year. I believe that is a pretty good barometer of the difference between a good mid-major and, on a week - to - week basis, playing with the big boys.

I absolutely think they'd be just as sexy.  Probably even sexier because they'd get even more games against tourney teams and be favored in most of them.  Just going off KenPom ratings, here's what Butler, Creighton and Xavier have all done since going from a mid-major conferences to a major one:

Butler - 4 years in Big East (43.5) - 4 years prior in A-10 and HL (51.75)
Creighton - 4 years in Big East (41) - 4 years prior in MVC (64)
Xavier - 4 years in Big East (30) - 4 years prior in A-10 (47)

The fact that Gonzaga has never ranked lower than 49th during the entire history of KenPom, has an average rating over the 16 year period of 22.8125 which is literally better than every program in the NCAA over that span except for Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, Michigan State, Florida, Louisville and Wisconsin.  You're welcome to your opinion, but KenPom, Sagarin and other metrics take into account the fact that Gonzaga plays in the WCC, and they're still better than most every program on a year in, year out basis and would win or be right at the top of most leagues.

In terms of the discussion and whether or not Valpo can essentially get to a place where they're a major program in a mid-major league (because essentially that's what all these teams were/are), they certainly can, but I think like most it's going to take time, money and consistent success to get there.

[elephtheria47]

Gonzaga is interesting to me because they get the talent and the hype.

They get great preseason games but they really don't get challenged in the conference. Up until recently, i think they have underperformed in the NCAAT given their seeding and expectations. Granted, this last year or two have been on another level for them. Could they maintain success over the course of a season game in and game out in a better conference?

I think being on the west coast and having the other west coast teams generally be not so good the last decade has helped them with getting their games/hype on espn as well.