Arch Madness 2017-18

[Hrtnfldhse]

ILSU fan here.  I bought all session tickets and will not be going till Friday.   2 tickets in section 103.   $25 a piece. 

[talksalot]

So... As the 10-Seed, we get #7... who will it be...  I think I got this... but we'll know a lot more in about 18 hours

6 MISSOURI STATE     7 - 9   Bradley   @ UNI   RPI 116   VS Indiana state 2-0, Vs. Evansville 1-1, VS UNI 1-0
7 EVANSVILLE     6 - 10    @ Indiana State   Southern Illinois   RPI 129   VS Indiana State 0-1, VS Missouri State 1-1
7 INDIANA STATE     6 - 10    Evansville   Bradley   RPI 186   VS MoST 0-2, VS Evansville 1-0
9 NORTHERN IOWA  6 - 11     Missouri State  RPI 146  Vs. Indiana State 0-2, VS Missouri State 0-1, Vs. Evansville 1-1

SO...
If Missouri State loses both, 7-11, would win the tie breaker with IndSt; and the RPI would be close with Evansville
If Missouri State wins tonight, their RPI would probably become unreachable, and clinch the 6 seed, holding all tie breakers
If Evansville wins tonight, they lock #8, and would probably get the #7 with a win over Southern Illinois with a higher RPI
If Evansville wins tonight and Saturday and Missouri State loses tonight and beats UNI, both ending at 8-10, the RPI would be close for the #6 seed
If Indiana State wins tonight, they lock #8, and would get the #7 with a win over Bradley
If Indiana State wins tonight, and loses on Saturday to Bradley, looks like Evansville would take the #7
If Indiana State loses tonight, and loses on Saturday to Bradley, They fall to #9 if UNI beats Missouri State
Where does that leave UNI?
If UNI wins on Saturday at home over Missouri State, they become 7-11, and win the tiebreaker with Indiana State, moving up to #8

so... we could play either Missouri State, Evansville or Indiana State... wearing our road uniforms, at 8:35pm March 1st on ESPN3.

[talksalot]

Dust is settling down for the Rambler Invitational at the Scottrade Center...

Loyola 75 SIU 56
Illinois State 89 Drake 81, Overtime
Bradley 82 Missouri State 78
Indiana State 58 Evansville 53

With one game left on everyone's schedule...standings with RPI and current streak

Loyola  14-3   34  6 Wins   hosts Illinois State  #1 Seed
Sou Ill  11-6  85  1 Loss    at Evansville
Ill St   10-7    86  2 Wins    at Loyola
Drake   10-7  136  1 Loss    hosts Valpo
Bradley  9-8  95 1 Win    hosts Indiana State
Mssr St  7-10  125 3 Losses    at Northern Iowa
Ind St    7-10 179 1 Win       at Bradley
Evansvl   6-11  141 4 Losses    hosts Southern Illinois
Nor Ia   6-11 145 1 Win    Hosts Missouri State
Valpo     5-12  185  1 Loss     at Drake  #10 Seed

We could have a 3-way tie at 11-7
We could have a 3-way tie at 10-8
We could have a 4-way tie at 7-11
The only thing I can say for sure...
Valpo plays in the last game on Thursday.
Loyola plays at noon on Friday.

The top 5 teams now will be the top 5 teams on Sunday

[oklahomamick]

I would like to avoid Missouri state because I think it's a bad match-up.  Any team with a good 4 is trouble for us.  We struggle against teams who have a good center or power forward. 

[SanityLost17]

I think we want to avoid Northern Iowa and Missouri State at all costs.  I think we lose both of those games.   

Personally, I would like to see us play Evansville again.   We should not have lost to them twice. 

[VU2014]

I think we want to avoid Northern Iowa and Missouri State at all costs.  I think we lose both of those games.   

Personally, I would like to see us play Evansville again.   We should not have lost to them twice. 

I think we can beat Northern Iowa, even if we're 0-2 against them this season.

A healthy Illinois State, Missouri State and Loyola are the 3 worst matchups, imo. I think Drake, SIU, and Indiana State are the "best" matchups.

[Pgmado]

The only way Valparaiso is playing Evansville or UNI is in the title game.

Valparaiso is playing either Indiana State or Missouri State in the first round (likely Indiana State). Then either Southern Illinois or Illinois State in the second round (likely Southern Illinois).

[NativeCheesehead]

Don't think we should be overly worried about matchups.

Bottom line: A win and a close loss to the #2 would be a really nice lift going into the offseason. A double digit loss in the first round would make this a long summer with a lot more questions than answers.

I am going for the whole tournament just to experience it. I've been told not to expect much with WSU gone, as they occupied much of the building in recent years. But it's bound to be a much better experience than Detroit, and St Louis has done so much with their downtown in the last 10-15 years.

If the weather is decent I won't have to set foot in a car for 3 and half days. Worth it for that alone! (Ok, so i'll take an Uber to the AB Brewery.)

[VU2014]

Don't think we should be overly worried about matchups.

Bottom line: A win and a close loss to the #2 would be a really nice lift going into the offseason. A double digit loss in the first round would make this a long summer with a lot more questions than answers.

The things is depending on who the matchups are could determine the difference from a win and a loss. We simply aren't a good matchup with some teams which makes it somewhat ok to "worry" about in my book.

[SanityLost17]

I would like to avoid Missouri state because I think it's a bad match-up.  Any team with a good 4 is trouble for us.  We struggle against teams who have a good center or power forward.

Smits/Sorolla have been effective this season against undersized centers.  When they face a legit center such as Koch they just look terrible out there. 

[VU2014]

I would like to avoid Missouri state because I think it's a bad match-up.  Any team with a good 4 is trouble for us.  We struggle against teams who have a good center or power forward.

Smits/Sorolla have been effective this season against undersized centers.  When they face a legit center such as Koch they just look terrible out there. 

Koch is pretty undersized and is more of 4. Smits/Sorolla were taken to the woodshed against Phil Fayne, who is leaps and bounds more athletic than them. Sorolla is less of a liability on defense, while Smits is more effective on offense, barring any silly turnovers  he's making.

[vu72]

I would like to avoid Missouri state because I think it's a bad match-up.  Any team with a good 4 is trouble for us.  We struggle against teams who have a good center or power forward.

Smits/Sorolla have been effective this season against undersized centers.  When they face a legit center such as Koch they just look terrible out there. 

Koch is pretty undersized and is more of 4. Smits/Sorolla were taken to the woodshed against Phil Fayne, who is leaps and bounds more athletic than them. Sorolla is less of a liability on defense, while Smits is more effective on offense, barring any silly turnovers  he's making.

If we think back a few years to Cory Johnson, we also had an undersized center who played the five out of necessity.  Cory would school guys like the kid from Butler, Andrew Smith (God rest his soul) who was way bigger but also way slower.  We need to continually work to find plays that take advantage of our size, not just have 7 footers running screens at the top of the key.

[talksalot]

Welllllll.... about that Missouri State - Drake Game...this past SUNDAY

https://www.news-leader.com/story/sports/college/msu/2018/02/19/six-msu-players-and-superfan-were-ejected-sundays-game-heres-why/351354002/

Here's the MOSt storyline on their game Wednesday against Bradley

SPRINGFIELD – On a night dedicated to Missouri State's five seniors, it was junior Jarred Dixon who stole the spotlight. The lanky guard scored a career-high 24 points and dropped in six 3-pointers against a visiting Bradley club that rallied from behind in the final two-and-a-half minutes to defeat the Bears, 82-78, here Wednesday.

MSU (17-13, 7-10 MVC), which dropped its third straight narrow decision, also got 20 points from senior Jarrid Rhodes, just one shy of his career high. Freshman Mustafa Lawrence added 11 points for the home side.

All five starters scored in double figures for Bradley (19-11, 9-8 MVC), including Nate Kennell who scored 20 points behind six treys of his own. The Braves also capitalized on an abundance of foul shots, converting 25-of-31 (.806) at the stripe.

Missouri State shot 100-percent at the free throw line but got there just nine times on the evening.

[justducky]

Koch is pretty undersized and is more of 4.

Koch is listed at 6' 10" and I believe that to be reasonably accurate. His shifty pivot moves and shooting range remind me more of a KVW only better (slightly). Admittedly the total number of UNI games I have watched with him participating might be 12 or less but when he is on he can hurt anybody.

[talksalot]

Indiana State has done the math on the Bottom of the seeding charts...

"Indiana State's victory coupled with Bradley's win at Missouri State tonight sets up a huge regular season finale on Saturday. Sycamores will need to capture their fourth MVC road victory of the season against the Braves and UNI will need to hold serve at home against Missouri State to give the Sycamores the No. 6 seed at Arch Madness and avoid Thursday's opening round."


so I gather that The Sycs lose the tie breaker to Missouri State; and win the tie-breaker over Evansville... so if Indiana State loses to Bradley OR UNI beats Missouri State, we get Indiana State on Thursday night...

I'm hoping someone at the MVC office will put together all of the options for Saturday outcomes...

[FWalum]

We need to continually work to find plays that take advantage of our size, not just have 7 footers running screens at the top of the key.

I have thought almost all season that we never really get the ball to the 2 bigs on the block.  70% of the time our bigs were 20+ feet from the basket setting screens, hard to score and maybe more importantly rebound from that position.  I realize that the high ball screen offenses are all the rage, and these screens were originally designed to create driving situations for our perimeter players, strengths for Max, Tevonn and Joe. In this offense, when he gets the ball, Derrik is almost always 10 to 12 feet from the basket and after holding the ball for a few seconds either passes or attempts a move to the basket, many times, in my opinion, this is too late. I guess I am old school, but I would prefer an approach more like what Cameron Krutwig showed against our bigs in the recent game with Loyola, deep, explosively quick moves or dropsteps to the basket.  Rarely did you see a player like Kevin Van Wijk hold the ball the way Derrik does, primarily because he got the ball very deep with the defender on his back or hip. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s042JxAsQHo

[VUGrad1314]

Looks like we'll get either Missouri State or Evansville in the play in game. We went 0-4 against these teams but the only one we truly had no chance in was the first meeting with the Bears. In the road meetings with these two teams we absolutely could have, even should have, won. I expect a close hard fought game no matter who we play with a legitimate chance of a Valpo victory. Go Valpo!

[oklahomamick]

I hope it's not Missouri state. The 4 position kills us

[VU2014]

Check out how close Evansville and Missouri State are in the RPI rankings.  I'd rather play Evansville. Better matchup for us.

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/967557702842011648

[VU2014]

As of right now according to Real Time RPI we are going to face Missouri State. Missouri State is 131 and Evansville is 132 on the RPI rankings.

I'm personally hoping we some play Evansville. The Alize Johnson matchup at the 4 is a serious concern. Also Obediah Church is a tough matchup (a former Valpo recruit).

Missouri State is riding a 4 game losing streak. They are 2-9 since their last win over us back in mid-January. They are scuffling so maybe they are a "better" matchup. Regardless it won't be easy.

[VU2014]

Valpo will be playing the Missouri State at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday.

Even if we win on Thursday it will be a brutal path. If we win then we play the next day on short rest and not much time for the guys to recover for a team with fresh legs in SIU.

[valpotx]

I want to beat them, if nothing more than to just shut their announcers up about the step up in play, as if we couldn't have competed against MVC schools in the past...even though we beat MoSt every time during those years.  All other announcers were great, but MoSt was pitiful.

[valpopal]

Valpo will be playing the Missouri State at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday.

In VU's two games against Missouri State, Alize Johnson scored 35 points and had 29 rebounds. In those games Johnson averaged about 30 minutes but only had two fouls. If he does that again, I am not sure how the Crusaders win. I don't know if Valpo could go at Johnson early hoping to get him in foul trouble (his history shows he usually doesn't get called for fouls much against anyone) or if a defensive adjustment could be made. In Johnson's two games against Bradley, he averaged only 6.5 points, and in one of those games he got in early foul trouble so only played 15 minutes. That is the only conference team to have such success against him. If I were Lottich, I'd be watching video of those games. (Drake did have one game where Johnson was held to only 2 points on 0-9 shooting, and I would watch tape of that game as well.)

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/ValleyHoops/status/967768843581100038

[VU2014]

Kenpom seeding predictions for Arch Madness.

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/967864111676588033