Valpo at Bradley Game Thread, Wed., Jan. 29th, 6:00p, ESPN+

[valpo95]

All five home teams won tonight, again showing how important defending home court can be in this conference. Valpo should be able to do that Saturday, but next Wednesday will be a real test, perhaps the night for a surprising upset special! 

The MVC is second among all conferences for the best W-L% at home.

As of today, Valpo has already played road games against three of the four top teams in conference (UNI, Bradley, SIU).  If Valpo goes 5-4 (perhaps winning out at home, or dropping one game at home and picking up one game on the road), they will end the conference season 9-9. If they go 4-5, they will end up the season 8-10. As part of the discussion from September, a team that goes 10-8 in the MVC is often tied for third or fourth in conference, and 8-10 is often tied for sixth in conference.

We all want Valpo do do well, yet we should not discount how difficult it is to win in this league. The MVC is so much more difficult than the Horizon or Summit - there are so many good teams and no relatively easy wins.

[Just Sayin]

I predict this year's team will have a worse record than last year.  Fazekas won't be the savior and the team will continue to underperform and get beat.

Prove me wrong players and coaches.

[VUGrad1314]

We are now eighth in the standings and our path out of the PIG while still alive doesn't look great right now. At least we have head to head over both 5-4 teams right now. We HAVE to beat Illinois State. If we can beat Missouri State at home when  we play them later it will help a lot but those road games in Terre Haute and Des Moines just took on an absolutely critical importance as we are now two games out of 5th. We need to have both to avoid Thursday it looks like. We're improving year to year but are we improving enough? I really don't know the answer to that to be honest...

As I said before the decision on whether to keep Coach Lottich will be a tough one. The record will be better but not a lot better. But it wasn't as horrible as some predicted when last year's large number of transfers happened (the obvious over reaction).  We are so close to winning but many times bad shooting and mental mistakes let us down just enough to change the outcome of the game. I think our AD will give Lottich a four year extension based on their coach employment history. I was really disappointed when they gave the previous WBB coach an extension but that is the Valpo Way. Let's hope Coach Lottich can figure it out and that if he doesn't by another 4 years Greg Tonagel would want to make the move to his alma mater and spend more than 6 years at this school. BTW, I thought the game announcers on ESPN went out of their way, almost going beyond neutral, to be fair to Valpo, when calling the game on the ESPN+ video.

Four years is a lot to commit to a guy who hasn't avoided Thursday and an around .500 coach without Alec Peters. I know he'd have a much better record in the Horizon League but we're not in the Horizon League. We need a Valley coach and before we commit four years to him I think we need more consistent proof that Lottich is and can be a Valley coach. He gets great talent though but talent and $5 will get you a footlong at Subway just ask Missouri State. You have to be able to coach them up and win games. Maybe that's coming really soon, maybe it isn't.  It feels like the direction of the program hangs in the balance of this decision and I honestly don't know which way to go. I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make (and live with) this call. This is a legacy defining decision for Lottich and MLB.

[IrishDawg]

As an outsider, I think the reaction to this single game by some is over the top.  Valpo is performing right around their expectations for the year even before the Fazekas injury.  Their core is still young. I'm not saying that Lottich is a fantastic coach, but I also don't see this year as underachievement. 

They will likely wind up in a similar place despite being younger in a much more difficult version of the MVC. I don't think that means success, but it certainly doesn't mean failure.

Personally, I'd keep him through JFL's career at Valpo and then make an assessment as to the direction of the program. Tonagel isn't going anywhere anytime soon in my opinion.

[NativeCheesehead]

The main issue is that we need a coach who can outperform the limitations here. Poor facilities, small school/high academic standards, declining game day atmosphere, etc. If I may make a cross sport reference: Speaking in baseball value terms, Matt Lottich is a replacement level MVC coach. Not bad, but not going to overcome the limitations. And when other aspects of our department are at or below replacement level that just doesn't get the job done.

And of course this isn't all on Lottich, it's an unfair situation to put any coach in. "So yeah, we're going to need you to go ahead and compete in a conference that has decades more success than your program. You're going to make less than most of them. Your budget is decent but you have to fundraise a portion of that yourself. You better recruit kids who can cut it in a very demanding academic environment. Oh, and you're going to play in a half empty high school gym on most nights. Have fun!"

[VALPO LI]

Our High School gym is half full most nights!
On average 57% full this season

[FWalum]

BTW, I thought the game announcers on ESPN went out of their way, almost going beyond neutral, to be fair to Valpo, when calling the game on the ESPN+ video.

I agree, what I didn't like is that there were times I wanted to know what happened in the game and they were just talking about some random innocuous fact about one of the teams and not explaining what had happened. A ton of gab but very little actual game analysis.

[vu72]

Poor facilities

There is nothing poor about the basketball facilities.  The ARC seating and concessions are poor which have nothing to do with the practice facilities, weight room, medical or nutrition available to the players.

[wh]

The one thing we did do well is create 10 TO's. We might be down 20 otherwise. A little better shot selection and finding a way to get Ryan the ball more, and we might climb back into this. I'm feeling optimistic.

I'm still encouraged that we displayed the energy, drive, dedication and raw talent to come all the way back from 20 down mid way through the 2nd half to 3 down in the late stages of the game - on the road, against a good opponent, in front of a hostile crowd.  Not many teams could do that. We're getting closer.   

[GoldenCrusader87]

Wow I'm not against giving the guy 2 years so he can finish out with JFL. But 4 years? What's he done to merit a 4 year extension? And why the fear we need to lock him up? Are other programs really going to be knocking at his door seducing him to come to their program? For more money? If so, based on what? He'd be much better off learning from this experience, being thankful Valpo gave him a shot when nobody else T a comparable level would've had reason to since he'd barely had a coaching career as an assistant and was third it fourth on the bench at that.

From there he'd be better off taking an assistant job at a bigger program. Could still make good money. He's got a lot to learn. Maybe go back to Stanford or the Pac 12 where's he's got some notoriety.

Valpo should bring in a proven winner with a Valpo background. That's Greg Tonagel. We'd be fortunate if he'd entertain the offer as we didn't give him a shot the last time around.

If the bar set for giving someone a 4 year extension is a mediocre record with declining student interest and a half full arena, then that's very telling.

It's paying off for Valpo WBB. Hiring someone from the outside. And she didn't even have the head coaching tenure Greg has had.

We do not see player development under this regime. Talent? You bet. Credit that to recruiting under-recruited guys. No doubt he'd be good in a talent acquisition role. But no evidence of player development. Mileek still gets in major foul trouble.

Nick does not seem to be getting better than the talent he had coming in. Daniel is playing better but his intangibles are still what carries him.

And we've said it going into the season, it's a bad sign when John gets the PT he's getting. No offense to him I know he's the fan favorite and I respect his work ethic and know he's a veteran on the court. But his playing time is seemingly a testament to the more talented players behind him not progressing nicely enough to substantiate to substantiate playing time

Like others have said - I hope I'm wrong. Matt can be a mid major level head coach in the future and garner success like Porter did. I just don't know that it's possible for that to happen while he's the HC at Valpo. May be better served coaching under someone else.

Look at Diebler and Powell. Both assistants at major high level programs learning a lot Im sure.

[NativeCheesehead]

Other facilities? Like our new nutrition center which was literally a hallway when most of us were on campus? At BEST, our support facilities are slightly below par from our conference mates.

But I would argue the experience of the fans, from parking to seating and everything in between, is just as if not more important than everything else to the players. When the building is loud the players feed off it. Anyone who attended any of the HL tournament games or NIT can agree with that.

[oklahomamick]

Wh - did you copy and paste that from a previous game...?   

[valpolaw]

A four year extension is laughable at this point.

I'd be calling Bryce begging him to come back if I were the AD.

[oklahomamick]

Or Powell

[wh]

Wh - did you copy and paste that from a previous game...?   

Believe me, Mick, I understand the disappointment as we continue to dig deep holes, claw our way back, only to falter down the stretch. That said, I'm also trying to remember that we're still in the first half of a 2-year marathon that will determine whether we're on the road to recovery, or mired in mediocrity. Thus, I'm looking for little improvements that while they may have been "too little too late" for a given game, give me hope that we can finish out this season on a positive note, and come back next year ready to compete for our first conference championship.

[VUGrad1314]

The biggest issue I see is that the decision on Lottich has to be made NOW. After THIS year. If he was fresh off a conference championship after next season it's a different story but any extension would be paying him for what he MIGHT do and not what he HAS done. That's what makes this such a hard decision. I do think we're close but I've thought we had turned a corner in the Lottich era multiple times before only to be sorely disappointed. This might just be another one of those times and it's hard to get behind committing multiple years to him while I still have that feeling.

[SanityLost17]

If we are 8-10 / 9-9 this season it will be a BIG SUCCESS and based on roster turnover and Fazekas's injury I think for people to think anything else are INSANE with expectations for the year that are completely UNREASONABLE given our current roster. 

We had a lot of roster turnover,  Fazekas has been out and is just getting back into it, and our 2 best players are a freshman (clay) and a sophomore (JFL).  Every time we take the floor in MVC play we have the worst 5 man in the conference.  McMillan has improved a lot this year but is still a work in progress and Krikke has had moments but he is still just a freshman and is a bit of a project himself.   Sackey is having a sophomore slump which is really not that unusual, lots of really good players have went through them, but you can see the potential there.  We simply don't have enough shooters on the team and it does appear some help is on the way next year.  Eron and Robinson have been really HOT/COLD when it comes to hitting 3's and that is not on the coach.

I agree that we probably take too many 3's and Lottich needs to adjust when they are not falling, but I REALLY LIKE the offensive improvements this year.  Offense is getting better.  Defense is weaker but it has been good the last few years, we are mostly struggling with defense more because of missing pieces and youth than effort.       

Grow the hell up people.      I don't give a darn if you are tired of the excuse of "youth".   We had roster turnover, so now we are young again, deal with it.   Recruits coming in next year look to be difference makers.   Clay/Sackey/JFL/Krikke look like they are going to be something over the next 2 years.   The negativity here sometimes is insane.   

Compromise.   2 year extension.   By then we will know what we have.   

[VUGrad1314]

I think I'd be willing to do two years as a sort of bridge deal to prove what we've got once and for all in Lottich. He succeeds he gets a fat long term deal He fails he's gone and we search for someone else. For anyone pining for Bryce that would also be the timetable for the end of his Vanderbilt checks and for those looking to go in a different direction Diebler might be ready for a head coaching job by then and Tonagel would still be there too in all likelihood. (I'd suggest Powell as well but I don't think he's coming back. He was after all offered the head job in the first place. Why decline it just to take the same job years later?)

[wh]

If we are 8-10 / 9-9 this season it will be a BIG SUCCESS and based on roster turnover and Fazekas's injury I think for people to think anything else are INSANE with expectations for the year that are completely UNREASONABLE given our current roster. 

We had a lot of roster turnover,  Fazekas has been out and is just getting back into it, and our 2 best players are a freshman (clay) and a sophomore (JFL).  Every time we take the floor in MVC play we have the worst 5 man in the conference.  McMillan has improved a lot this year but is still a work in progress and Krikke has had moments but he is still just a freshman and is a bit of a project himself.   Sackey is having a sophomore slump which is really not that unusual, lots of really good players have went through them, but you can see the potential there.  We simply don't have enough shooters on the team and it does appear some help is on the way next year.  Eron and Robinson have been really HOT/COLD when it comes to hitting 3's and that is not on the coach.

I agree that we probably take too many 3's and Lottich needs to adjust when they are not falling, but I REALLY LIKE the offensive improvements this year.  Offense is getting better.  Defense is weaker but it has been good the last few years, we are mostly struggling with defense more because of missing pieces and youth than effort.       

Grow the hell up people.      I don't give a darn if you are tired of the excuse of "youth".   We had roster turnover, so now we are young again, deal with it.   Recruits coming in next year look to be difference makers.   Clay/Sackey/JFL/Krikke look like they are going to be something over the next 2 years.   The negativity here sometimes is insane.   

Compromise.   2 year extension.   By then we will know what we have.   

Sounds very reasonable; otherwise, Matt and the coaching staff are hamstrung when trying to recruit. Not extending his contract is the same as a vote of "no confidence."  That's a big turn off for better recruits with lots of choices, wondering if the coach who recruited them and they want to play for might be shown the door after they commit.

[NativeCheesehead]

Drake's success, especially last year, should basically kill the 'roster turnover' excuse, no?

[Just Sayin]

I'm guessing that Matt will be given at least another four year contract. A good family man, smart guy, players like him, he works hard, is trying to make things much better and his first four years haven't been disastrous, although we fans obviously would like to see much more winning to say the least. 
Although there may be concerns about Matt's performance, my guess is that they have probably been addressed by MLB and he sees that Matt not only agrees with those concerns, but he also is making some observable progress towards dealing with them.  I don't see him being given a two year contract. That would not be the right message to him if in fact he IS making steady progress.

[VUGrad1314]

I think fans are just eager to see the team compete again at this higher level like we've done at every level we've been in since 1995. It's hard to end up with nothing to play for late in the year year after year but that was the risk of moving up to the MVC and as much as I have lamented our poor results I accept that wholeheartedly. I just want a competitive MVC level athletic program and I think we'll get there eventually. The waiting as they say though is the hardest part. I will say this much As stated multiple times previously Lottich has dealt with an incredible amount of adversity in his tenure and that is in addition to taking a job that nobody would envy him for taking: being the first post-Drew coach at Valpo since Valpo became a nationally relevant program. That is a hard job for anybody and I could understand if anybody passed on it for that reason. I don't know if I would have had the stomach to take it if I were in Lottich's position and he deserves a lot of credit for that. I think fundamentally it didn't and doesn't matter how Lottich performed especially initially he had a tough uphill battle when it comes to being embraced by a fanbase so accustomed to one name on the sidelines and the struggles he has had (normal for every first time coach especially when faced with the injuries the NCAA issues and moving conferences) just made it harder for him to be embraced. I mean even Bryce had to win us over and he had the benefit of the Drew name. What's it like to coach Valpo and NOT have the Drew name? I don't envy Matt Lottich's position and I respect him for taking it on. I hope this long navigation down this frustrating road full of trials and tribulations leads somewhere promising. Matt Lottich deserves that. He deserves several positive breaks with all the bad ones he's had to swallow and I hope he gets them so that he can get the embrace from the entire Valpo community that a man of his character and ambition deserves. I am rooting for him.

[bbtds]

(I'd suggest Powell as well but I don't think he's coming back. He was after all offered the head job in the first place. Why decline it just to take the same job years later?)

Because the decision to move on with Bryce basically failed and this could now be a good move into a head coaching position at a school that he has many of the same beliefs.

[SanityLost17]

Drake's success, especially last year, should basically kill the 'roster turnover' excuse, no?

1.  Drake had shooters.  They shot a high percentage from 3 last year.   3 point line was closer last year as well.
2. MVC was historically bad last year.  Is up to 11th in RPI this year, that Drake team would have finished lower this year I guarantee it.
3.  More often than not teams with high turnover don't do well, but good job cherry picking a few examples to prove your point.  In general, the data shows you Drake was the exception to the rule. 

I can do this all day.   Logic > Emotion   and all the Lottich haters out there are speaking more from emotion than from logic.   

We just lost a game at Bradley... A GAME WE WERE SUPPOSED TO LOSE and that 90% of posters at the beginning of the season would have marked an "L" at the beginning of the season and all the sudden this was a bad loss?    <starts pulling out own hair>  C'mon!

[M]

Maybe I'm crazy but I'd do a 2 year extension especially if that would help keep any of our younger guys and recruits on board. I figured a .500 season was reasonable. I do like most of his recruits and the flashes of good play have been there.